Posted on 11/01/2024 10:59:09 AM PDT by Lowcountry
The Dem mail in vote in CA is about a million below where it should be at this point.
That will not change the outcome of the state—but is an indicator of just how horrible Kamala is doing in this race—and is one reason President Trump will easily win the national popular vote.
I voted in San Diego on the second day of early voting. No other voter was present when I was at the polling place, and there were very few open polling places.
I am a strong, intelligent female who voted last Friday in Phoenix, AZ, my husband voted for Trump and put my Mom (age 94) mail in ballot that she filled out, and my older sister (age 67)also mail in ballot into the box and my own ballot. Plus my daughter, her husband, my younger sister, my nephew and his wife (she’s NEVER voted before) ALL are voting for Donald J Trump.
I have a question about the early voting studies that have been posted.
Are they saying that the party affiliation is noted, but the actual vote is not available yet, or are the numbers indicative of the vote that was made?
This page summarizes early voting information:
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/
The data available differs by states.
Some states show the party registration of everyone who votes early.
Some do not.
Some have the information but have not released it yet.
Now that you are totally confused lets double down.
In some states the information is not released by the state but there are organizations that collect the data by actually looking at voter registration lists that are available. I do not know exactly how they do that—and they provide that information when they feel like it. Apparently there is some way to get that data.
No early votes are counted until election day—so all we have (at most) is the party registration of those who did the early vote.
Also note there are two separate categories of early voting:
—Vote by mail
—Vote in person
Those are in separate tabs for each state.
I have been using whatever information is available to make predictions for the election based on the Pew model that is shown here:
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/10/24/american-voters-expectations-for-voting-this-year/
We did not have this detailed type of analysis of who said they were voting when until 2024—so some folks are skeptical of how valid it is.
There are a few “weird” results using that model since some folks in different states and parties are more likely to vote early (by mail or in person) that other folks.
One other footnote—there are a few states that mail out blank ballots to every registered voter.
That muddies the water a little further.
Henrico VA, today 1 hour wait 4 people at early vote desk. Heard guard saying last Saturday was 2 hours heavy.
Living in a liberal area at this time, watched the polls while my wife went in to vote. I would say 95% of the people going in were female mostly Democrat votes. didn’t see too many men voting so I’my not exactly sure what that means.
Majority of Democrats are women and did see them coming out heavy but where are the Democrat men.
The Virginia early voting data supports what you are saying:
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/2024-general-election-early-vote-virginia/
We do not have an official breakdown by party from the state.
yeah you’re right.
that state is blue mail in city.
President Trump will easily win all of those states.
A careful analysis of early voting shows why this will be the case.
I will give you the links. You can do the number crunching for yourself.
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/10/24/american-voters-expectations-for-voting-this-year/
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/
Douglas County, NE (Omaha) showing 2-2.5 hour waiting lines at the election commission office, where you must go for early in-person voting. Per the reports I read, they were trying to help elderly and disabled people to a separate line that would move more quickly and made chairs and sit-down voting available. The local election commissioner is predicting overall 70% turnout for this round.
Most men vote on Election Day. If they are retired, they may vote early with their wives to keep the peace.
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