And yet RCP hasher down by 4
The way to analyze this race (imho) is to compare apples to apples—RCP Trump vs RCP Lake.
It looks like Lake is about four points behind Trump (give or take a point either way).
That means President Trump has to win Arizona by +5 or +6 to assure Lake’s election.
Can he do it?
Lets look at Arizona early voting by party:
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/2024-general-election-early-vote-arizona/
Imho—yes he can—because more Trump voters will add to his lead on election day.
How do I know this?
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/10/24/american-voters-expectations-for-voting-this-year/
Conclusion: Kari Lake better pack her stuff for DC. She is going to be a US Senator.
That is not wishing.
That is not speculation.
That is cold equations.
Of course they do. But, who knows. Will we really know next week. Hard to believe katie won the Gov race but. And if the rank and file dems are okay with the failed opponent and tampon timmy.........without their input......