Posted on 10/13/2024 8:51:26 AM PDT by DallasBiff
RUSH: Yesterday on this program I discussed the 1980 election, Ronaldus Magnus and Jimmy Carter, and in it I described the election night coverage that night and how I will never forget it. Because this was the election that they called it for Reagan before California had even closed the polls, it was such a landslide.
Yet the last polling data going into the election in 1980 had Jimmy Carter winning by nine points. And so Cookie went back to the archives and got a bunch of audio from John Chancellor, Judy Woodruff, Tom Brokaw and David Brinkley on NBC’s election night coverage of 1980 simply because of the way I had described it yesterday. It was even discussed on Fox & Friends today. So we’ll start with those two just to set it up.
(Excerpt) Read more at rushlimbaugh.com ...
I see simalaraities to 2024, I know vote fraud and ballot harvesting. The Trump campaign should still campaign that they are behind.
Flame away.
It’s too hard to go back to the old Rush archives. I’d like to purchase them on a flash driver when I’m in an old folks home.
I sure miss Rush and his wonderful Golden Mic!
So do I.
This is a total myth. Carter had been up early in the election cycle, but Reagan pulled ahead after the debates. Polls showed Reagan ahead, and his win was not a surprise at all. The last three polls before the election all showed Reagan up by 10+ points.
Really miss Rush at times like these. He had the ability to introduce themes, focus attention, and apply ridicule to those who deserved it, like no one else. Which has essentially been proven since his passing. A number have tried, but no one has succeeded in assembling an audience like his.
Having grown up in Massachusetts, I was a Democrat by default. I remember celebrating Jimmy Carter's win in 1976 as a 14 year old paperboy. When the copies of the Boston Herald landed on my doorstep at 5am to deliver, they still did not have a decision but my radio told me Carter was announced the winner at around 3:30am so I was literally dancing down the streets in the pre-dawn darkness as I made my deliveries.
What can I say? I was a naive kid.
Four years later, I started to realize what a bad president Carter was. Reagan did not yet appeal to me so I was going for John Anderson, who ran as an Independent as a Reagan alternative.
But one thing I will always remember, and this was the turning point of me becoming a conservative, was the Labor Day weekend speech by Reagan on the New Jersey shore, right across from the Statue of Liberty. As the boats waving American flags bobbed in the waters behind him, Reagan gave a very inspiring speech that still sticks with me today. One of the top songs in that time was "Sailing" by Christopher Cross and that song always reminds me of Reagan's Labor Day speech just outside of NY harbor with all those boats waving the American flags.
NBC NEWS NATONAL POLL: Tie.
Look at the horrific CBS poll. No different today.
A tie, if accurate, is great. Kamala needs to win the popular vote by 3% to win the electoral college. A tie should mean an easy win for Trump.
And if there are similar numbers in Trump’s favor November 5, NBC won’t say anything like that until the following Monday, if ever.
Sorry, but you are cleverly selective in your use of certain polls to come up with your accusation.
One poll, DMI, is an outlier. Throw that out and you will see a close polling with pluses for both Carter and Reagan. If you look at the October 26 polling, they are balanced and within the margin of error.
Also, you are not recognizing a trait of the professional (and frequently biased) polling groups, that after using polls early in the campaign to shape and influence voter sentiment, as Election Day approaches they start polling towards the eventual outcome, because they want to protect their reputations for business in the next election cycle.
Just look at the early polling in several past campaigns - Carter leading Reagan the old B-movie actor, by double digits; Mondale leading Reagan by double digits (he lost 49 states); Dukakis leading Bush by 17 points (another landslide).
In two weeks, polls will be somewhat closer to reality as these pollsters try to protect their reputations. Then they’ll be saying stuff like “we saw the last minute changes” or “the undecideds broke for Trump” or other nonsense. (By the way, there no undecided. They are people who are already decided but just think it’s none of your damn business.)
“Sorry, but you are cleverly selective in your use of certain polls to come up with your accusation.”
That is a list of every major poll, I was not selective.
“One poll, DMI, is an outlier. Throw that out and you will see a close polling with pluses for both Carter and Reagan.”
False, CSR was also +10 points for Reagan. And ABC/Harris, while not showing 10points, had Reagan +5.
Remember, the final debate between Reagan and Carter was Oct 28th, just weeks before the election, so there was late movement.
Lastly, just step back and take the bigger view. Leading up to the 1980 election. Reagan was ahead in 22 of 27 polls, Carter led in ZERO polls taken after Oct 30.
It is just stupid to say that Reagan’s win was a surprise, or that the polls didn’t see it.
What is stupid is that you didn’t grasp what I said.
Late polls always converge to the real voter sentiments because polling organizations are trying to save their reputations for future business.
You cite polls only in the last weeks of the campaign, when pollsters were done with vote persuasion and drifting toward reality.
In 1980, polls in September, August, July, back to January average well in Carter’s column, especially after he knocked off Kennedy. Reagan was thedemocrat’s preferred opponent in those months leading up to the last weeks.
You’re talking to someone who worked in that campaign.
And those same polls had the democrats maintaining the Senate. Reagan coattailed a sweep of 8 democrat seats to bring along the first Republican Senatein decades. The polls were wrong there too.
These are polls taken right after the last debate, late by today’s standards, but not late at the time. Early polls looks better for Carter because that reflected reality. People misinterpret polls as future predictions when they are just a snapshot of sentiment at the time. They move towards reality because reality moves towards reality.
The best Trump can do is repeating 2016 plus winning a state or two no one would have predicted (VA? NM?).
Are you Kamala’s speechwriter?
Are you oldbill, or senilebill?
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