Posted on 10/07/2024 8:36:44 AM PDT by Signalman
The 2024 presidential election continues to be one of the closest in history, with Donald Trump and Kamala Harris running neck-and-neck nationally and in the swing states. Who has the advantage going into the final few weeks of the race? New county-level polling out of Pennsylvania suggests it's the former president.
According to a survey conducted by Cygnal and sponsored by The Daily Wire, Trump leads in the bellwether counties of Erie and Northampton. Those were won by the overall winner of the 2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020 elections, making them crucial battlegrounds in what is already the most important swing state.
The two counties, Erie and Northampton, have voted with the winning side in every election since 2008 — they sided with President Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, Donald Trump in 2016, and Joe Biden in 2020. Pennsylvania is considered one of the most important battleground states in the 2024 election with most polls showing a statistical tie between Trump and Harris.
Trump is ahead in the swing districts by just one percent, 49 to 48, according to the Cygnal survey.
“In a reversal from 2020, Pennsylvania’s ‘Bellwether Counties’ have narrowly swung back to Donald Trump,” the pollster wrote, determining that the former president is winning over traditional Democrat voters that view Harris as too radical. “As Democrats have a 4-point party registration advantage in these counties, this is further evidence of these ancestral Democrats increasingly leaving the party of their forefathers.”
I've laid out the case before, but I'll reiterate it again. Whoever wins Pennsylvania is almost certainly going to win the election. Yes, analysts can play with the map, shuffling out this state for that state, but if a nominee doesn't win The Keystone State, they probably lost Michigan and Wisconsin as well. That is why the Trump campaign and its surrounding PACs have spent far more in Pennsylvania than any other state.
For Trump to be leading in these counties, albeit by a slim margin, just four weeks out from election day is a very good sign for him. Back in early August, there was some thought that Harris would pull away and create an environment more akin to 2020, where Biden consistently led Trump nationally and in the swing states by sometimes sizable margins. Instead, the race has gone the other way, with Trump regaining the lead in several election-making states and keeping it extremely tight at the national level, where Republicans enjoy an electoral college advantage.
That's pretty remarkable when you think about it. Trump has been criminally convicted in New York at the hands of a partisan prosecutor who pushed a never-before-tried legal theory to one of the most biased judges in the country. He's been nearly assassinated once and dodged a second attempt a month later. He's got a federal indictment in which the special prosecutor fought to release the "evidence" just before the election for political reasons. Yet, he's in a race that's so close one can only conclude he has the advantage.
Conventional wisdom would say that if Trump is only down a point or two nationally, he's going to win. He doesn't even need the same large polling errors we saw in 2016 and 2020 at this point. With that on the table, is there anything that could even happen at this point that could shift the race out of its current condition? I'm struggling to imagine it. Trump is the most known commodity on the planet, and the more people learn about Harris, the less they like her. One thing is for sure. This is going to be an exciting election night.
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If your state experiences a natural disaster who do you want as president.
Trump in a landslide, if it is a fair election.
We could all see in 2020 what was going to happen with the cheat-by-mail-in ballots. What I was worried about was whether the Dems would be able to manufacture enough of them to overcome Trump's winning margin. My fears were well grounded. When it comes to cheating, Democrats have a work ethic that not even the Devil can match.
This time around, we can all see that the millions of illegals that have been allowed to pour into this country are the 2024 version of cheat-by-mail-in ballots. I have valid concerns that the Democrats have registered literally millions of them and have placed them in PA, AZ, GA, MI, and OH. I pray to God that Trump will win in a landslide that will make this too big to rig.
I’d like to jump in before any of the defeatist whiners and offer this: they’re going to cheat. The maximum margin of cheat is about 5%. If we can beat the margin of cheat we win; if not, we lose
MAGA.
Hell, ballots were being diverted and trucked into Harrisburg PA from New York last cycle. Then the trailer “stolen” overnight.
>The maximum margin of cheat is about 5%. If we can beat the margin of cheat we win; if not, we lose
I think we saw MAXIMUM CHEAT in 2020, because of the huge amounts of mail ins they could exploit, as well as all the judges that let any kind of ballot in.
The real danger for them is that if Trump wins heavy (like popular vote win that night), then they’re going to give up on trying to backfill ballots after the fact. I think this will probably happy and people will be standing outside of voter counting places to put pressure on them to finish.
But who knows. I don’t doubt there will be a huge power outage and when the lights come on, Kamala will be the winner. Then whatever the next step is, comes.
Well a lot is going to depend on whether sufficient voters can get to a polling place or even find a polling place in South GA, W North Carolina and Florida which has another Cat 4 on the way to an area that has not yet cleaned up from Helene.
I am both terrified that Harris would win and very hopeful that the race is not as tight as the phony polls show. There are encouraging indications everywhere that Trump-Vance are in the lead and pulling away. I hope I’m not being unrealistically optimistic.
Predicted Cat 5 Milton by National Hurticane Center. Hits between Tampa and Ft. Myers
He’s now ahead in Georgia as well by 1.5 and 4 above her in the electoral map
What the hell is with Virginia though? She’s up by almost 5 in Virginia. I didn’t realize Virginia was so commie.
And just to show how incredibly effed up California is, she’s TWENTY FOUR points above Trump in California!!!!!! Freakin’ joke. This is a state where Reagan was Governor, a state he won as POTUS in two seperate elections now it’s got elections like a commie dictatorship. That crap is NOT legit, 24 points my ass! This is NOT the USA. A state with a population of 40 million people and you mean to tell me every person living there is hardcore democrat? BS!
“I’d like to jump in before any of the defeatist whiners and offer this: they’re going to cheat. The maximum margin of cheat is about 5%. If we can beat the margin of cheat we win; if not, we lose”
I’m curious. How, exactly, did you calculate that 5% “maximum margin of cheat”? What criteria did you use? I ask, because from my perspective... looking back on the election in 2020... the cheat margin seemed a bit more than a mere 5%. Especially since they suceeded so splendidly to steal the election back then.
Now... it’s true that things are different this time. But... they still have mail-in ballots going for them, but also other means... like illegals voting in some states, ballot harvesting, rigged machines still in use, and fraudulent foreign ballots. They’ll also be ‘filling in’ all those ballots for those illegals they have registered over the past four years in all those migrant centers.
The main thing we have going for our side this time is the overwhelming support of Trump and the equally overwhelming dislike of Harris/Walz... along with the dismal economy they have created over these past four years.
But I’m wondering if you are trying to make it look like a ‘sure thing’ this time with that measly 5% “cheat margin”. Rule #1 is never, ever underestimate your opponent. And in this instance... that equates to never underestimating the Democrats’ penchant, ability and willingness to cheat a win. And right now... they are even more desperate to keep Trump from winning than they were in 2020. That means that our side has to look at this election as a matter of life or death event (our life or death). Because it, quite literally, is.
It’s all relative. Biden won by 29 points here. Bear in mind Trump got over 6,000,000 votes here deep behind enemy lines
Me, too.
We must pray without ceasing. 1 Thessalonians 5:16-17.
There is no "maximum margin of cheat". The Democrats will cheat as much as they can to ensure their candidates win the "election".
Cheating must be actively suppressed before and during and after the counts.
Chain of custody must be observed for ballot handling. The injection of fraudulent ballots into the count must be prevented. Non-citizens and non-residents must not be permitted to cast ballots. Machine counts cannot be trusted and must be audited whenever possible.
Increased turnout will help, but it is not enough to decide the election.
Lawsuits after the count will be too late and will fail.
The commie left likes backing a dictator that leads their party and the nation without a single vote.
The Keystone State is key
GWB vs Gore was closer.
If Gore had taken his home state, GWB would have lost.
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