Posted on 10/07/2024 9:03:46 AM PDT by willk
Vice President Kamala Harris’s narrow national lead over former President Donald Trump has tightened in the wake of a well-received debate performance last week by Ohio Sen. JD Vance, according to a new Yahoo News/YouGov poll.
The previous Yahoo News/YouGov survey showed Harris (50%) ahead of Trump (45%) by five percentage points immediately following September’s presidential debate — her strongest showing to date in a two-way matchup among registered voters.
But now Harris (48%) edges Trump (46%) by just two points.
The new poll of 1,714 U.S. adults, which was conducted from Oct. 2 to 4, finds Harris with an even smaller advantage among registered voters when third-party candidates are included (46% to 45%). Among likely voters, the vice president’s lead vanishes entirely (47% to 47%).
(Excerpt) Read more at yahoo.com ...
If the race is indeed tied nationwide then Trump will probably sweep the battleground states. Trump is up 7% in Polymarket and up 12.5% in Pennsylvania in Election Betting Odds this morning.
From the 4th paragraph: “Among likely voters, the vice president’s lead vanishes entirely (47% to 47%).”
I prefer the more elegant term “defeatist wailing” to “crap,” but it’s a matter of semantics and I agree with your point
The Electoral Map says it all.
If Trump can win PA, he likely wins NC, GA, AZ, too. If he does that, he’s President.
This poll is terrible news for Kamala and the Democrats. If this trend continues, she is doomed.
“I prefer the more elegant term “defeatist wailing” to “crap,” but it’s a matter of semantics and I agree with your point”
I will try and remember to use that term next time👍. I hope to be posting lots of good news for Trump right up to the election😊.
Like Richard Barris said a lot of these polls don’t even know how to poll people so to justify their polling method they’re bringing up their neck in neck, tight race, but if Trump honestly would’ve been losing all you would see would be a Harris lead constantly by 5-10 points. But you don’t because they’re trying to persuade people that Kamala is worthy of their vote. It’s all manipulated people! I just pray some of these pollster, when the truth comes out, will be kick out of business! Dishonesty is all they have and once the people see that, they too will be ignored. Just Like the media pukes who are going the way of the dinosaur. They Fake their numbers just to give one candidate a lift and it’s always for the rats. Come on people wake up smell the coffee, the way they replaced dementia Joe in a heartbeat these polls, which are paid in the multiple millions to fake it, is all part of the plan!
NYC now has RCV for a reason.
Blue state, my backside.
Trump is now up 8% on Polymarket. He was down 2 yesterday. Something major in the news or a poll I did not hear about?
I doubt Kamala was ever really in the lead.
This ties in with who you see Kamala spending time with now and in the near future:
- “Call Her Daddy” sex podcast;
- Stephen Colbert;
- Howard Stern;
She is still trying to motivate her core base. Nothing wrong with that, especially when elections are going to be squeakers. But she’s focusing entirely on that, and isn’t doing anything to reach independents.
That tells me she’s 1. polling “beyond all hope” with independents, and 2. her base is unmotivated by her.
Yougov is a crap outfit. They had 2020 being Biden by 10 he won by 4.5
2016 Hillary By 4 she won by 2.1.
Both of these were outside the margin of error of their polling in favor of the democrat.
So two things at 48-46 even if accurate Trump would almost certainly win the EC, and the MOE is almost certainly more than 2 points in this poll.. so based on past performance it’s likely Trump is winning the national vote as well.
She didn’t iMHO ever have the lead
Response bias by democrats happy to have anyone but Biden and sugar coverage gave her a bump that was never real
At national level this probably is a 51/47 52/48 Trump race in my estimation at the moment.
However I honestly expect this to continue to break Trumps way over the coming few weeks.
Honestly as long as Trump wins by 1 vote great but I am honestly expecting Trump to win the national popular vote which will just be icing on the cake
Two thoughts:
1. Polling “Adults” is a total waste of time and not a predictive model. Has to be “likely voters” to even have a shot - even then - have to look at cross tabs to see weighting of D’s and R’s. The over-emphasis on D’s has diminished somewhat vs. two prior cycles.
2. The more she takes interviews, the more we have clips evidencing, once again, her inability to convey the simplest of concepts. One is more embarrassing than the last. While I think this could be because of a lack of intelligence, it could also be lack of any guiding principles; she doesn’t have core beliefs nor understand the “why” - she is simply programmed (when she can remember and when the teleprompter is working) to spew out progressive theories.
As an aside, the clip of her when her teleprompter froze in the last few days - repeating “32 days... 32 days.. - was priceless. She wants to run the country and make real decisions.
I just can’t understand how this is even close. I guess when you give away an extra $2T a year, a lot of people are supportive...
““Call Her Daddy” sex podcast;
- Stephen Colbert;
- Howard Stern;”
I just saw a clip of Call Her Daddy. Absolutely disgusting.
I once was flipping through channels years ago and Howard the Pig was interviewing a porn star. He was asking her about the time she was being filmed in a “double penetration” scene as her husband came home and acted like it was nothing. I’ve seen more intelligence in Bevis and Butthead. Then there is the Dana Plato episode where he bullied her and she ended up killing herself. This man is a woman hating pig and Harris is going on his show?
Kamala Harris’s narrow national lead over former President Donald Trump and candy is good for your health in mass quantities.
7% more than she needs for a voter fraud “win”
The vote of an “unlikely voter” counts just as much if they show up to the polls...or have a prefilled out ballot put in their face to be signed.
Hence, why canvassing/GOTV is so important. There are a lot of people who *would* vote for Trump if they just show up and vote who simply don’t...same for the other side.
Well nothing says respecting and empowering women and standing against misogyny than appearing on those shows, especially Howard Stern and the other one you have summarized for us...
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