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Tim Sheehy's Chances of Beating Jon Tester Surge in Montana: Montana Poll (Sheehy: 50% Tester: 43%
msn.com via newsweek ^ | 9/24/2024 | Ewan Palmer

Posted on 09/24/2024 11:29:30 AM PDT by Signalman

A Napolitan News survey, conducted by RMG Research, of 491 likely voters found that 50 percent would back Sheehy, compared to 43 percent who would support Tester in November. In a previous Napolitan survey conducted in August, Tester was ahead in the Montana Senate race by 5 points (49 percent to 44).

The outcome of the Senate race between Tester and Sheehy, along with the general election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris in November, could end up determining who controls the upper chamber next year.

The Democrats currently control the Senate by a 51-49 seat margin, including four independent senators who caucus or align with the party. The GOP are expected to flip the West Virginia seat held by outgoing independent Senator Joe Manchin—giving Republicans an estimated 50 seats at least.

If Tester wins the Senate race, but Trump wins the presidential election, Republican vice president JD Vance will act as tiebreaker in Senate votes. If Harris wins the presidential election, the Democratic vice president Tim Walz will be tiebreaker in a 50-50 split.

If Sheehy wins the Montana seat, the GOP will be on course for 51-49 outright control of the upper chamber from January 2025, barring upsets elsewhere.

(Excerpt) Read more at msn.com ...


TOPICS: Miscellaneous
KEYWORDS: elections; montana; newsweak; sheehy; tester
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1 posted on 09/24/2024 11:29:30 AM PDT by Signalman
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To: Signalman

All good news gratefully welcomed.


2 posted on 09/24/2024 11:33:08 AM PDT by JayGalt (Fight! Fight! Fight!)
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To: Signalman

51-49 is far too narrow for the GOP. If it’s that close, the DEMs can steal one more Senate seat along with the presidency, making Walz the tiebreaker in the Senate. Let that thought soak in for a moment.


3 posted on 09/24/2024 11:36:31 AM PDT by CatOwner (Don't expect anyone, even conservatives, to have your back when the SHTF in 2021 and beyond.)
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To: Signalman

Tester is done, hes been running behind all cycle... he does tend to outperform his polling, but I think times finally run out for him... State has moved WAY right from when he first rose to power...

Though honestly I don’t think the state has moved right as much as it is the democrats have just moved to radically to the left.

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/AWz3tpgwAe7vzRKZ/


4 posted on 09/24/2024 11:39:01 AM PDT by HamiltonJay ( )
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To: HamiltonJay

He apparently bought the nomination. Good for him. My issue is there was no other possible winner other than the governor who chose to stay in the statehouse.


5 posted on 09/24/2024 11:40:56 AM PDT by DIRTYSECRET
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To: HamiltonJay

I can’t figure out why the people of MT (one of the most GOP states in the nation) keep putting Tester back in office.


6 posted on 09/24/2024 11:47:50 AM PDT by Signalman (I am not a snob. Ask anyone who matters.)
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To: Signalman
Sheehy is the real deal! A great American. I was first introduced to him on the Victor Davis Hanson podcast a couple months back and was SO impressed. He is very worthy of a donation if you have a few dollars...

"Huge Turnout for Tim Sheehy and Kristi Norm Across Montana." Sheehy and Noem (Gov. S. Dakota) rallied this past weekend in Bozeman, Billings, and Kalispell. The South Dakota governor came to Montana to rally Sheehy! That is wonderful.

Trump and Sheehy rallied in Bozeman last month.


7 posted on 09/24/2024 11:53:55 AM PDT by ProtectOurFreedom (May the soy boys, feminazis, and alphabet weirdos choke on the toxic fumes of our masculinity)
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To: Signalman

Tester is a fat alcoholic who needs to be put out to pasture.


8 posted on 09/24/2024 11:56:41 AM PDT by 43north (Dear God, after I die don't let me vote democrat.)
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To: Signalman

Wait for the 3am indian reservation votes to show up...lol


9 posted on 09/24/2024 12:01:02 PM PDT by gopno1
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To: Signalman; HamiltonJay
2018 was a midterm, and the Democrats worked The Cheat HARD in Montana.

Montana Losertarians crimped the Republican candidates in 2006 and 2012 [BADLY in 2012].

Of course, there's a Losertarian in place for 2024, to Assistant Democrat for Testes.

10 posted on 09/24/2024 12:02:02 PM PDT by kiryandil (Kraft durch Freude! - The Kamunist and The Walzrus )
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To: Signalman

Incumbency has power folks.

But Tester’s time has probably run out.

MT has moved so far right, and the democrats are so far out in the radical left field area, even Tester is unlikely to pull out another win.

I mean when he rose to prominence Democrats actually held both houses in MT.. today Republicans hold SUPERMAJORITIES in both houses there....

That’s a huge massive consistent and ever growing rejection of the Democrat party...


11 posted on 09/24/2024 12:06:10 PM PDT by HamiltonJay ( )
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To: kiryandil

Yes, the Libertarians did play spoiler to keep him in power...

But I think the jig is finally up for him.

We will see how it plays out, but given its a presidential year, and MT is now so deep red its got super majorities in both houses for Republicans and Republicans hold ever single statewide office.

Tester has been the lone hold out, that’s managed to hold on.. but I think this time, especially with all those 50-50 votes where Kamala made 51 votes for Biden’s horrible agenda, he can’t hide... he can’t pretend he was a moderate... or independent. For much of the mess that the US has had to deal with for the last 3+ years, no Democrat Senator can claim they weren’t part of it... every one of them had to vote for the crap in order for it to pass... so they can’t pretend they were independent etc.

We’ll see how it plays out, but I think Tester is done.


12 posted on 09/24/2024 12:11:51 PM PDT by HamiltonJay ( )
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To: Signalman

Be great to get rid of that fat turd Tester.


13 posted on 09/24/2024 12:16:23 PM PDT by bigbob
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To: HamiltonJay

**Yes, the Libertarians did play spoiler to keep him in power...**

Washington state. I can remember when republican Slade Gordon lost his senate race to Maria Cantwell by 2,000 votes. The Libertarian got 16k. I don’t know what kind of republican Gordon was but the seat’s been gone for 24 years. Then there’s that Conrad fella who lost Montana. Stupidity on his part I do believe. Then there’s Stevens in Alaska. Sounds like our senate leaders gotta be meaner like Pelosi when the situation calls for it.


14 posted on 09/24/2024 12:51:49 PM PDT by DIRTYSECRET
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To: Signalman

Tester is finally toast—long, long, long overdo!


15 posted on 09/24/2024 1:56:23 PM PDT by volare737 (Diversity is something to be overcome, not celebrated.)
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To: JayGalt

Good news, but a sample size below 500 indicates that we can’t get complacent about this race. I’ve already donated several hundred dollars to Sheehy and I plan to send more. I’ve also donated to Moreno in Ohio. With Vance on the ticket, we might snag that seat.also


16 posted on 09/24/2024 2:47:10 PM PDT by phil00071
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To: Signalman

I think there’s no doubt the Republicans pick up Senate seats in West Virginia, Montana and Ohio.

The questions are Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Arizona. I’d be pretty happy if the Republicans could get a 2-2 split.


17 posted on 09/24/2024 2:58:07 PM PDT by FLT-bird
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To: FLT-bird

AZ sadly isn’t looking good.. Lake is a great candidate but clearly there something that voters in that state just seem to be put off by, at least thats how it seems.

I live in PA, and I think McCormick has been running a good campaign, however, I think the only way he can win is if Trump just crushes it here, and his coattails can carry McCormick across the line. I’m not a huge fan of McCormick, he is indeed another wall street Republican, card carrying member of the WEF, and far more RINO that MAGA.. however even with that said, he’s head and shoulders above the POS they ran last time named OZ.

Casey is a lousy campaigner, always has been, he’s never really faced a strong challenge, the GOP pretty much has refused to take the field in every one of his previous elections.

McCormick is working to tie Casey to the failed Biden agenda, which isn’t hard to do since most of the Biden Agenda was passed with 50-50 votes with Kamala providing the tie breaker, so no Democrat Senator can run away from the votes.

When it is all said and done if McCormick wins it will be interesting to see the results. If McCormick outperforms Trump then the argument for more RINO type candidates will grow even louder (this is where the state GOP in PA has always lived, they HATE TRUMP.). If however McCormick underperforms Trump like OZ did, the pressure for leadership of the GOP of PA to change and put up more MAGA style candidates will grow.

We will see in a few weeks how PA goes.

MI & WI, I can’t say, I would say they probably fall in the same category of PA..... If TRUMP wins, and wins big there, his coattails may provide a path.

Republicans are working hard to nationalize the race and tie the democrat candidates to Biden/Harris policies... If this is successful, and Trump wins and wins big, there almost certainly will be coattails that will pull over some candidates that likely would fall otherwise.

If I had to lay odds at the moment, I would say likelihood of pickups in WI, MI, PA or AZ are possible but not likely, but momentum appears to be in the right direction to increase those odds between now and election day.

Honestly I expect a pretty major collapse of Harris before election day... Trump always closes Strong.... I don’t see major shift her direction coming when her policy statements are basically “I came from a middle class home.”

I mean seriously the Harris Walz campaign is literally a Seinfeld episode, its a campaign about nothing... keeping that up for another 6 weeks, and somehow thinking at the end of those 6 weeks the undecideds are going to break to you when you have given them nothing, in any major degree, is impossible.


18 posted on 09/25/2024 6:05:49 AM PDT by HamiltonJay ( )
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To: HamiltonJay
I mean seriously the Harris Walz campaign is literally a Seinfeld episode, its a campaign about nothing... keeping that up for another 6 weeks, and somehow thinking at the end of those 6 weeks the undecideds are going to break to you when you have given them nothing, in any major degree, is impossible.

True

19 posted on 09/25/2024 6:09:32 AM PDT by 1Old Pro
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To: HamiltonJay
Lake is a great candidate but clearly there something that voters in that state just seem to be put off by, at least thats how it seems.

There will be women who vote for Trump but refuse to fill in the circle for Lake. There will be Hispanics who won't vote for Harris, but who will eagerly fill in the circle for Gallego - simply because of his surname.

Lake ran about 200K votes behind state treasurer Kimberly Yee (R) on the 2022 ballot. This could certainly be due to fraud, but Lake seems to have a huge likability issue communicating with women and RINOs that isn't apparent to male MAGA supporters who like the way Trump talks.

It might just be that a loudmouth real estate developer from Queens can get away with saying things that a well-known - and previously thought to be Democrat - news reporter from Arizona cannot. Her authenticity comes into question. People who dislike her aren't necessarily voting for her opponent - they just aren't voting for her.

20 posted on 09/25/2024 6:25:28 AM PDT by Mr. Jeeves ([CTRL]-[GALT]-[DELETE])
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