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Polymarket Election Odds: Trump 52% Harris 47%
self ^ | August 20, 2024 | self

Posted on 08/20/2024 8:07:14 PM PDT by lasereye

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Their current odds are the inverse of what Predictit is showing.

I think the participants at Polymarket can be assumed to be pretty sophisticated since it's all crypto. In fact I learned of it through an investment newsletter I subscribe to that includes crypto recommendations. They get into a lot of so-called "alt coins" that most people have never heard of.

According to today's newsletter:

As of this writing, Trump leads Kamala by 2 percentage points, a sharp whipsaw after Harris had taken the lead in the weeks prior.

That was this morning. Now he's ahead by 5%.

1 posted on 08/20/2024 8:07:14 PM PDT by lasereye
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Encouraging, yes.

However I have long subscribed to Brother Limbaugh’s advice that there is a long way to November. Things happen.

Keep on keeping on!


2 posted on 08/20/2024 8:27:01 PM PDT by llevrok (Say NO to a fourth Obama term!)
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To: lasereye

May the trend continue, and her trouncing in November be a thorough one. We’ve all had rather enough, thank you.


3 posted on 08/20/2024 8:28:09 PM PDT by drwoof
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To: lasereye

BOMBSHELL: RFK Jr. Ready To ENDORSE Trump And BEAT Kamala: ‘We Will Win...’ | DNC in PANIC

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_zGYbp61-SY


4 posted on 08/20/2024 8:28:59 PM PDT by ATOMIC_PUNK (I'm not a psychopath, I'm a high-functioning sociopath.~ Sherlock Holmes )
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To: lasereye

Harris peaked early. We’ve gotten more than 3 months left


5 posted on 08/20/2024 9:06:51 PM PDT by struggle
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To: lasereye

Maybe they heard the rumors about Kamala’s drinking problem and the unrealized capital gains tax that she supposedly is proposing.


6 posted on 08/20/2024 9:06:56 PM PDT by CaptainK ("No matter how cynical you get, it is impossible to keep up” -)
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To: llevrok

Rush always used to say, “The events that will determine the election have not happened yet.”


7 posted on 08/20/2024 9:08:33 PM PDT by july4thfreedomfoundation (Disband and Defund the putrid FBI. America does not need an out of control Gestapo)
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To: lasereye

I’ve not seen an election in which the Republican was ahead anytime in my life, except perhaps in 2016. It’s almost unprecedented for polls to put the Republican anywhere near tied with the Democrat at this point in the process.

Normally, the polls have just two states: (a) the Democrat is comfortably ahead, and (b) the race is “too close to call.”

That PDJT is ahead is encouraging, but I don’t believe any of them. Except possibly the Las Vegas and London odds makers.


8 posted on 08/20/2024 9:15:10 PM PDT by Steely Tom ([Voter Fraud] == [Civil War])
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To: lasereye

You never know, but the betting markets - at the end are accurate. I’ve seen some analysis showing that Kamala needs to be over 3& up in the polls in the swing states at election time to overcome the extra ballots that must be filed in the deep blue precincts, even if the number is over of the number of register voters.


9 posted on 08/20/2024 9:21:40 PM PDT by calico_thompson (Vanity sarcasm)
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To: lasereye

There is no way Harris has that much of a chance. Tonight was the first time I thought she had any chance of winning, and that just means she had a .01 percent chance instead of zero.


10 posted on 08/20/2024 9:29:17 PM PDT by Kleon
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To: lasereye

question:does Predictit involve money/betting?


11 posted on 08/20/2024 10:22:01 PM PDT by Chode (there is no fall back position, there's no rally point, there is no LZ... we're on our own. #FJB)
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To: lasereye

https://electionbettingodds.com/

The above website runs the average of All the major betting sites. Trump just took the lead there this evening. First lead in weeks.


12 posted on 08/20/2024 10:29:22 PM PDT by Tipllub
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you can sense it swinging back to Trump...she finally opened her mouth with the most absurd, communist economic plan. NY TIMES, WASH POST, CNN etc all ripped it to shreds. And this is just her first comment on anything. You just know a crazy, lunatic interview is still coming. Dem Senate candidates are being asked about her plan, trying to defend it. Casey in Pennsylvania was asked to name one food distributor that was “price gouging”. He stuttered and stammered all over himself. Was funny to watch.


13 posted on 08/20/2024 10:35:02 PM PDT by basalt
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To: basalt

This kind of has the feel of 1972


14 posted on 08/20/2024 10:40:22 PM PDT by BigEdLB ( Let’s go Brandon)
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To: Chode
does Predictit involve money/betting?

Yes.

15 posted on 08/20/2024 10:52:04 PM PDT by lasereye
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To: lasereye

thank you


16 posted on 08/20/2024 10:58:11 PM PDT by Chode (there is no fall back position, there's no rally point, there is no LZ... we're on our own. #FJB)
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To: Tipllub

I wonder if the weirdness of the Dem convention has something to do with that?


17 posted on 08/20/2024 11:11:28 PM PDT by lasereye
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To: lasereye

Related article:

https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/wedpolling-shows-harris-leading-trump-industry-experts-see-skewed-samples

“Polling showing Harris in lead flagged by industry experts for voter samples”

From the article:

“So what they’re doing is they’re polling fewer Republicans. They’re polling a disproportionate number of Biden 2020 voters in these states that were dead even,” pollster John McLaughlin said. There does not to be any consensus on any polls’ accuracy.”


18 posted on 08/20/2024 11:16:45 PM PDT by CFW
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To: lasereye

You beat me to it!

If Kamala has peaked this is good news for DJT, but obviously we still have a long way to go. The markets have already reversed 3x this year.


19 posted on 08/20/2024 11:21:56 PM PDT by KingofZion
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To: lasereye

I check Drudge occasionally and today they’re showcasing a piece on Kamala’s pants suits as power dressing. Bwahaha!


20 posted on 08/20/2024 11:41:40 PM PDT by Ciexyz (Prayers for America and Israel.)
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