Me too. Instead every morning I spin this wheel once. It tells me if Trump is ahead on that day.
Posted on 08/06/2024 9:12:52 PM PDT by Lod881019
https://www.npr.org/2024/08/05/nx-s1-5061729/harris-trump-swing-states-electoral-map With all the doom and gloom over polls showing Kamala with a lead by a few points in the popular vote Donald is in excellent shape to win this currently according to NPR at 268 electoral votes. Putting this in context on this day in 2016 Hillary lead by 4.5 points and in 2020 Joe lead by 9 points. We kinda know how those both went.
What a joke. If Trump gets 268 electoral votes, he loses. How is that good?
you have polls that says he is up, then there are polls that say he is down. I give up on the polls.
If you took a second to go to the link, it would show you that NPR is tracking Trump with a lock on 268 votes, with Heels up Harris only having a lock on 226.
The Tossups are WI, MI, and PA....with Trump needing to win one...an Harris needing to make a sweep to win.
There is no link.
Well, as noted earlier today when Harris and Walz kicked off their Battleground State Tour, they next head to Eau Claire, Wisconsin; Detroit, Michigan; The Research Triangle in North Carolina; Savannah, Georgia; Phoenix, Arizona; and Las Vegas, Nevada; through August 10. That covers what is likely to be the deciding states this fall.
The Democrats count the votes in those states.
Only if RFK Jr. gets the other two. Then it’s thrown into the House.
Because she sits at 226 I can show you the numbers for Redfeld that came out tonight showing him winning Pennsylvania and Michigan if you want.
Then again that kinda defeats your narrative doesn’t it.
I agree...thats a problem...
And the “GOP” counts them in GA....just like 2020
Pretty sure the dems count them in NC...and the dems haven’t won that state’s electoral votes since 2008
Point being..I get what your saying, but I can only hope that we are all much more savvy to the shit they are gonna try to pull...and have our eyes, ears, and lawyers ready to go when they pull it.
What else can we do?
There are no leads. There are only changes, provided turnout models are held constant, and there has been some tweaking in the last week.
No one knows what the turnout profile will be. No one. In the past week I have seen polls EXPLICITLY say in their crosstabs that they were oversampling blacks. There is entirely too much incorrect use of the word oversample. They used the word correctly.
Sampling 45 Dems and 43 GOP is not oversampling Dems. Oversampling is when you intentionally violate your own turnout model, which CBS did a few days ago. This corrupts the ability to see change.
But the campaign people know this. They won’t corrupt themselves.
Putting that aside, btw, I should like to note that 270 Electoral Votes is not enough to win. Unlike historical norms, of late it has become somewhat common to have Faithless Electors.
If you are relying on 270, it won’t be enough — absent a vicious, violent intervention by Lara Trump at state GOP mechanisms to do everything imaginable to purge the Elector inventory of GOPe.
Even if Trump did not win WI, MI, PA in your scenario he could get to a 269-269 tie by winning that stubborn Nebraska district and then win the Presidency due to Republicans having the majority of state delegations in the House.
No it doesn’t. Please shoe me the numbers. Thanks
If you think there is a path to 270 for any democrat you are delusional
WI MI and PA. Two of the three have a history of being rigged for the rats. MI is not. That’s why Walz is VP candidate.
Me too. Instead every morning I spin this wheel once. It tells me if Trump is ahead on that day.
I expect the bounce to continue and start being reflected in the state polls. I would expect the polls to stabilize after the DNC convention and then start to swing back if there are any debates.
-PJ
Walz is from MN.
We won't see a debate this time.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.