Family used to know the legendary forecaster from the Miami NHC— who moved up to near Canaveral and built a truly hurricane proof home- prestressed concrete anti-wind design, the works. Can’t recall his name. He was always on national, think it was ABC— and always accurate. Will have to rack memory from the days before the internet.
I no doubt saw your friend on TV talking hurricanes. There are broadly speaking two approaches to weather forecasting. The modern approach relies on masses of data and sophisticated computer models. Until recently, the traditional approach, which uses maps, history, and weather cycles, often did better.