I think the actual game changer was the destruction of the air defense umbrella over Ukraine. Today, Russian Aviation is acting in a decisive manner. The FABs are a symptom of the greater problem. However, the FABs themselves removed the 2014 Fortifications Ukraine used so successfully for 10-years.
It has only been 3-4 days since the first of five were dropped.
Now the Russians are ready to break down the Ukrainian strongholds one by one.
FAB Accuracy Quickly Approaches 100% | The Dangerous Black Sea Incident*. Military Summary 2024.06.25
Russia forced US recon Drone out of Black Sea according to reports.
Russia started really using FAB500s in quantity in December 2023. By the end Janaury 2024, they were advancing against all the STALEMATE FORTIFICATIONS. The FAB250s had been the primary air dropped munition. Now the FAB500s and 1500s have broken the SEIGE. The FAB3000s will have a devasting affect upon the soldiers.
There are 5000s and 9000s also in the works. The SU34s cannot possibly drop such hugh munitions. This means the TU22M which can drop multiple’s. We are going to see a squadron of TU22s level an entire city within a couple of weeks.
Ukraine cannot now defend positions as they did for the first 2.5 years of this war.
The FABs were the turning point breaking the Stalemate and Ukraine has lost for all intents and purposes, although the fighting will continue, the end result is no longer in doubt.
Some will argue it is not over until the last shot is fired.
Realists recognize the reality of when there was no chance of winning or holding your positions.
The only measure some think matter is the map. The FABs changed the Maps. The Maps changed because their are no longer sufficient forces to man them. Ukraine fights a forward war - thus they are drawing down forces in every direction.
The bear will increase pressure along 1500 km of front lines, and it is now poking back. Ukraine scrambles to redeploy forces and a patient Russia allows them to continue into the kill zones.
The TU22s dropping two to four or more of these in groups of 2, 4, or 6, can erase an entire town with one strike.
You are right. The FABs can’t be delivered without air superiority.