Posted on 06/18/2024 11:46:49 PM PDT by mbrfl
This is an invitation to an open discussion on whether or not China will move on Taiwan prior to Jan. 20th, 2025.
>>”I think you are missing the point, it’s not what you and I think is right it’s the way China views Taiwan, they believe Taiwan was and always will be part of greater China.”
They may view it that way, but they view a lot of things through a selective lens that filters out the fuller picture. Chinese control of Taiwan only stretches back about 350 years. But leaving that aside, the CCP’s view of themselves as the rightful inheritors of Chinese civilization is certainly a matter of contested opinion. The Taiwanese would likely have a differing opinion.
>>”There is no way China will allow Taiwan to become an independent country aligned and armed by the USA...”
That’s a bit of a mischaracterization, as Taiwan already IS, ipso facto, independent and has been for the last 73 years, whether the CCP likes it or not. They’ve been independent for as long as the CCP has existed. This charade of pretending they aren’t, just demonstrates how the CCP’s view of reality is distorted by their ideology. So, we’re not talking about Taiwan “becoming” independent, although the CCP would like to frame it that way. We’re talking about Taiwan maintaining their independence. The CCP’s revisionist justifications hide their true motives, which are political. Taiwan’s continued independence is a challenge to the CCP’s legitimacy, not to Chinese civilization.
The naval buildup is ongoing. And as others have pointed out, hostilities may not take the form of an all-out assault but rather a naval blockade.
https://www.newsweek.com/china-nuclear-submarine-taiwan-strait-penghu-pescadores-islands-1914021
One good hit by Taiwan on the Three Gorges Dam, and the whole thing isn’t worth it.
So that must be part of any Chinese decision calculus.
D-Day is not necessary if one can do a blockade.
Nevertheless, the distance from the embarcation ports to Normandy is within a few km of the distance from Mainland to Taiwan.
If I was China, i would just wait.
The West is in a death spiral, Trump can at best slow it and he leaves after 2028.
Did you miss the part of my post that said Taiwan was independent until China gained what they believe is comparable military power, when they believe that Taiwan will not be independent.
When you say China views things through a selective lens, that statement disregards that the USA does that as well.
They hire it as part of China. And as long as it’s not it’s an arrow pointed at them. And with Taiwan they’re have a clear path to the Pacific.
“I fail to understand why China has such a “Hard on” for Taiwan. Perhaps someone can explain it
to all of us?”
Because Taiwan represents the one and only legitimate government of China.
I live in very rural Hawaii. I’m darned sure that as long as the USA still had Pearl harbor and the airbases they could care less what the rest of Hawaii did.
There is only 200,000 people on my island which is the size of Connecticut.
My last home in WA state, King county had more than 10 times that population. there I lived in a part of the county 33 miles East of Seattle.
there we had over 950 people per sq mile, here we have less than 50.
The USA would not miss Hawaii other than its military value.
Full disclosure;
I’m proud to be an American citizen and disabled Veteran,
but on the grand scheme of things we are just a fly speck.
Probably the best and most accurate comment response I’ve read to-date!
Maybe you’re right, 100% of Hawaii is in America, there is no possible scenario where everything except the military bases would be allowed to leave the USA and form an independent country who takes economic and military support from another country, same goes for Alaska or any of the other 48 contiguous states.
Overall Taiwan is a miniscule part of greater China, the Chinese view 100% of Taiwan as part of greater China, when they have equal military power as the USA, they will take back Taiwan, probably with little to no resistance from the USA, the people of Taiwan would probably fight back.
Normandy was about 40 miles. Taiwan is 100+ miles.
Ukraine ping
It won’t happen for years yet, because China’s not ready. If Russia hadn’t gotten bogged down in Ukraine, Xi might already have moved. Ukraine’s equipment inventory is sparse compared to Taiwan’s. It is being resupplied with a trickle of weaponry, mostly outdated equipment retrieved before it was to be scrapped. The invasion and annexation of Ukraine should have been completed within weeks if not months. The Russians were crossing a land border into a country that was, in the areas attacked, flat as a pancake. And yet Russia remains stalemated 2+ years into the war.
Taiwan not only has more up to date weapons in quantity, it is also a traditional US ally. Up until 1979, when Carter abrogated the treaty, it was a treaty ally with an American air base on the island, a fact reflected on the big screen twice in both Top Gun and the reboot, through the ROC patch on Maverick’s flight jacket. Any invasion involving a water crossing - especially a 100 mile crossing - is a risky one. Add to that the fact that the US has four treaty and numerous non-treaty allies in the vicinity chockful of supplies and with reasons of their own to fear the end of American protection if they balk when called upon over Taiwan’s defense, and the Chinese gamble becomes way more risky than Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Like all rulers, Xi is prestige-loving. Like Deng (of “Hide your strength, bide your time” fame), who stood pat on Taiwan, however, he has likely calculated, from Ukraine’s fierce resistance against Russia’s attempts to make further inroads, that any attempt against Taiwan could run into the same obstacles but worse, because of Taiwan’s advantages over Ukraine in equipment quality and quantity and geography (the 100 mile water barrier). And the wild card of direct US intervention would elevate the risk to a completely different level, since both in- and out-of-area allies would be compelled to assist the US, out of fear of the withdrawal of Pax Americana, win or lose.
A background factor is the obvious inferiority of Russian equipment, on which China’s inventory is based. In fact, much of China’s gear consists of inferior clones of Russia’s equipment. That’s a slender reed upon to base going toe-to-toe with the biggest economy and military power in the world, which is joined at the hip to allies that not only rely on its massive market and use many American products, but also rely on the US for military protection.
There is a reason why the biggest semiconductor manufacture setup its facility new facility in AZ.
If TSMC looses Apple, they loose everything.
Nothing being certain in war, that was an excellent analysis.
I thought the US was the sole hegemon, what happened?
“the people of Taiwan would probably fight back.”
I’m sure they would fight to the death.
After seeing how Hong Kong got Fuck$d over,
I’d fight tooth and nail for my freedom.
>>”Did you miss the part of my post that said Taiwan was independent until China gained what they believe is comparable military power, when they believe that Taiwan will not be independent.”
Yes, I missed it, because it was never there.
>>”When you say China views things through a selective lens, that statement disregards that the USA does that as well.”
We can go off into any tangents you’d like. But that was not the topic of discussion. You might as well say my statement disregards the fact that the Chiefs won the Super Bowl. The discussion was about the differences between the CCP’s relationship with Taiwan, vs the United State’s relationships with its states.
Taiwan was part of Japan until 1952. Had nothing to do with China’s civil war.
That’s not what I ask you.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.