Strategic Calculations Behind Russia’s Kazan Nuclear Submarine’s Upcoming Visit to Cuba

The Aviationist ^ | 6/8/2024 | Parth Satam

[marcusmaximus]

Heralding days of the tense Cold War, particularly the Cuban Missile Crisis, a Russian nuclear-powered submarine of the Yasen-M class, the Kazan, will visit Havana, Cuba has announced.

-snip-

According to RUSI (Royal United Services Institute), the Kazan was constructed in eight years, less than half the time taken to construct the lead ship of the class, the Severodvinsk.

The Kazan’s and Severodvinsk’s “most notable feature” is the capability to launch a range of anti-ship and land attack missiles

[Gunslingr3]

It’s hilarious to me that the Russian ‘flotilla’ consists of one destroyer, an oiler, a tug, and a sub.

[marcusmaximus]

A sub named after Kazan, the pride of Tatarstan.

[tinamina]

https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/news-selections/world-news/russian-naval-group-off-melbourne-florida-coastline

[DesertRhino]

Russia never has been much of a maritime power. Spanning the Eurasian landmass the sea has never been super critical to them for trade. And the lack of worldwide military adventures also works against that need. Rockets, interceptors, artillery and SAMs are their forte.
America cannot project power without the ability to operate at sea. Our economy also depends on that. But our SAM and artillery capability is a joke.

Horses for courses.

[hardspunned]

Imagine having the whole of the greatest offensive military behemoth in history cuddling up closer to the U.S. than even Cuba. THAT is what NATO in Ukraine is to Russia. This is just the start. Expect Mexican BRICS membership sooner rather than later. I’d suggest you go pantieless when the Russians begin to upgrade Cuban military runways to nuclear age standards. You can keep your underwear waddage to a minimum that way.

[PIF]

Heralding days of the tense Cold War, particularly the Cuban Missile Crisis, a Russian nuclear-powered submarine of the Yasen-M class, the Kazan, will visit Havana, Cuba has announced. This comes amid a particular inflection point in the war in Ukraine, where the imminent arrival of large capital weapons like the F-16s and the approval by US and Europe for Kyiv to strike targets inside mainland Russia.

Even more recently, French President Emmanuel Macron, announced the approval to send Mirage 2000-5 fighters to Ukraine, after months of holding off on Ukraine’s request for more aircraft. While the submarine itself would not be armed with nuclear weapons, the strategic message Moscow appears to be sending is loaded.

Primarily, it flows from Vladimir Putin’s persistent wielding of the nuclear threat, where he promises the use of atomic weapons if the Russian Federation faces an “existential” threat.

Kazan and three other Russian naval vessels - missile frigate Admiral Gorshkov, fleet replenishment tanker Pashin and a salvage tug Nikolai Chiker - will dock in the Cuban capital from June 12 to 17, Cuba’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in two statements on Jun. 6, 2024. “None of the vessels is carrying nuclear weapons, so their stopover in our country does not represent a threat to the region,” it added.


The Yasen-class are a series of nuclear-powered cruise missile submarines designed by the Malakhit Engineering Bureau and built at the Sevmash Shipyard (JSC PO/Joint Stock Company Sevmash), part of the USC (United Shipbuilding Corporation). It is the country’s only nuclear submarine producer.

Shift in Russian Naval Thinking
The sub is based on the Akula-class, which were designed to replace the Russian navy’s Soviet-era nuclear attack submarines. While the Akula is optimized for a ‘hunter-killer’ role, the Yasen-class concept is more of a ‘nuclear guided missile submarine (or SSGN).

According to RUSI (Royal United Services Institute), the Kazan was constructed in eight years, less than half the time taken to construct the lead ship of the class, the Severodvinsk.

The Kazan’s and Severodvinsk’s “most notable feature” is the capability to launch a range of anti-ship and land attack missiles, including, in the future, the hypersonic 3M22 Zircon (successful tests were carried out, according to Russian State-run media outlets, in 2021).

“The “shift” from SSNs like the Akula, primarily optimized for a hunter-killer role, towards a concept closer to SSGNs, “is likely indicative of a shift in the way that Russian submarines will contribute to future campaigns.”

Long-range strike missions appear to be superseding SLOC (Sea Lines of Communication) as a primary task. This forces “a change” in NATO’s ASW (Anti-Submarine Warfare) strategy in the High North, which primarily relied on the “barrier defence at the GIUK (Greenland–Iceland–UK) gap.” With the Yasens, Russian submarines “have little need to traverse this barrier in order to achieve their operational ends.”

Russia has already demonstrated this thinking its long-range missile fires into Ukraine that it started the war with in February 2022 and continues to this day. Despite the air denial imposed by Kyiv with its air force and Western AD (Air Defense) systems, Russia sends long-range Kh-101 ALCMs (Air Launched Cruise Missiles), P-800 Oniks, Kalibr sea-fired cruise missile, Iskander and Iskander-M tactical ballistic missile and Kinzhal aeroballistic hypersonic missile into Ukrainian cities and battlefield targets.

Weapons Loadout
Interestingly, the Kazan is equipped with the UKSK (3P-14B) vertical launch system consisting of 8SM-346 modules, having a length of 10-meters and a diameter of two-meters. They can hold either five 3M54-1 Kalibr missiles or four P-800 Oniks anti-ship missiles each.

The system will also be able to launch the 4500-km Kalibr-M missile which as of 2021 was under development, and a submarine launched variant of the Kh-101. This missile is presently fired by the Tupolev Tu-95 and Tu-160 strategic bombers, with variants capable of releasing decoys and dual-warheads already in use in Ukraine. These missiles provide the Yasen and Yasen-M with significant long-range land attack and anti-ship capabilities.

The Zircon meanwhile has a reported speed of Mach 6-8. “Depending on its flight trajectory, (it can potentially overwhelm) shipboard air defenses by denying them the time they need to develop a firing solution,” RUSI added.

Intent and Message
For one, the intent seems to be conveying a strategic message to the U.S. that if it can surround Russia with military bases and strategic alliances, Moscow too has the right to enhance strategic relations with countries around North America. However, this is being done at a very benign, calibrated level, where the Russian submarine is visiting Cuba without nuclear weapons, with no naval drills in seas shared by Havana and Washington.

For one, the activities are more cultural in nature. The Cuban statement sheds light on this: “Visits of naval groups from other countries are a historical practice that the Revolutionary Government has followed with nations with which we maintain friendly and cooperative relations.

Russian sailors will fulfill a program of activities that will include a courtesy call on the Cuban Revolutionary Navy Commander and the Governor of Havana. Besides, they will go on a tour around places of historical and cultural interest.”

Secondly, the announcement was made by the Cuban side and not Russia. It means Moscow does not intend to attack the US mainland and is not actively publicizing its move.

Three, there were tell-tale signs in previous Russian and Cuban military engagements. On Jun. 27, 2023, the RuMoD (Russian Ministry of Defense). Cuban defense minister General Alvaro Lopez met his counterpart at the time, Sergei Shoigu.

A RuMoD release on its Telegram channel quoted Shoigu naming the agenda. These were a “wide range of issues in the military and military-technical field,” thanking Havana’s support for Russia’s war in Ukraine, criticizing the West’s “so-called rules based-order,” and opposing the “illegal trade and economic embargo against Cuba.”

On May 9, Putin also met the Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel Bermudez on the sidelines of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council Union. The readout by the Kremlin quoted Putin sharing solidarity between two against “illegal sanctions and restrictions … by the United States.”

Lastly and most stunningly, the move appears to be aiding China’s own position in its tensions with the US. On Jun. 6, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met the Special Envoy of the Cuban President and its Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez Parrilla in Beijing. Wang said “China resolutely opposes the US’s blockade against Cuba,” and “firmly supports (it in) opposing foreign interference.”

The timing of the Chinese-Cuban engagement, coming on the same date as Cuba announced the Russian submarine’s visit, amid the overall geopolitical situation, makes a very compelling political statement.

Intelligence gathering mission
A Russian nuclear submarine approaching the region will probably attract the attention of several ISR (Intelligence Surveillance Reconnaissance) assets. Among the others, we can expect U.S. Navy P-8A Poseidon being dispatched to shadow the Kazan submarine.

As explained in a previous post [ https://theaviationist.com/2019/04/17/tracking-u-s-navy-p-8-poseidon-aircraft-missions-across-the-mediterranean-region/ ]:
“The [P-8 Poseidons] are much more than MPA (Maritime Patrol Aircraft): they are multi-mission platforms that can gather valuable intelligence using a wide array of sensors. Among these, an Advanced Airborne Sensor (a dual-sided AESA radar that can offer 360-degree scanning on targets on land or coastal areas, and which has potential applications as a jamming or even cyberwarfare platform according to Northrop Grumman); an APY-10 multi-mode synthetic aperture radar; an MX-20 electro-optical/infrared turret for shorter-range search; and an ALQ-240 Electronic Support Measure (ESM) suite, able to geo-locate and track enemy radar emitters.

"Moreover, all sensors contribute to a single fused tactical situation display, which is then shared over both military standard and internet protocol data links, allowing for seamless delivery of information amongst U.S. and coalition forces.”

U.S. Navy P-8As can regularly be tracked online; there are chances we will be able to track the “hunt for Kazan” on flight tracking websites and apps.

[marcusmaximus]

Kazan stronk as bull!

[silverleaf]

It’s discouraging that so many people are being spun up by the media hype on this as some unusual alarming Russian action.

Cuba is a Russian outpost in the Caribbean, hosts a huge Russian intel gathering site, and since the 60’s has seen dozens or hundreds of port calls by Russian ships and subs, as well as strategic aircraft.

Does not our military operate similarly close to Russian territory?

[Leaning Right]

> Imagine having the whole of the greatest offensive military behemoth in history cuddling up closer to the U.S. than even Cuba. THAT is what NATO in Ukraine is to Russia. <

Correct. And it doesn’t really matter what NATO’s intentions are. What matters is what Russia *thinks* NATO’s intentions are.

However, I view Putin’s response (the invasion) as an overreaction. In other words, a pox on both their houses.

[ansel12]

“””””It’s hilarious to me that the Russian ‘flotilla’ consists of one destroyer, an oiler, a tug, and a sub.”””””

Something is better than nothing.

It does give the state controlled Russian media something to work with and can also be positively written about in the state controlled medias of Russia’s friends and allies such as North Korea and Iran.

[silverleaf]

Over 60 years of Russian port calls into Cuba

https://www.usni.org/magazines/naval-history-magazine/2012/september/soviet-navys-caribbean-outpost

[marcusmaximus]

August 12, 2000

The nuclear-powered submarine Kursk sinks in the Barents Sea due to an explosion in its torpedo room, killing all the 118 submariners on board.

August 30, 2003

Nine crew members die when the K-159 nuclear submarine sinks in the Barents Sea during a storm. The K-159 was being towed to a harbor to have its nuclear reactors stripped when a storm broke.

https://www.rferl.org/amp/major-russian-submarine-accidents-since-2000/30033592.html

[armourenthusiast]

What more do they need?

[aMorePerfectUnion]

It’s hilarious to me that the Russian ‘flotilla’ consists of one destroyer, an oiler, a tug, and a sub.

That you know of...

[aMorePerfectUnion]

"In 1863, Alexander II sent two Russian fleets under the command of Admirals Lessovski and Popov to New York and San Francisco in order to put pressure on London and fight the British navy if necessary. Russian ships patrolled the American shores for 10 months. Thus, Russia was the first European power, who officially supported the Union and President Lincoln. Soon the war was over.

[aMorePerfectUnion]

ZEEPER FOLLIES PINGLIST!

(((PING!)))

[DesertRhino]

However, I view Putin’s response (the invasion) as an overreaction

We said we would absolutely not negotiate on it, Ukraine is on a NATO fast track. NATO was already talking to Ukraine about evicting Russia and handing Sevastopol over to NATO navies. The Ukrainian government is controlled by Nazi militias. And there was ethnic cleansing in the east.

Letting it go any longer would mean it was non reversible. That Russia would have to live with a NATO force, Nazis and ethnic cleansing next door forever.

You call an overreaction, he was left with two choices, the bad choice of invading, or the really bad choice of letting it become a permanent reality.

And that doesn’t even get into the next problem. Our neocons and globalists were already talking about how to do a Russian color revolution and install navalny or another Ivy globalist.

He really had no choice other than accept our dictated terms or fight.

[Robert DeLong]

Wait a minute now. Are you saying it's okay for us to show concern for our national security, however, it's criminal for Russia to show concern for their national security?

I prefer to accept that we both have a right to be concerned about national security, and that dialog can lower those concerns to resolve that concern instead of provoking it to the point that results with a kinetic confrontation.

The latter was done when it came to Russia's concern about an ever expanding NATO expansion, while denying Russia consideration to join in the NATO coalition. Instead they were trying to isolate Russia.

We did that to Germany after WWI, which led to WWII a decade & a half later.

If we look at the actions taken after WWII we see that the Axis nations, German, Japan & Italy have become nations we do business with, rather than go to war with. With the fall of the USSR it was the perfect opportunity to take that tact.

We did that with China, but it has been an abject failure, because the idiots running the government now, are nowhere as competent as those leading this nation after WWII, beginning in 60s onward.

[ansel12]

“””””Imagine having the whole of the greatest offensive military behemoth in history””””””

Offensive? NATO is laying waste to the world and conquering peoples and nations?
You think the nations of Europe lie in fear at night of the NATO countries, or do you think they fear Russia?

Russia has launched the biggest European war since WWII and they intend to keep whatever they have conquered, whatever they are conquering, and whatever they will conquer in the future, NATO is demonstrating its defensive nature by only helping the victim nation while staying out of direct conflict with the world threat that is Russia.