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To: Rockingham
Russia’s economy and finances are under serious stress

what steaming pile of propaganda. Russia's economy is growing faster than ours or most Western ones:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-23/russia-raises-2024-growth-forecast-as-economy-weathers-sanctions

Russia Lifts 2024 Growth Forecast as Economy Rides Sanctions

Economy Ministry says GDP will grow 2.8% in 2024, up from 2.3%

https://www.ft.com/content/21a5be9c-afaa-495f-b7af-cf937093144d

Russia’s economy will expand much more rapidly this year than previously expected, according to the IMF, as President Vladimir Putin’s military spending feeds through into wider growth. 

Gross domestic product is forecast to rise 2.6 per cent this year, more than double the pace the IMF predicted as recently as October, and slightly slower than the 3 per cent expansion estimated for 2023.

The Russian upgrade, by 1.5 percentage points, is the largest for any economy featured in an update to the fund’s World Economic Outlook, released on Tuesday.

33 posted on 05/13/2024 9:17:39 AM PDT by Kazan
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To: Kazan

There are four important negative details that merit consideration.

First, Russia’s nominal economic growth includes her military and war spending. These do not contribute to civilian well-being in a meaningful way even though they boost Russia’s GDP accounting.

Second, sanctions are beginning to bite and the effects will compound over time, especially on Russia’s civilian economy. Yes, China is helping subvert Western sanctions, but that help comes at a monetary and strategic price.

Third, Russian state finances are deteriorating as cash reserves are spent down to support the war effort. This injection of cash is helping spur Russia’s domestic inflation.

Four, to remedy a domestic labor shortage caused by military manpower demands, Russia is permitting massive Muslim immigration. This is compounding Russia’s internal security problems and aggravating Russia’s demographic decline.

If this seems counterintuitive, ask yourself whether war and spending on a war on the net benefits a country’s civilian economy. It really doesn’t — which is why peace is almost always preferable to war.


40 posted on 05/13/2024 10:09:05 AM PDT by Rockingham (`)
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