They are NOT in drivers sea[t] here IF the West decides to get off their ass and really REALLY out produce them in artillery shells, pieces, tubes, and especially drones of every kind.
Give Ukraine everything but nukes and Russia wins handily. Give them nukes and there is a mutually destructive tie where nobody wins.
Ukraine has a manpower shortage. Ukraine needs more bodies and Russia is not even mobilized.
The West cannot just get off its ass and double or quadruple production. Production is by private companies. They cannot just multiply their production facilities without a firm and long term purchase commitment. The conflict will be over before they could increase their facilities and double their manpower with skilled people.
I suspect you are correct about manpower and mobilization discrepancies. The war there may indeed be over effectively, before the West manages parity or superiority in materiel production numbers.
Would any of it have made a difference sooner? Unknown.
I believe there are still some surprises to cone here.