I suspect you are correct about manpower and mobilization discrepancies. The war there may indeed be over effectively, before the West manages parity or superiority in materiel production numbers.
Would any of it have made a difference sooner? Unknown.
I believe there are still some surprises to cone here.
The propaganda from both sides is unreliable, wth a lot of it being less reliable than Baghdad Bob. It is known that Russia has a massive advantage in the air. It is also known that Russia has a massive advantage in artillery and shells. For now, Russia enjoys a massive advantage in air defense. As far as navies go, Russia has one. Damage inflicted by both sides occurs almost exclusively within Ukraine or what used to be Ukraine.
I know of no reliable and assuredly accurate casualty figures. I do know that when one side has the advantages Russia has, the other side is going to take a lot of casualties. The 31,000 KIA figure cited by Zelensky is beyond laughable. The purported kill ratio greatly favoring Ukraine is also ridiculous. When the conflict ends, and the true figures come out, Zelensky will be in exile or he will be executed by the Ukrainian people.
The best estimate of KIA will come after the fighting ends and the men do not come home.