We spent 20 - 30 years in the Middle East, fighting Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, etc. Not terribly serious stuff. Lots of terrorists with the occasional armored assault. But we have now “pivoted” away from that.
The DOD now speaks in terms of Great Power conflict. That's either Russia or China. We think we might have to fight them.
I would state with great confidence that the US cannot win any attritional war. We would refuse to lose the men, and we have not the capability to replace the equipment. If it's a war of attrition, we would just lose.
A quick war? A blitzkrieg? A big knockout blow from Gen Schwarzkopf? No. You are not going to take out either Russia or China through some glorious 10-week assault to their capitol.
Our only real hope is a massive nuclear war. As far as I can see, that's really the only thing the Pentagon really has on the table. Either that or chest puffing and posturing for lots of Defense dollars with no intention of fighting a real war.
But if there is a war, and if we think we're going to win, then we would go nuclear. I think that's dumb. But I do not think the US is capable of winning a war in any other fashion.
Well, they just announced another two year delay on icbm modernization, so I think even possible nuclear war victory is off the table.
https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2024/03/sentinel-flight-test-delayed-more-two-years/395313/
Russia and China are huge countries with huge ground armies. Neither of those two have 800 bases spread around the world. Neither of those two spend trillions projecting military might around the globe. This year Russia will spend $70 billion on military and they are in great shape to defeat anything NATO (spending $1.3Trillion) can throw at them. In the era that gunboat diplomacy became obsolete, it will take the relative easy sinking of a U.S. carrier or two before the idiots in the Pentagon notice.