The Ukraine War in 2024 - The Military and Economic Balance of the Long War

It's long been understood that the war in Ukraine will likely be a long and hard one, determined as much by production, supply, economics and political will as well as the skill and sacrifice of those fighting it.

But despite that realisation, the transition of the war into its third year of full-scale fighting still represents a bitter milestone, and while the front has seen some movements recently and the year is likely to see a number of offensive actions - at a strategic level, the lines are moving at a glacial pace, and often only when the supply situation allows.

By popular vote - today we're going to look at where the war in Ukraine stands in 2024. We'll explore ammunition production and supply, the economic health of the countries involved, some of the trends in terms of the way the fighting is evolving and put together what predictions we can for the coming months.

Newsweek just reported Ukraine is getting a “Defense Boost” from Israel.

Israel is doubling down its military support for Ukraine.

Israel will provide Ukraine with an early warning system against missiles as
part of Israel’s aid package for Kyiv, to assist in defending democracy from Russian aggression.

Any aid package from Israel to Ukraine is to be considered US aid since
US financial and military aid to Israel gets broad support in the US Congress

According to an internal US govt list of the weapons described to The WSJ,
among US arms the Biden admin U.S. handed over to Israel after Oct 7 include:
<><>more than 5,000 Mk82 unguided or “dumb” bombs,
<><>more than 5,400 Mk84 2,000 pound warhead bombs,
<><>around 1,000 GBU-39 small diameter bombs,
<><>approximately 3,000 JDAMs, which turn unguided bombs into guided “smart” bombs,
<><>BLU-109 bunker busters w/ 2,000 pound warheads designed to penetrate concrete shelters.

Military analysts say the transfer of large bombs to Israel illustrates the choices facing the Israeli military as it attempts to wipe out Hamas in Gaza, a tiny, densely populated ribbon of land that is home to more than two million Palestinians.

Israel urged more than a million civilians to leave the northern part of the Gaza Strip to give its military a freer hand there, but tens if not hundreds of thousands of civilians have remained in the area.
The U.S. has transferred about 1,000 GBU-39 small diameter bombs to Israel to help dislodge Hamas from Gaza after Oct 7.

pic a U.S. Air Force senior airman guides a bomb rack unit equipped with GBU-39s, as seen in 2020. PHOTO: 379TH AIR EXPEDITIONARY WING PUBLIC AFFAIRS

In Gaza, Hamas’s military wing also uses a vast network of underground tunnels, which Israel could attempt to strike with the bunker busters, analysts say. The tunnels however lie beneath Gaza’s urban landscape of apartment blocks, schools, hospitals, and other civilian buildings.

U.S. officials say Israel used an American-provided bomb with a large payload in one of the deadliest strikes of the entire war, an attack that leveled an apartment block in Gaza’s Jabalia refugee camp, killing more than 100 people.

Israel said the strike killed a Hamas leader.

“There is potentially a legitimate use for these things, to bust underground bunkers,” said Finucane, the former attorney-advisor at the State Department. “The problem is there’s a massive refugee camp with hundreds of thousands of civilians on top of those tunnels when you drop the bomb. You need to factor in the harm to civilians.”

The U.S. has also sent Israel roughly 57,000 155mm artillery shells—a key munition the U.S. has also provided Ukraine since the 2022 Russian invasion—along with thousands of other artillery shells and various small arms.

Even before the US armed the war in Gaza, the nation’s 155mm artillery rounds were in such short supply that the U.S. was forced to reach deep into its global stockpiles and turned to allies South Korea and Japan, among other countries, to provide more arms to Ukraine.

Vivian Salama in Dubai contributed to this article.

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