Posted on 02/15/2024 1:59:18 PM PST by Eccl 10:2
Please ping me if you want to be added to the list, but…
NOTE: I am not any sort of financial or investment professional, and I take no responsibility for any actions taken by you.
One of my Qs keeps dropping. It starts with an I.
“For you TA buffs, note:”
Trillions sitting money market accounts and short term CDs.
If interest rates decline, don’t fight the fed.
Don’t put all your apples in one basket.
As one who is big into technical analysis, but who has been proven to be wrong many, many times by my longer term associates.....I would say you’re probably better off hanging in for a longer period of time. Did not the nasdaq and the S&P regain 80 to 90% of the hit they took the other day? Besides what other sectors are doing well?
I got my pal into Valero at 124 and thought he should sell it at 128 and did. Now it’s 143.
I concluded similar today. Cashed out of energy stocks. Will buy back, hopefully after a 10% pullback.
NVDA is nuts!
Fed will raise rates because govt wont stop spending. More treasury debt means higher interest rates. Or maybe the Fed cares more about public approval than the bankers’ money.
Price Close Today - $434
Original Run - Began At $40 - In January 2009
I can’t say I agree with that. They might disappoint by not lowering them.
To my way of thinking, with all its caveats and shortcomings, raising rates means the Treasury has to pay more in interest on US bond debt. The amount the Tsy has to pay in interest is already roughly as much as the defense budget. It may be a tad more. If the Tsy has to pay more than it already is in interest on the debt, I suspect the market will assume the Tsy is printing more money = inflationary. So to my way of thinking, raising rates at this juncture would actually be counterproductive, if fighting inflation is the core concept. Not to mention the braking effect on recovering economic activity and the usual hesitancy raising rates in an election year.
But I feel bullish about the market because the wall of worry is so formidable at this point. I think the market, particularly the tech sector of the market, has vigorously shrugged off the higher rates we see as of today relative to a few years ago.
I do not expect rates to decline.
Until taxes are increased.
Last I heard, the National debt was a bit over $34 Trillion...
at 3% interest the cost of service to the debt is around $85 Billion per month (just paying the interest...not paying off the debt). The National debt is now a question of “Will it GROW by 6% or shall we cut it all the way down to a GROWTH of 3%.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nyvxt1svxso
A lot of foot peddle for a Friday run
watch for stop loss raids and head fakes.
If your a member of the lunch bunch .. don't get greedy..
I'm calling 200pts of track
batter batter SWING ... trade that is...
18000
any way it goes there is going to be a lot of track for the Q train.
not financial advise .... for entertainment only
remember it's hunting season ... black swans could fly any time
That’s what makes investing and TA interesting. Any given chart or analytical tool or fundamental data can always be interpreted as good or bad, up or down.
Lots of cash out there looking for a bargain, and OTOH lots of shareholders looking to sell when they think the market is overbought.
The best one can do is play the odds, like a Texas Hold Em player. Sometimes pocket aces lose, sometime 7-2 OSs wins. Sometimes you hit that flush on the river, sometimes your opponent hits that inside straight.
If there was a sure bet in the market, everyone would buy it.
One thing that has really changed the dynamics of the market over the past few years, is the retail traders.
We call them the “buy the dippers” there are hundreds ..maybe thousands of young u-tubers using “white label” market data to create a subscription site.
They show charts and numbers and lines and give “recommendations” and alerts to all their followers.
Of course it's a front running scam, but it becomes a self fulfilling sort of thing. It runs a-muck in the small caps ... along with illegal naked shorts.
A lot of that has moved into the real market.(ndx)
Watch from about 11:30 to 1:30 if you want to see the lunch bunch. 12:00 - 1:00
Do you ever watch the over nights?
Have you ever seen a good magic minute 4-4:01 at close
keep your eye on the ball ... and ... SWING for the fence
Buy low, sell high.
“If there was a sure bet in the market, everyone would buy it.”
Anyone that refers to “bet” and “market” in the same sentence is not I reality.
Poker is a zero game before the house rake.
The market is composed of companies. I have about 15 long term stock holdings plus a big tech weighted fund.
All are winners. I could never go 16 for 16 at the table.
“One thing that has really changed the dynamics of the market over the past few years, is the retail traders.
We call them the “buy the dippers” there are hundreds ..maybe thousands of young u-tubers using “white label” market data to create a subscription site.”
Minor effect. Been there since the internet.
Good for you.
Short term, I think the odds call for some more downside, maybe to the 425 area.
Taking it day by day. Markets closed on Monday.
Happy trading!
Actually ended down $3.94, or 0.91%
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