Posted on 02/02/2024 7:11:36 AM PST by lasereye
With Wall Street expecting continued declines in the pace of monthly growth, and consensus looking for a decline from last month's 219K print to 185K, the BLS reported that in January the US created a ridiculous 353K jobs...
... double the 185K expected, and higher than than the highest forecast estimate, which as a reminder was 300K. In fact, as shown below, this was a 4-sigma beat to expectations...and putting the beat in the context of the past year, it was an absolute blowout:
What is notable is that once again there was a huge dispersion between the Establishment and Household Surveys, and while the former indicated an increase of 353K, the latter reported a drop in Employment of 31K! The blue line is the Household Survey, Green is the Establishment Survey.
Clearly none of that mattered to the BLS which had just one mission: to make the economy look double super good-good, and it wasn't just payrolls which blew away expectations, the unemployment rate also slipped, staying at 3.7%, vs expectations of an increase to 3.8%.
Recent announced job cuts:
- Twitch: 35% of workforce
- Hasbro: 20% of workforce
- Spotify: 17% of workforce
- Levi's: 15% of workforce
- Zerox: 15% of workforce
- Qualtrics: 14% of workforce
- Wayfair: 13% of workforce
- Duolingo: 10% of workforce
- Washington Post: 10% of workforce
- eBay: 9% of workforce
- Business Insider: 8% of workforce
- Paypal: 7% of workforce
- Charles Schwab: 6% of workforce
- UPS: 2% of workforce
- Blackrock: 3% of workforce
- Citigroup: 20,000 employees
- Pixar: 1,300 employees
Good point like Biden’s exaggerated speeches and statements.
This shift to Biden will continue along with fake economic numbers, by Labor Day, the polls will show a neck and neck race with momentum by Biden, this will continue right up to the election.
The polls and economic statistics are designed to manipulate public opinion and shift a small number of people in key states that decide the outcome.
I posted An Early Look at Biden versus Trump back in December. Here's what I said about the analysis:
The roadmap the media and Biden campaign have laid out to get Biden the win rests mainly on two themes (plus vote fraud):
1. Lie a lot about the economy and say it's doing pretty well. Many will laugh at how absurd that is. People forget how tenacious the Dems/media can be in promoting a big lie even though their ability to do that has been demonstrated over and over.
2. Portray Trump a real threat to democracy.If they can pull off those two things then Biden can win very ugly. History shows they have good chance to pull it off. Trump's team needs to have a very well defined strategy to counter the Biden themes. Holding a bunch of rallies is not it.
In 2020 Biden was able to score some points on Covid, and he kept repeating the "white supremacists are fine people" lie. They allowed Biden to portray himself as a moderate. The Trump team did not have an effective counter to Biden's lies. Trump's 2020 team and Trump himself were bad at strategery. It has never been clear to me that they even had a strategy. Unless holding lots of rallies constitutes a strategy (it doesn't).
Recent developments with the polls are proving my point. They are also gaslighting on the border. As I noted, Trump needs a very focused strategy to deal with these deceptions. Specifically a message strategy. For example, run commercials showing layoff announcements and cite the alternative jobs numbers like the Household Survey etc.
I'm not confident Trump will have any strategy. He'll just hold lots of rallies. He thinks that's a strategy. When I posted that thread someone kept insisting that there is no possible strategy except holding rallies. He has a low IQ.
The constant lying is extreme but the Democrats know at least 50% of the people will buy it regardless of how outrageous it is, remember only 1-2% of the vote is all that’s needed to potentially swing the outcome of the election
The only scenario I can see upending everything is a major war the public doesn’t buy into
In a few months, this number will be quietly revised downward.
One of the biggest mistakes Trump made was not having an administration of committed and capable leaders, who believed in his policies, ready to appoint to office the day after the election so he could take the oath of office in January and immediately get down to work transforming the government. Both Obama and Biden had an administration ready to go on the first day in office and they never lost momentum.
My biggest concern about Trump is him being a one man show. In four years he did not demonstrate competence in identifying, attracting, and putting in place the excellent management and leadership talent needed to “drain the swamp.” If he isn’t already lining up an outstanding cabinet, and getting the list of lower level appointed positions together, he is positioning himself for a miserable four years and potentially impeachment and removal from office if the Dems win control of the House and Senate. Remember he flubbed the key cabinet and staff positions in his first term, sometimes multiple times. The failure to have the lower level positions ready to go resulted in former Obama administration officials remaining in office for months, undermining the Trump agenda.
For those who pile on that McConnell forced the bad appointments, explain why will things be different the second time around with either Schumer or McConnell in charge of the Senate?
Agree on Zero Hedge....
My grandfathers and father used to read the Wall Street Journal.
I read Zero Hedge.
T-bill interest is paying my mortgage each month.
The coming rug pull will be epic...
Like virtually every other government “labor report”, this one will be revised significantly downward WITHOUT any fanfare.
Here’s my explanation as to why the numbers look “good” but the general population considers the economy bad: These jobs are being filled by Boomer-retirees and homemakers who have been forced to reenter the workforce to pay the bills. Also, many jobs are being filled as second or even third jobs as Americans struggle to pay the rent. Finally, the COVID money has now run its course and the deadbeats that laid around on their couches for three years now have to pay their own freight and are taking jobs (and they are not happy).
Lets not forget consumer debt spending is near all time highs. What happens when these debts come due? The “booming economy” is being fueled by buy now pay later scams and the medias lies about the light at the end of the funnel. People have been hoodwinked. I dont even think rate cuts will prevent a crash.
and to provide cover for the big cheat. If the polls were reported accurately, it would be harder to explain how Biden was down 10% going into the election, but made a miraculous comeback to win the White House. Dual purpose fake polls.
exactly, think Biden was significantly ahead going into election days, at 10pm Trump was so far ahead he could not possibly lose, until the counting 4-5 states stopped almost at the same time, after 3-4 hours when the counting restarted, 95% of the votes that came in were for Biden and they kept this up until Biden was ahead and declared the winner.
Personally, I think Trump will lose this election, the polls will gradually turn against him, the economic statistics will turn against him, and the GOP has done nothing to counteract the cheating, the picture being painted to the public will be Trump is unelectable and Biden is the only choice, the only thing that can stop this is Biden getting us into a major war the public turns against.
Zero Hedge posts lots of articles from other websites. That article wasn’t written by Tyler Durden.
Adjustments to Dec and Nov were revised up by 126K . total, driven somewhat by govt hiring.
January spikes are the rule, not the exception.
The hidden stat may tell the real story:
US Average Weekly Hours:
34.1 vs 34.3 consensus and 34.3 prior. It does not seem like a big deal until you know that it’s lower than any point in the last 10-years other than the first month of COVID . So part time jobs.
But make no mistake about it, the Biden administration will use the economy and improving numbers to convince people Biden is doing a great job even though it looks like the jobs are post covid recovery and are part time and productivity is driven by AI.
Trump needs to woo independent women voters (he’s under water in all polls by almost 2 to 1 with these females -mainly because he can’t help himself on silly name calling not jobs #s).
Do you expect anyone in the Biden Administration Border Control to say there are any problems they can't handle at our southern border?
Every thing is rosy and the Emperor Slow-Joe has clothes on and all his mental faculties. They know what they need to say to keep the DOJ from naming them in some kind of criminal case.
It's almost like he wants to lose deep down. There doesn't seem to be anyone in his inner circle who can tell him to stop that. Rebutting the media/Democrat claim that the economy is great is also essential. He will lose if he can't do that. I doubt that he can do it though.
This number maybe revised downward. However, thing to consider is that Biden has let in millions of illegals, most of whom are young adult males. The BLS doesn’t inquire about the legal status of those surveyed.
Record US oil production frustrates OPEC cuts...
America now largest producer in world...
BOOM: ANOTHER JOBS BLOWOUT...
353K ADDED IN JAN...
Santelli Stunned: ‘HUGE JUMP’ In Pay...
Kudlow Praises Biden Economy: ‘I Was Wrong’...
All the headlines showing everything wonderful now!
You can’t lie about Inflation, particularly food Inflation. It is growing every mounth.
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