Fake January Payroll Report: Payrolls Explode By 353K

Feb 2, 2024 | self

[lasereye]

With Wall Street expecting continued declines in the pace of monthly growth, and consensus looking for a decline from last month's 219K print to 185K, the BLS reported that in January the US created a ridiculous 353K jobs...

... double the 185K expected, and higher than than the highest forecast estimate, which as a reminder was 300K. In fact, as shown below, this was a 4-sigma beat to expectations...and putting the beat in the context of the past year, it was an absolute blowout:

What is notable is that once again there was a huge dispersion between the Establishment and Household Surveys, and while the former indicated an increase of 353K, the latter reported a drop in Employment of 31K! The blue line is the Household Survey, Green is the Establishment Survey.

Clearly none of that mattered to the BLS which had just one mission: to make the economy look double super good-good, and it wasn't just payrolls which blew away expectations, the unemployment rate also slipped, staying at 3.7%, vs expectations of an increase to 3.8%.

Recent announced job cuts:

1. Twitch: 35% of workforce
2. Hasbro: 20% of workforce
3. Spotify: 17% of workforce
4. Levi's: 15% of workforce
5. Zerox: 15% of workforce
6. Qualtrics: 14% of workforce
7. Wayfair: 13% of workforce
8. Duolingo: 10% of workforce
9. Washington Post: 10% of workforce
10. eBay: 9% of workforce
11. Business Insider: 8% of workforce
12. Paypal: 7% of workforce
13. Charles Schwab: 6% of workforce
14. UPS: 2% of workforce
15. Blackrock: 3% of workforce
16. Citigroup: 20,000 employees
17. Pixar: 1,300 employees

[lasereye]

The above is excerpted from Zero Hedge. FR blocks linking to them for some strange reason.

[outofsalt]

gaslighting
[ˈɡasˌlīdiNG]
NOUN
The practice of psychologically manipulating someone into questioning their own sanity, memory, or powers of reasoning.

[ProtectOurFreedom]

Try this…

http://tinyurl.com/January-Jobs-Shocker

[srmanuel]

The same thing is happening with the Opinion Polls, Trump has been showing to be far ahead of Biden until the Democrats became 100% convinced no Republican was a serious challenger to him, once that happened the polls have started to narrow with a few indicating Biden is now ahead.

This shift to Biden will continue along with fake economic numbers, by Labor Day, the polls will show a neck and neck race with momentum by Biden, this will continue right up to the election.

The polls and economic statistics are designed to manipulate public opinion and shift a small number of people in key states that decide the outcome.

[wiseprince]

Statistics can be and probably are being manipulated. The jobs you posted were probably well paying. Who knows about the new jobs. You’d really have to dig through the details to know. Trump had record after record until COVID and the Rats never once gave him credit so...meh

[God luvs America]

What were the adjustments to December and November?

[thegagline]

The above is excerpted from Zero Hedge. FR blocks linking to them for some strange reason

Zero Hedge is a wonderful conservative/libertarian source. I too don’t know why it is blocked here.

With these numbers, the Fed would normally raise interest rates…if it wasn’t an election year.

[outofsalt]

[Sequoyah101]

Anything too good to be true usually is too good to be true. Recall when in the obama era they put out glowing jobs reports on page 1 and the retractions of the adjusted numbers on page nill? Funny thing about January.

Wish I still had access to JM Huber data for ink and kaolin clay. Those were good tells about the direction of the economy. For now UPS and Fedex will have to do. Neither bodes well. Maybe the drunken spending spree with stimulus is slowing down and back to normal? Don't know.

I do know one thing for sure. I don't trust anything this gooberment has to say anymore.

[Starboard]

“The polls and economic statistics are designed to manipulate public opinion”

*************

Is there anything the ruling elites don’t lie about? They only tell us what they want us to know.

[Huskrrrr]

Voodoo economics.

[srmanuel]

They lie so often about so many things, even when they tell the truth, it’s hard to believe them based on their history.

[CodeToad]

“No is starving because tractor sales are up.”

[CodeToad]

In the book, 1984, the Ministry of Truth reduces the chocolate ration from 30 grams per week to 20 grams, but the Ministry of Truth states that it has been increased to 20 grams. Anyone questioning the truth is a criminal.

Same thing here.

[donozark]

10 year bond now trading over 4%. So where are all the “experts” that predicted 4 rate cuts beginning in March? LOL!

[brookwood]

Also, according to the BLS the country has 2.8 million more jobs than it did 4 years ago.

https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-employment.htm

But we know that 10 million working age illegal immigrants have entered the country in the last 4 years. So the legal population lost 7.2 million jobs in the last 4 years, or else we are paying for food, shelter, health care, education, police, fire, utilities, etc. for 10 million more people who don’t have a job. They don’t have trust funds.

[glorgau]

> So where are all the “experts” that predicted 4 rate cuts beginning in March? LOL!

This data release puts the kibosh on that. Guess I’m going to continue doing the t-bill and chill.

[deport]

A Little Help Needed

[thegagline]

So where are all the “experts” that predicted 4 rate cuts beginning in March? LOL!

I’m guessing that the Fed will cut rates going into the election. The rate cuts will be done to help Biden (or some other Democrat) win the presidency.

[Mouton]

If the BLS was doing baseball stats, everyone would be an 800 hitter.