[Widget Jr]

I do not know what Socrates really is. My own belief is that Armstrong created it and a fake history to go along with it just before leaving prison. My sneaking suspicion is, Socrates is an excel spreadsheet he uses as a MacGuffin for his scam. More information about how accurate it really is, Martin Armstrong cherry-picks Bad Forecast Array:

"As I have shown in Socrates Forecast Array Nonsense, the turning points in the Forecast Arrays of Martin Armstrong's Socrates have only a success rate of between 20% and 25%."

"However, he frequently posts cherry-picked success stories on his blog site that suggest otherwise, often saying that Socrates has never been wrong. Here I expose his fraudulent technique of achieving his objective in detail while at the same time exposing a flaw in the system that turned out to be a trap for his helper in the scheme."

Given that, what Brian Griffin posted in #7 will have a better success rate than Armstrong's predictions.

I am not a economist or computer expert. If anyone have better understanding of any of this, please post about it.

[cgbg]

As discussed in this thread most economic forecasters are wrong most of the time.

That is why I make fun of this whole topic.

At this point Armstrong is getting old and frail—the guy looks like he could croak at any time—so I have trouble getting that upset about him.

The new generation of young fraudsters are a real long term problem.