Martin Armstrong's Bad Calls.

Precious Metals Analyst Accountability. ^ | July, 2016. | PMAA

[Widget Jr]

Martin Armstrong

NOTE: HERE is a website dedicated to exposing Mr. Armstrong

Martin Armstrong, while not limited as a Precious Metals analyst, probably has one of the most colorful history's of anyone we have researched. He runs Armstrong Economics and became a millionaire at 15 by collecting coins. Mr. Armstrong is the former chairman of Princeton Economics International Ltd. He is best known for his economic predictions based on the Economic Confidence Model, which he developed. In September 1999, Armstrong faced prosecution by the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission for fraud. During the trial, Armstrong was imprisoned for over seven years for civil contempt of court, one of the longest-running cases of civil contempt in American legal history. In August 2006, Armstrong pleaded guilty to one count of conspiracy to commit fraud, and began a five-year sentence. Since his release he has had a voice in Economic activity and Bloomberg has referred to him as the "Felon Forecaster". We don't want to delve too much in his history, and lauded calls of decades past, but rather some of the more recent predictions that were flat-out wrong or have not come to fruition, yet. I find him vague in a Nostradamus-way and he flip-flops quite often. His calls are often about general, and large, economic events - so he puts himself on the line but these ambitious calls rarely come true.

Ex. In 2013 he predicted the DOW would double by 2015. At the time of the prediction the DOW was approximately 14,000 - today (April 2016), it is at/near its high of 17,737.00. In 2014 he stated that $100+ crude oil was here to stay. Crude is now trading below $40. So both of these are way off base. Let's take a look at some of his other miscue predictions:

Forecaster Martin Armstrong calling for start to a Sovereign debt crisis 2015.75 - he means the 3rd quarter of 2015 but it did not and has not transpired... yet.

August 25, 2011 - Martin Armstrong: Gold to Correct for 1-3 Quarters Before Resuming Uptrend - Gold was $1740 on that date, did correct lower - but never resumed, eclipsed or equaled that high 1-3 quarters after - nor has it 4.5 years later.

June 1, 2012 - Martin Armstrong: Are Commodities Preparing for a MAJOR RALLY? Armstrong is still looking for gold to explode to the upside into 2015 due to the Sovereign Debt Crisis - in this case the exact opposite happened - Commodities essentially collapsed for the, almost, 4 years following his statement.

November 2009 - "Martin Armstrong: Gold Headed To $5,000 And Beyond!" - 6 years later and no where near. That is not saying it can't or won't - just that without a date - it is a rather meaningless statement.

April 19th, 2013 - "We elected Weekly Bearish Reversals in both metals with gold closing at 1397.2 and 2304.1. Gold closed also just below the Weekly Break line 1398.6. This is warning that the FAILURE to exceed Friday's 4/19 high intraday, and a penetration of 1310, we are looking at a drop to $1158. Breach that, and we very well may see $907 in 2 weeks. " No chance. Before he said this Gold had dropped $200 in the month of April, 2013 but it ended about $90 higher after he made the statement and it did not reach or breach $1158 although the following month it came close. Sub $1000 has not occurred even 3 years later.

Dec 2012 - "The metals will be taking off during 2013, Martin believes after the summer, going all the way to 2016. Major support is at 1570." - Gold started December 2012 at $1720 and closed 2013 at $1205 - $1570 was not support and June (Summer), it went below $1200.

Oct 2013 - Gold's going to drop below $1000- and here is an example of his flip-flopping from the previous prediction. Sub $1000 has not occurred even 2.5 years later.

Aug 9, 2013 - "Martin Armstrong has come out with this shocker – Dow 32,000 by 2015! - needless to say this wasn't even close to transpiring.

In 2013 - regarding the above DOW call: "Gold will be a beneficiary too, but in 2015." but later stated ''$650-910 price of Gold coming soon.'' - so this is an extreme flip-flop and neither came close to fruition.

September 14, 2014 - "Is Martin Armstrong Right on Sub-$1000 Gold?" - This seems to be a call that he is sticking with (see below), and I don't disagree, but the timing has not proven him correct to date.

More recently:
"The metals will bottom on the Bechmark targets. Today, gold has collapsed again back down to the 1208 level. All the screaming, hollering, kicking, biting, and name-calling will not prevent gold from meeting its fate. You have to realize there should be a retest of the 1980 high just under the $1,000 mark. There is a risk of testing the Yearly Bearish Reversal at $680. That would probably finish-off the gold promoters for quite a while. I think even a break of $1,000 will make them look rather stupid. But that is what you need at the finale.

So presently, different from most of our researched analysts - Martin Armstrong is not feeding fantasies of an imminent rise in the Precious Metals - which, perhaps should be commended as he would probably get more subscribers supporting and trending the Goldbug's hopes. But it seems his, supposed, prescient calls from decades past, have not been supported with any recent calls that he can put on his resume. He seems as clueless as the rest. By making many varied calls perhaps he believes that one would stick to embolden his reputation - like a broken watch is right twice a day. I think the absolute best you can say about him now is that his colorful calls are way too early - OR at worst he should simply be ignored for any short term predictions.

[Widget Jr]

From the homepage:

"First and foremost - we don't have anything against these guys but there is something very wrong with the current swath of Gold and Silver analysts. They are incorrect so much more frequently than they are correct in predicting the metals prices going back almost 4-years. They almost universally scream 'manipulation!' yet that doesn't stop them from consistently anticipating a rise in the price of gold and silver. Many are compromised by telling gullible investors exactly what they want to hear to utilize their financial services, purchasing coins/bars from them, subscribing to their paid newsletters or accruing hits on their videos. Investors are invariably disheartened and our goal, at this website, is to find one, or more, who's calls have some accuracy or truth. We've focused on these individuals so far - examining their quotes/predictions of the past (click names):"

This is the first in a series of posts challenging the Martin Armstrong on the board. The facts are, he is a convicted of securities fraud and spent eleven years in prison for it. When he got out, he reinvented himself as the all knowing, all purpose expert in everything that he is not.

An example of this is his 3rd quarter 2015 call about a coming sovereign debt crisis. That was when the actual European Debt Crisis from 2009 to the mid 2010s was finally getting resolved.

Notice where 2015 is and what was happening. The debt crisis was getting resolved, while Martin was predicting another debt crisis. This is a typical Armstrong tactic.

This is the first of a series of posts. If anyone is interested, I may create a ping list.

Comments, questions, informed critiques, ranting and raving?

[cgbg]

Martin claims his brilliant computer makes the calls.

;-)

[aMorePerfectUnion]

2016 Article

Better check your numbers and update. Much of this article is silly and and false,.

[Widget Jr]

Look at the top, it says "July 2016".

This is just a start to go over Martin's past bad calls.

[aMorePerfectUnion]

Those numbers have changed dramatically in 7 years.
Look again

[tlozo]

Listening to Martin Arthur Armstrong, a convicted felon who spent 11 years in jail for cheating investors out of $700 million is moronic.

[PeterPrinciple]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cassandra

In The Fall of Troy, told by Quintus Smyrnaeus, Cassandra attempted to warn the Trojan people that Greek warriors were hiding in the Trojan Horse while they were celebrating their victory over the Greeks with feasting. Disbelieving Cassandra, the Trojans resorted to calling her names and hurling insults at her. Attempting to prove herself right, Cassandra took an axe in one hand and a burning torch in the other, and ran towards the Trojan Horse, intent on destroying the Greeks herself, but the Trojans stopped her. The Greeks hiding inside the Horse were relieved, but alarmed by how clearly she had divined their plan.[23]

---

A little history/mythology on prophecy.

“Cassandra did not get half the beating she should have gotten.”

Lazarus Long.

[Widget Jr]

What numbers, when?

Armstrong likes to make calls of specific events by specific dates which don't happen. Or claims he made predictions he didn't.

He claimed the Dow would hit 32,000 in 2015. It did, eventually, in 2021. That is nowhere close to what Martin predicted.

[aMorePerfectUnion]

Start with the first one.
Compare the number in 2016 to the level in 2023.

[PeterPrinciple]

But it seems his, supposed, prescient calls from decades past, have not been supported with any recent calls that he can put on his resume. He seems as clueless as the rest.

---

A few thoughts:

1) People like predictions. It makes people think they are in control. Think Global warming, cooling, the list is huge.

2) I never focused on his predictions, but I did/do find his analysis good and educational. I have learned to place my own bets, not his.

3) We know our federal govt is headed for “bankruptcy”, that is logical and shown to us by history.

We don’t know the when or exactly how.

We woke up one morning, learned the USSR was gone. It happened that fast. But life went on. Prepare for the rebuild.

[JSM_Liberty]

Market predictors exist to make fortune tellers look good.

[Worldtraveler once upon a time]

The posting of this article / site is interesting, in of itself.

Looking about a bit:

The posted link -- while correctly named PMAA -- contains another domain name in the link. Along with it a "Gary."

That is -- http://www.dvdbeaver.com/Gary/gold/martin_armstrong.htm

Starting with that:

Domain: dvdbeaver.com
Registrar: Tucows Domains Inc.
Registered On: 2000-04-26
Registrant Contact State: ON
Country: CA

Going to "http://dvdbeaver.com/" yields "Bad Request (Invalid Hostname)"

http://dvdbeaver.com/

This is because the "home" is of course not dvdbeaver, but http://www.pmaccountability.com/

PMAA

WHois query for maccountability.com

Domain: pmaccountability.com
Registrar: Tucows Domains Inc.
Registered On: 2016-04-04
Registrant contact is privacy protected by Contact Privacy Inc.
Toronto, Ontario, Canada

The text from that splash page shows that it is selling a book: "Nobody Knows Anything - Investing Basics -- Learn to Ignore the Experst, the Gurus and Other Fools. By Robert Moriarty, 3 May 2016. That is a hot link to Amazon.

The book is for sale on Amazon: Nobody Knows Anything: Investing Basics Learn to Ignore the Experts, the Gurus and other Fools Paperback – May 3, 2016 by Robert Moriarty Hardcover, $25, Paperback, $9.99, Kindle: 99 cents.

About the Author: "Robert Moriarty was born in New York state in 1946. He began training as a military pilot in 1965 and became the youngest Naval Aviator during the Vietnam War in 1966. With two years in Vietnam and some 832 missions in combat, he left the Marine Corps in 1970. He worked in computers for a few years before beginning a 2nd career as a ferry pilot delivering small airplanes all over the world. He made over 240 ocean crossings mostly in single engine airplanes. He and his wife of 25 years were computer consultants and began one of the earliest online computer retail outlets in 1995 before retiring in 2000. He began another career running a financial website in 2001 specializing in resource companies. He continues to travel the world looking for the next great mineral discovery and writes in his spare time."

Self-published: "CreateSpace Independent Publishing Platform; 2nd edition (May 3, 2016)" An Amazon printing service.

Books by Robert Moriarty "Basic Investing in Resource Stocks: The Idiot's Guide" (2019) is noted as "independently published." "The Art of Peace" (2016) is also self-published.

He and his wife also operate other sites, related to gold and investing. One reads: Bob Moriarty was a Marine F-4B pilot at the age of twenty and a veteran of over 820 missions in Viet Nam. Becoming a Captain in the Marines at 22, he was one of the most highly decorated pilots in the war. He went on to ferry General Aviation aircraft all over the world for 15 years with over 240 over the water deliveries. He holds 14 International Aviation records including Lindbergh's record for time between New York to Paris in two different categories. In 1996 he began an online computer business on the internet with his wife Barbara becoming one of the early adopters of the internet. Convinced gold/silver were at a bottom in 2001, Bob and Barbara started one of the first websites devoted to teaching readers what they need to know about investing in resource stocks. Bob and Barb now operate two resource sites, 321Gold.com and 321Energy.com where up to 100,000 people a day visit. Bob travels to dozens of mining projects a year and then writes about them."

Bob Moriarty

So while the post definitely stands against Martin Armstrong, it also is hawking -- promoting -- someone's book.

No problem bad mouthing some financial guru. I trust none of them. Not Armstrong. Not a 77-year old Moriarty. Not some web site hosted in Canada. Not some fund manager. Nope. Get information and make your own decisions? Great. Trust some "operator?" Probably not the best idea, especially someone ready to sell you their book(s) and services. Because then you are the market to which they are selling. Promoting.

It is selling books and services where these folks make their income. If their brilliance about gold was 101% spot on, they would do well NOT to tell you their secrets.... Not even for 99 cents on Kindle.

[PeterPrinciple]

So while the post definitely stands against Martin Armstrong, it also is hawking — promoting — someone’s book.

---

Good eye. Keep up the good work. (not sarcasm)

[Widget Jr]

Hey, when starting, I have to start somewhere. The points about Armstrong’s selective and wrong predictions are still valid.

[kiryandil]

Sounds like Martin Armstrong is beginning to get on the last nerve of the local FR neocons...  

[Worldtraveler once upon a time]

---- "Hey, when starting, I have to start somewhere. The points about Armstrong’s selective and wrong predictions are still valid."

Note I did not defend Armstrong. Nor did I do anything except point out that the Moriarty stuff is also self-promotion. I wouldn;'t defend him either. As I wrote:

No problem bad mouthing some financial guru. I trust none of them. Not Armstrong. Not a 77-year old Moriarty. Not some web site hosted in Canada. Not some fund manager. Nope. Get information and make your own decisions? Great. Trust some "operator?" Probably not the best idea, especially someone ready to sell you their book(s) and services. Because then you are the market to which they are selling. Promoting.

"It is selling books and services where these folks make their income. If their brilliance about gold was 101% spot on, they would do well NOT to tell you their secrets.... Not even for 99 cents on Kindle."

From YouTube channel monetization to Twitter blue-check ad revenue sharing to websites for entities which seem much more than they are, this is a world filled with deceipt. On all sides.

Caveat emptor. Be skeptical. Trust BUT verify. When someone wants to hold your wallet, think what that means....

[aMorePerfectUnion]

If he wasn’t better than everyone else, you couldn’t attend his conferences and meet the high end people you do.

Nor does anyone have a 100% track record. Ever.

I’d guess the Zeeposter is trying to discredit him because of ukraine.

[Widget Jr]

Only according to Armstrong or what tracks back to ĥim.

That's more than a little suspect.

[Widget Jr]

There are three types of people who go to MA's conferences.

1. Paid shills there to promote Armstrong.
2. People who don't know any better.
3. Those who realize they are getting conned and never come back.

Martin Armstrong and his Socrates: The Conspiracy of the Cartel
Is a story of a person who was a True Believer who went to one of Martin's conferences and finally realized what was really going on.

[aMorePerfectUnion]

Sorry, but for my long career I served as a mutual fund manager, hedge fund manager, and separate private accounts manager. I’ve been the president of an investment manager association and have known investment managers across the country for more than three decades.

You will not go to any other conference and sit next to central bank managers, family office leaders, etc. at the level of the armstrong economic conference. I’ve been to the other conferences in my former field. No where near the same. And the public can purchase access. In fact you can purchase the recordings if you wish.

Martin Armstrong makes money by selling his computer forecasts. publishing research, and putting on the economic conference. That’s it.

People subscribe, buy research and attend because they receive far more value than what they pay. Simple as that. No one forces them to do it. No one is up-selling them on anything. Most of it he gives away for free on his blog.

If it were not so, they wouldn’t subscribe, buy or attend. I simply can’t verify any of what you are painting from my own experience, nor have I ever had feedback like that from anyone in my network over many decades.

Is he right 100% of the time? Of course not. But his track record is outstanding.

Nor does any realistic advisor expect anything nor anyone to always be right. I don’t know anyone else that has been as accurate across such a large span of topic areas.

But continue on as you prefer. Martin’s long tenure - and his critics - testify to his value.

best.