Stating a “chance of occurrence” is not a forecast. A forecast is a specific number. Stating odds of something being above average or less than average, > 60%, etc is just avoidance of making a forecast. It is intangible and cannot be assessed after the fact as to being a good forecast or a bad forecast, because it is not a forecast.
“If the weatherman says you have a 20% chance of rain, and it’s raining where you are, that means it’s not raining in 4 other places.” - George Carlin......................
If America didn’t produce all that CO2, the entire planet would be 70 degrees every day with exactly the correct amount of rain