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To: PermaRag
But her district is nothing like D+2. It’s about R+7 according to Cook and 538...

That was before the "non-partisan" redistricting. Her new district is no longer R+7. And she won her last election with only a few hundred votes margin.

I believe that the composition of the new district 3 favors Democrat voters now by a slight amount. I have heard differing estimates and D+2 seems a little far to the left. But they peeled off some of her eastern precincts in Routt County and gave them to Neguse (D-Boulder) in district 2. Then they added some southern precincts to her district which were solid Democrat strongholds. Pueblo County and Otero County do not help Boebert at all. Nor does she have anything to offer to them.

Boebert will have an uphill fight at best, to be re-elected.

Her "own goals" do not make it any easier.

79 posted on 09/18/2023 9:27:41 PM PDT by flamberge (Remember, it is not a crime when a Democrat does it.)
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To: flamberge
"That was before the "non-partisan" redistricting. Her new district is no longer R+7."

Actually, yes it is. The facts are:

BEFORE redistricting (2020) the district was R+6 according to Cook. AFTER redistricting it's R+7 (Cook) and "R+15" (538) though you have to divide the 538 in half to make it comparable to the way Cook calculates it:

Cook's 2023 PVI map

FiveThirtyEight's Colorado page

Demographics and election results (including historic ones) for Colorado District 3

The change wasn't dramatic, but redistricting moved this one to the RIGHT for 2022, not to the left.

Boebert's (and Trump's) struggles in CO-3 are due more to themselves than to the makeup of the district. I like Boebert and wish there were more like her in the House, and Trump is going to be the presidential nominee in 2024 whether people like it or not, but there's every chance that they both lose this district next year. If they do happen to win that would be great, but it will very likely be with their usual 51% or 52% at most despite the heavier overall GOP lean of the area.

91 posted on 09/19/2023 3:52:30 AM PDT by PermaRag (Joo Biden is not my President)
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