I know nothing about economics, but, based on just one series of observations, I really feel like something is happening. Because of various Q hints about the world economy and banks, I began, several months ago, tracking the rate of exchange between the British pound (gbp) and the dollar (usd).
I check this daily, and, for months and months, the gbp fluctuated slightly, as one would expect. This is just casual observing on my part, and I have certainly not kept any records, but it seems as though over about the last 3 weeks that the gbp is falling by one cent every few days. No variations, just a linear progression.
At the beginning of this month, the rate was 1 gbp = 1.28 usd. Today, it is 1 gbp = 1.22 usd
As a math moron, I do not have a mathematical way of explaining this, but it seems to me very unlikely that that the gbp fall would not have any upticks and that the increments would be equal.
Perhaps I am all wet. Don’t know.....
Re Money math:
That is interesting. Keep us posted.
Thank you for the heads up on the pound. I’ve recently read reports that the UK is in or is entering a recession. There’s no hard and fast rule about what will happen to the value of a currency during a deep recession, but a currency is likely to fall when a country becomes a less attractive place to invest in. When the last great recession started in 2008, the UK pound experienced a significant depreciation.