THANK YOU FOR A THOUGHTFUL RESPONSE AND NOT THE SIMPLE FALLACIES TOO OFTEN POSTED.
Clearly, I do not have all the answers and want to hear other opinions. There have been a few with insight that sadly no longer post because of the BS-slinging.
Red6 to DUMBGRUNT
They are coming from all over.
Some articles on this topic (Russian sourced- not sure if they’ll open for you, in the home of the free. I’m currently overseas):
https://tass.com/politics/1644821 They report on numbers.
—FROM YOUR LINK: “with over 2,000 mercenaries still fighting for Ukraine, the Russian Defense Ministry reported on Monday.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Legion_(Ukraine) That should work, it’s Wiki.
—DEAD LINK, it happens.
The problem you’re seeing is that in the West you have mass censorship, we simply block the other side, but allow what literally is “propaganda” (the government meddling with perceptions to influence behaviors) by Ukraine. The Ukrainians are very open about this: https://www.nrada.gov.ua/en/european-media-support-ukraine/
—NOT A SUPRISE, “Ukraine appreciates and will always remember the help of all European media, their humanity, self-sacrifice and support! Thank you for helping to keep the information front and withstand the russian military invasion!”
The term “propaganda” had a meaning, i.e. government perception management, but today is used colloquially as a pejorative simply to declare any information derogatory to ones own side as bad, wrong, and which should be ignored. But the fact is, what once was illegal, NATO nations conducting Psyop campaigns which impact the population of another NATO country has today become a reality.
Of course countries are keeping count. BDA is something which everyone tracks, but it’s us that never reports about how many mercenaries we have in country, how many casualties Ukraine has taken et. al. This is a report from February 2022, not long after the war began: NUMBER OF FOREIGN MERCENARIES IN UKRAINE https://eng.mil.ru/files/Number%20of%20foreign%20mercenaries%20in%20Ukraine.pdf
—I WOULD HAVE LIKED TO REVIEWED THIS PDF??? But this what I see:
Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation
Access is denied.
-—Guessing that you are using a VPN? Or a non-CONUS location as noted.
Since then, it appears as if recruitment has picked up in other places, namely South America. The names and faces of those captured or killed that are from Columbia and Brazil has increased by an order of magnitude since wars begin. That makes sense since we will allow Ukraine to recruit in this area which is in our sphere of influence. Poverty combined with large numbers of military aged and even trained males makes these areas ideal for recruitment Realize, the Ukraine uses their state department i.e. consulates and embassy as defacto recruiting stations: https://visitukraine.today/blog/1797/how-to-join-the-international-legion-of-defense-of-ukraine-detailed-instructions-for-foreigners. At a little over $1000 a month for some, these recruits are very cheap.
Here’s a video report from the Hindustan Times: https://youtu.be/eWAXMAkLotI?feature=shared Poverty as you have in Columbia, Brazil, Bolivia, is fertile ground for recruitment.
It’s a sad state of affairs when you need to reach out to foreign media because you have more confidence in them providing a more comprehensive picture of the war than our own which has completely chosen sides and reports more like a German WWII news real: https://youtu.be/s1rsiK1LIKk?feature=shared (1945 and the Germans are reporting how they’re winning).
The Hindustan Times makes a lot of sense. When I fought against Mutadr al Sadr in Iraq, his forces fluctuated from day to day, by a lot. These are not regular forces where people are on a contract or required to stick around. If they head home Ukraine really has no leverage and once the casualties start rolling in, many folks will think twice about strapping a go-cam to their head and chest and wanting to become their neighborhood hero.
I do not doubt that the number of foreign fighters in Ukraine has decreased substantially since March 2022. But it’s hard to get an accurate assessment since you have government censorship on our side and a media that is very pro Democrat, with Biden being a Democrat, and which is owned by the same folks who wanted this war essentially (it’s a corporate media owned and beholden to our oligarchs). So what we’re fed isn’t what is, but rather what some people think you should know so that you act accordingly. News is itself a commercial, with a political message.
—NO MAJOR DISAGREMENT.-—I do not doubt that the number of foreign fighters in Ukraine has decreased substantially since March 2022... News is itself a commercial, with a political message.
As you already know combat has NO relation to what is shown in movies/TV/games... Yes, I believe there was a surge in volunteers in the early days and many of the survivors quickly returned to the safety of their living room.
Back to your question, it appears that the number of mercenaries in country culminated at around 20,000 a little over a year ago (March - May 2022).
—YOUR LINK ABOVE, from Russian sources, is calling it ~2000.
But it’s all hard to tell, since our news is just about 9 year old girls with yellow and blue ribbons in their hair, sucking a lollipop and holding a shotgun. Ukraine good, Russia bad, really dumb stuff but the sort of stuff which moves the masses (emotions win over reason, almost always).
—A VERY INTERESTING VIEW! You probably have seen the Ukraine grandfather taking down a Mi-28 helicopter with a double-barrel shotgun. It was an early form of propaganda meant for internal consumption in Ukraine.
Early in the Russian invasion, I posted a link to a US.GOV site explaining its function and use to improve morale and have fun at the expense of the Russians. Many US citizens did not understand and took it simply as a joke.
If you remember Iraq you had every night the news showing the faces of the casualties, giving their name, where they are from, and then providing a tally by week and month. That is because the news media was against the war, ever since the Democrat party which voted for the war decided to go against the war in the 2004 elections. In this war you see little about the US dead, and there are some, you don’t hear the media question the morality of the use of mercenaries as they did in Iraq with Blackwater etc. You don’t hear any questions about the use of DU ammunition as in Iraq. You don’t hear long stories about the mismanagement of government money, people forced to fight as we did with endless stories about “stop loss” activation of IRR in Iraq etc. Yet Ukraine is recruiting people by force, going so far as to send folks to funerals because maybe family will assemble and a young military aged male can get caught. The point being, the news gets to choose what they write about and how they spin it.
—I RECALL IRAQ WELL because our USMC Infantry son made three tours in Anbar.
He occasionally sent notes within the metadata of photos he sent, also the Marine moms maintain solid communications.
His team captured a “somebody”, he and two others had to attend a trial in the Green Zone, and their lodging was the US Embassy! A LARGE party was held that night and they were invited...They absconded with a can of beer for each team member. And sent photos with explanations to prove it.
While in Iraq every act of abuse (Abu Gahrib) was highlighted, now we hear nothing, even though there are many, many, such cases on the Ukraine’s side (more amateurish, less disciplined, more hate and anger). You have stories about how POW were executed, the use of churches, hospitals and schools to hide military units... In Iraq collateral damage was talked about extensively, now it doesn’t exist, unless it’s the Russians.
Because the Euros are all lockstep with us on this, their media (even more government influenced and controlled) is the same way, one sided pro Ukraine spin, support the war effort and don’t talk about anything bad. Imagine had we used US tax dollars to train and equip Nazi’s in 2003, do you think it would have gotten just a little press coverage as was/is literally the case in Ukraine?
-—Because the Euros are all in lockstep with us on this, IMO they have concluded that they are seriously unprepared for any Russian moves against the Euro block. The Fulda Gap, ain’t what it used to be!
—Germany seeks to build European air-defense network
See https://youtu.be/Giu7WjFzgoY?si=IoKgln9ME1-8iz2h
When you censor one side (Russia), have a media that generally supports the leadership (Democrat), and which has a financial conflict of interest in supporting that side (owned or beholden to corporations / financial institutions and oligarchs which wanted this), what you end up with is what you are seeing today: total one sided coverage.
—When you censor one side (Russia), not one-sided! It is COMMING FROM ALL DIRECTIONS!!!
IF YOU HAVE SIX MINUTES...Detecting Russian Bots on Twitter - #stolenvalor Russian Influencer Claims Purple Heart
and Combat:
https://youtu.be/3X2puLun3-8?si=s_ujRbr8vv9UbmEv
The guy is a retired E-7 (Infantry?), now author, journalist, OSINT Intelligence Analyst, and Programmer.
Again thank you for posting a legitimate response.
The Euros need to carry their own weight. Even outside of the Russian threat, there are many issues where they should be doing more and Trump was 100% right in pushing them. They should at least contribute their contractual minimum of 2% GDP for defense.
But that said, even though everyone is talking a big game because Ukraine is in the news and talked bout right now, everyone knows the Russian threat is minimal.
The Soviet Union is gone. The Warsaw Pact is gone. In fact, all of those European Warsaw Pact nations and some former Soviet Republics (which is the crux of the issue for the Russians) are now in NATO!
By the numbers, Russia today has ground forces 55% ours in manpower (not counting this temporarily surge by calling up reserves and drafting people), they have an air force 47% ours, navy 43% ours. They have a population 44% ours and 40% the number of men reaching military age. They do not have a Latin/South America to reach back to for bodies when they need them like we do. The Russian military relies heavily on conscription which brings with it morale and institutional knowledge issues (high turn over creates amateurs). They have an economy by GDP 1/10 ours, less industry, less high tech. And, they have few allies, weak allies (small military, small economy, small population), allies riddled with their own issues that are unable to really deploy large numbers of troops without exposing themselves to internal or external threats (Armenia is worried about the Turks, the Chechen’s have internal issues...). That is the reality.
The ONLY area where Russia has parity with us is in terms of their nuclear deterrent. That is literally it.
Sure, they try to play the game like we do, but they just can’t keep up and they are usually behind us, and far smaller. For example, the Russian bot you mention, we play these games, in fact corporate America plays them too and calls them influencers... When you compare the Russian Intel Community (IC) to ours, you realize in entirety, they are 1/3 or size, with 1/8 our budget. We’re the big boy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Intelligence_Community#:~:text=The%20Washington%20Post%20reported%20in,include%20854%2C000%20people%20holding%20top%2D >850,000 folks in our IC in some fashion, 10,000 locations/sites, > 1,900 private firms supporting it, with more money than Russia times eight (8). Half the time when we lecture industry about some new threat, we are telling them about a tool or technique which we in some cases have been applying for 7 years. Point being we’re in some cases YEARS ahead and far bigger than the Russians. The Chinese are a different story but they are the topic of discussion here.
The big bad Russian bear is more like a small scrawny old black bear:
https://www.adirondackexplorer.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/BearMangebyJoanCollins.jpg
The Euros know it’s all BS and they are stalling, even now, only marginally increasing their defense spending, dragging their feet on it, and already cutting down on what they said they would do at the height of the scare.
That said, the Euros know that missile defense is important and it has been for a while (they are doing far to little and to late) exposing themselves to serious risks. Even Libya had long range missiles able to reach as far as Ireland, and you have Iran, and others to worry about. The ballistic missile threat has existed for a while and dragging their feet on this issue is reckless. But it’s the Euros and they would rather buy votes by spending on elaborate social programs or environmental pipe dreams just like our politicians do when race pandering, throwing money at homos, some union retirement plan that’s broke etc. Politics is about individuals and their party, not what is strategically the best for a nation.
The only Euro countries that carry their own weight (UK and France) are former colonial powers that to this day need to worry about their interests in South America, Africa, or to a lesser degree the Middle East and Asia. Poland is the exception.
The Russians simply are not that powerful militarily, economically, or in high tech.
The only real threat, is if we accomplish our fantasy by eliminating our primary competitor in the energy sector, Russia.
If we gobble up all their frontier nations which we have been doing: Syria, Iraq, Libya, Venezuela (all oil producers ), in Africa and take over their buffer states as we have done in Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Ukraine and accomplish in weakening and destabilizing them internally, THAT IS WHEN THINGS GET REALLY DANGEROUS!!!
That is when you get to a place where there is a high degree of uncertainty/unpredictability, where you no longer even know all the variables nor have control over them, that is when you could see major disruptions in the global food and energy supply, the use of nuclear weapons, major theater war, crazy things that are unimaginable.
What people like Graham are advocating is dangerous. It’s not only a total war path, it’s also bad even if we get what we want. No different than Wolfowitz with Iraq, he’s advocating something which while it might sound really cool to some today, will likely pan out as a strategic disaster. Imagine the mess we created in Iraq, only now with a nation 5.5 times the population, which generates much of the worlds food supply, energy and has nukes. If you want to light the (((world))) on fire, make people go to bed hungry.
Fortunately, even for us, it is very unlikely that fools like Graham will get what they advocate. Russia is the underdog here, we’re the big boy. We are the ones pushing into their sphere of influence, not Russia into ours.
But they aren’t some chump like Iraq. They know our game, how we use the dollar, freeze assets, use the media, economically sanction, politically isolate, support every opposition leader and cause, use social media, NGOs, run massive Psyop campaigns, use big tech... and they have mitigation strategies for every aspect. Just an example in one area: There is a reason why Russia has their own version of Google (Yandex - Google is an NSA creation! What do you think they do? https://qz.com/1145669/googles-true-origin-partly-lies-in-cia-and-nsa-research-grants-for-mass-surveillance), their own version of Facebook (VK), their own social media platforms like WhatsApp (Telegram), don’t use Cisco routers, nor even MS based OS’s on government computers (they collaborate with the US IC): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astra_Linux#:~:text=Astra%20Linux%20is%20a%20Russian,order%20to%20replace%20Microsoft%20Windows They are much smaller, behind us, but they aren’t idiots, they aren’t a midget, and because we always play the same game over and over, we’re very predictable. We’re a football team that has the biggest, strongest and fastest players in the world, but we always make the same play, and our opponents know that.
Here’s a reality folks don’t want to accept. The Russians sell something which people “need.” Not a want, but a need. Food and energy are essential and all we accomplished with all our sanctions and blowing up a pipeline is a redistribution of suppliers and recipients/consumers, but Russia is still selling their oil and gas, now just more to China and India, while Europe uses less of it at a huge economic cost to them (higher energy costs cut into economic competitiveness): https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-20/china-s-spending-on-russian-energy-jumps-to-6-4-billion-in-june
and
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/indias-russian-oil-buying-scales-new-highs-may-trade-2023-06-21/
In the big picture, there is a difference because the Russians are selling their oil and gas for less than they potentially could be earning
BUT, our impact simply isn’t as big as some would like to believe: https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/akpezlzlovr/russianoilprodrevs.PNG
