OK, the CCP and, hence, the PRC is in crisis. The word for Crisis in Chinese is often said, incorrectly, to be a combination of the words for danger and opportunity. The CCP is definitely in danger but there is damn little opportunity for them that I can see.
At the end of my last post I mentioned goings on in the flooded part of Hebei province. Northern Chinese have access to less than 60% of the generally recognized minimum fresh water per day. Over the past 20 years or so CCP officials have been been pumping ground water out from under the north China plain for public consumption. This means that there is very little water in the top 20-30 feet in the soil. This is causing massive ground subsidence. This is averaging 3-6 feet over an area of about 2,239 miles2. The area around each well forms a funnel as they pump out the groundwater. With the heavy rain and flooding, ground water is being replenished at a massive rate by water entering these funnels. This is manifested by the ground bubbling. Remember what I said about the Chinese being very superstitious? Well this isn't helping because the average person has no clue what the bubbling means. This leads to increased unrest.
The second largest real estate developer in China, EverGrande, has defaulted on some of its Chinese debt instruments (loans). It has also filed for Chapter 15 bankruptcy protection in US Federal Court. Chapter 15 deals with multi-national bankruptcies. As I see it, the effect will be to largely prevent American debt holders from sucking money out of China. I hope none of you have any EverGrande bonds. If you do, sell them for anything you can get. And FAST.
The Biteme regime finally did something right. They have placed the first in a series of restrictions on tech companies investing in the PRC. To be fair, the Biteme regime has generally left in place the Trump policies towards China. Investment money is not the problem for the PRC. What IS biting them hard are the restrictions on sharing high tech corporate knowledge and production methods. The PRC is NOT advancing in military and AI technology. If anything they are back sliding.
The UK, Dutch, and Japanese are actively supporting these measures. Look for Taiwan and South Korea to join soon.
The issue is computer chips. The machines to make the high end chips are ALL made by one Dutch company. The PRC can't even operate these machines, if they could get them, which they can't, much less design and build them. The designs for the high end chips are almost all American with some Japanese. The standard for these chips is around 5 nanometers.
The best the Chinese can do on their own is low tier chips. Think Internet-of-things. Door bell cameras, home security, refrigerators, and thermostats. These chips run around 90 nanometers.
Without foreign tech, whether bought or stolen, the Chinese just can't compete with the rest of the world.
Lastly the CCP is facing a rising wave of internal unrest and their reaction is making things worse. Unemployment is pushing 20%. Unemployment for 20-somethings is worse. So what does the CCP do? They stop publishing the unemployment numbers. They are also pulling news stories about the high unemployment. They are also throttling job opportunity searches. Think online want ads.
More later as it develops. I will repeat my caveat that I have no current access to ANY classified or privileged information. These postings are my take on public news reports filtered through my Intelligence training and education in Economics.
WWG1WGA
Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)
LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)