OK, things are getting more interesting, not necessarily in a bad way, on the China and Russia/Ukraine fronts.
There has been a series of typhoons which brushed Taiwan but smacked straight into Fujian province in the PRC. Fujian is directly opposite Taiwan. This has caused SEVERE flooding reaching all the way up to Beijing itself. In addition to the urban damage a significant portion of the rice/wheat/corn/soy crops have have been destroyed right before harvest. Look for China to increase purchases of US grain crops if they can. If they can't, well, some people in China won't be eating two meals a day much less three.
Shifting to the Black Sea, through a series of naval drone strikes over the last several months, Ukraine has largely driven the Russian Navy out of Sevastopol in Crimea and back to Novorossiysk. Now they have managed a naval drone strike into Novorossiysk. I don't have a good report on damages. This represents a significant increase in the range/capabilities of their naval drones.
As bad as this is for Russia the other things Ukraine have done are worse. Ukraine struct a Russian aviation fuel (kerosene) tanker returning empty from Syria. They hit the engine room but didn't sink the ship. Ukraine has also announced that beginning in two weeks they will treat ANY ship transiting to or from a Russian port as a legitimate target. Russia can't really complain as they have been doing this to Ukraine from the beginning. The only exception has been the grain export deals. Now that is gone. Look for merchant traffic in the Black Sea to dry up as no one will be able to get insurance to sail into a war zone if they could find the crews.
This is going to put a SEVERE crimp in world oil. World oil production is about 100mbpd. Don't hold me to the exact numbers. The demand is inelastic with regards to price. This means that if you need it you will either pay what you have to or do without. A relatively small drop in supply could easily double the price of a barrel of crude.
Roughly half of the 3mbpd of oil coming out of Novorossiysk is medium/sour Russian and half is Kazak super light/super sweet. This will hurt Russia badly in the wallet as there is nowhere else for this oil to go. All other port/ pipeline/ rail facilities are maxed out. This is not so bad during the summer. When things start to freeze up at the well heads things will turn deadly. If the oil doesn't flow, water around the well heads will freeze and crack the casings. This means the wells will have to be re-drilled and Russian doesn't have the capital, infrastructure, or technical capacity to do this. Look for these wells to be off line for at least a decade.
The primary customers for this oil are Europe and east Asia (PRC). The potential replacements for this oil are Canada (Russian) and US Shale (Kazak) respectively. Europe can replace its oil easily enough though they won't like it.
The PRC is SOL. If all of this loss was thrown on the PRC it would amount to a loss of about 21% of its daily consumption. On top of the weather dislocation we could see a significant DECREASE in PRC Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Now consider that unemployment in the PRC is already higher than Italy with a worse demographic outlook. Now factor in the EXTREME cult of personality that Xi Jinping has built around himself (Mao would blush) and you have a recipe for major internal strife in the PRC.
As a general rule I am in favor of internal strife in the PRC which weakens the CCP. I would prefer that their problems be one damn thing after another rather than every damn thing all at once.
WWG1WGA
Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)
LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)