Posted on 06/26/2023 8:11:37 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
I’ve telecommuted for over 30 years, which was a choice I made once home computers and the internet enabled me to establish a virtual law office. However, there’s a huge difference between individuals and small offices making lifestyle and economic choices and the lockdown’s brute force transition from an office-place economy to a telecommuting economy. The former is an organic workplace diversification; the latter is the breakdown of the commercial real estate marketplace with unfathomable consequences for the American economy.
The climate changistas have long dreamed of a virtual business environment, one in which people in white-collar professions work from home. For them, the lockdowns were the perfect catalyst. At the macro level, telecommuting ends traffic jams and stops the need for vast building complexes that despoil possibly more attractive natural environments. It theoretically lowers the cost of doing business because companies no longer need to pay mortgages or rents on office facilities, as well as attendant costs (e.g., insurance, janitorial maintenance, etc.).
For white-collar workers, there are upsides, too. Not having to commute to work can save them hours per day, as well as cutting back on the costs of bus fare, fuel, and car wear and tear. Latchkey kids are no longer an issue because one or both parents are home when the kids come home. You also don’t need to spend money on a work wardrobe or expensive lunches downtown.
There are very real downsides, though. For individuals, there’s the absence of workplace camaraderie and structure. Loneliness is a real risk. The office can also be a dynamic place in which ideas bloom. When you’re sitting before your screen with only the dog or cat for company, it’s hard to focus.
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
Commercial real estate has become a debt timebomb, experts have warned, as office towers remain empty in once-bustling cities.
The new era of remote work means ‘zombie’ workspaces remain vacant - while higher interest rates make it more expensive to buy or refinance buildings.
Some $1.5trillion in real estate mortgages are due this year and next, bringing the market to a dangerous precipice. When the deadline arrives, experts warn owners may be forced to default instead of borrowing again to cover the bill.
Earlier this month, the landlords of downtown San Francisco’s Westfield mall stopped making mortgage payments on its $558million loan amid rising crime and tanking sales.
Meanwhile in New York, building owners are being forced to negotiate extensions on millions of dollars of debt after failing to secure financing.
[snip]
According to building security company Kastle Systems, only about half of office workers in the Big Apple are back at their desks.
And a joint study from researchers at New York University and Columbia University found that offices in the city will lose 44 percent of their pre-pandemic value by 2029 because of the impact of remote work.
Across the country, values for offices have decreased by 27 percent since March 2022, according to data analytics company Green Street.
There is a further cascade of negative ripple effects. Without offices with people, there is little need for any support staff in a building. Less need for ancillary services like coffee shops, lunch/dinner restaurants, street vendors, convenience stores, even little need for bars.
It is the death of cities. I don’t have a dog or pony in the fight, so I really don’t have any reason to care. But for those service industry people who have been shut off, too bad, i guess.
We’ve had “see-thru’s” for some time now.
I’ve continually noticed the oversupply of commercial real estate.
Nightclubs!! Can you imagine the possibilities?
I really believe the plan is to fill up the space with our
“visitors”from the south ... and the rest of the world.
Gov subsidized aliens, gov subsidized rent to the owners ... save the big boys and the banks.
Subsidized payments ... so our friends can spend money downtown ...save the small retail.
The infrastructure is there , ready to go. The citys need a way to get fed $$$ win win for everyone
well maybe not EVERYone .... but you know ...break some eggs and all that....
The result of all this is that commercial real estate is empty. Small businesses don’t renew their leases, and large businesses simply forfeit them. Building owners are walking away from mortgages, leaving their empty office towers to the banks, which cannot possibly find tenants for them. The result is that we are looking at a coming commercial real estate collapse that could make 2008’s home real estate recession look like a cheery block party
************
Where is all the pay your mortgage, you deadbeat rhetoric that we saw back in 2008-2009?
These people knew what they were signing.
Let me guess the culprit, which has to be the government.
It was the CCRA.....”Commercial Community Reinvestment Act.”(I made this up)
“The God damn minorities did it again.”(sarcasm)
They will try to kick the can down the road anyway they can. Even try to rezone these into condos or apartments.
Not gonna happen. They will just put illegal aliens and “refugees” in these buildings, at YOUR expense.
What will these illiterate border jumpers do to pass the time? There will be no jobs.
With no downtown commerce, the cities will descend into anarchy.
We are on the threshold of the death of major cities in America.
They are only reaping what most of them sowed. So much for democrats being *for the little guy*.
Considering that cities tend very much towards voting democrat, these are the consequences of the people's voting decisions.
They are only reaping what most of them sowed. So much for democrats being *for the little guy*.
Cities and mid-sized towns died when manufacturing was offshored. A service economy does not create wealth it offshores it.
In order to actually learn and earn the vast majority of what I know and have, I had to leave home to do it. It was my mom and dad’s home, but the opportunity to learn and earn was what lured me out... So I learned how to design office buildings and earned a living over 40 years doing it.
I’ve humored myself saying “Idiocracy” was a documentary.
Now, looks like Escape from New York is coming true as well.
Why not convert these empty downtown offices into single occupancy, free public housing? Make these cities true liberal Utopia’s where rich guilt ridden white people can make all the tax deductible donations they need to to assuage their guilt. Free housing, food, drugs, booze, 87 genders. Whatevs. Once you “check-in”, you cannot check-out until you prove means of support as there are no hand-outs in Greater America.
Ping.
Thank you Joe.
A lot of paper is coming due - doesn’t look good.
Wonder what’s going to happen to all the unused office space. Retail is bad too.
So that means that around one third of people who commuted to Manhattan from the suburbs before the panic haven't returned.
Absolutely amazing.
I live within 100 yards of a commuter rail station that goes into downtown Boston. Before the panic the station's huge parking lot was full on weekdays. These days it's about half full.
Crop picking, landscaping, food processing, housekeeping. The top 4 for illegals. ALL of which will be replaced by robots and automation in the next 10 years (crop picking is 80% robots in Europe, where they have no similar market of cheap labor)
Mark Simone...an excellent NYC talk show host...
I listen to his program sometimes.
“Excellent” is quite a stretch.
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