Ukraine's Counter Offensive (So far) - Attrition, Adaptation & What Next?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=olH2-_Gtczw ^ | 6/25/2023 | Perun

[Chode]

Most observers (Western and Russian) seem to have expected Ukraine to go over onto the offensive sometime in the 2023 campaign season. Such a move was well telegraphed and a natural extension of Ukraine's stated objectives of taking back occupied territories from the Russian Federation.

By mid-June, it was clear Ukraine had started an offensive effort, launching probing actions at multiple points along the front and finally showing some of the heavy Western equipment it had received over the last six months.

Those initial attacks ran into the teeth of heavy Russian defences, and progress since then has been slower than the Ukrainian High Command may have hoped.

Initially I had planned not to touch these developments for some time - but with the recent information environment extending the full range of takes from 'Ukraine has lost the war' to 'everything is according to plan' I thought it was worth making an effort to try and clearly interpret (as far as possible) the data as we have it now.

So I hope you find this examination of the campaign of the last few weeks useful, and I'll see you all again next week.

[Chode]

weekly Perun

[hardspunned]

Are we to believe that Wagner forces were pulled from the line and turned on Moscow yesterday and the counteroffensive forces could not use that to their advantage? I saw no reports of Ukes racing to take vacated Wagner positions.

[Vermont Lt]

I dunno…they advanced 1 km in Bahkmut today. It took Wagner a month to do that.

[Mariner]

They captured a few sq km in the Bakhmut surrounds

[Rdct29]

I don't think Wagner was on the front lines the last few weeks. Their position in the rear area wouldn't leave a gap in the front line. I do think Ukraine should have launched attacks to take advantage of the confusion. It makes me wonder about the strength of the Ukrainian military that it didn't attack. I heard they did another major call up of military aged men.

[hardspunned]

I’ve heard nothing but Wagner, Wagner, Wagner since fall. There is no way you can pull that percentage of fighting resource out of small theater of operations without, at the very least, exposing a prime target of opportunity for a counteroffensive how many months in the making that is already in attack mode. The counteroffensive has been dead in the water or the Russians are playing the idiots in the West again with this civil war business.

[Kazan]

The counteroffensive has been total failure. Ukraine can't even reach the first line of Russian defense.

Trump is right. This madness and the taxpayer money being poured into it must end.

[sauropod]

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