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To: BroJoeK

10-14 million civilians have left Ukraine since 2/24/22. A third went to Russia, and 2/3rds to EU countries. Most are unlikely to ever return.

Ukrainian’s military has been hollowed out, and going forward the country will suffer from a demographic collapse of military aged men.

The west has selective amnesia about it’s recognition of Ukrainians past NeoNazi problem, they do persist even if the media ignores it.

Russia doesn’t need to take any more land to get Ukraine to expend more troops against fortified positions, Bakhmut has demonstrated that.

Overall then, Russia had been largely successful with demilitarization, and by extension denazification.

I think Ukraine will capitulate by end of summer, sooner if they overextend in their expected pending counteroffensive. Western Tanks, F-16s, Cruise Missiles, etc. won’t help; they just don’t have the man power anymore (not that they ever really did).


86 posted on 05/30/2023 11:30:00 AM PDT by CapandBall
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To: CapandBall; amnestynone
CapandBall: "10-14 million civilians have left Ukraine since 2/24/22.
A third went to Russia, and 2/3rds to EU countries.
Most are unlikely to ever return."

The U.N. estimate is in the 8 million total range, of which around 3 million went to Russia, the rest to western countries.

The current population is put around 37 million.
90% of refugees are women & children which means they can return when peace is restored.

CapandBall: "Ukrainian’s military has been hollowed out, and going forward the country will suffer from a demographic collapse of military aged men."

The US estimates Ukrainian military casualties so far at 150,000 including 20,000 killed in action, plus another 43,000 civilians killed.
The US estimates Russian losses as 230,000 including 50,000 killed in action.

Ukraine's military age male population is in the 10 million range, to which could be added some millions of young women.
Ukraine's armed forces are thought to now total around one million men & women.

Morale among Ukrainian troops and civilians is said to be much higher than among Russian invaders.

CapandBall: "The west has selective amnesia about it’s recognition of Ukrainians past NeoNazi problem, they do persist even if the media ignores it."

100% of Russian propaganda regarding alleged Ukrainian "Nazis" is complete and utter insanity, lies of monstrous proportions, utterly devoid of contact with actual facts.
Indeed, it is the exact equivalent of our own Leftist Lunatics name-calling anybody who disagrees with them on anything as "racists", "bigots", "Nazis", you name it, they are utterly meaningless words used to shut down more serious discussions.

So, in Russian propaganda terms, "Nazis" are simply anybody opposed to Russian hegemony.
In reality, the word "Nazi" is defined as anti-Semitic national socialists.

  1. "Socialists" -- Ukraine is officially a socialist country, sort of: "Article 1 of the Constitution defines Ukraine a sovereign, independent, social (welfare) state.".

  2. "Nationalists" -- the whole Orange Revolution was about putting Ukraine first, and the Euro Maidan Revolt was about closer economic ties to the European Union.
    Ukrainians want to be independent from Russia and more closely aligned with Europe.

  3. "Anti-Semitic" -- according to census reports, the Jewish population in Ukraine has been growing rapidly and is now around one half of one percent of Ukrainians, though what's very likely is that more Ukrainians today are willing to identify themselves as Jewish than were in past times.
    Meaning, whatever past anti-Semitism existed is today perceived by Jews as less than it was.
CapandBall: "Russia doesn’t need to take any more land to get Ukraine to expend more troops against fortified positions, Bakhmut has demonstrated that."

The US estimates Russian casualties in their nine-month long assault on Bakhmut as over 100,000 including 20,000 killed in action.
NATO estimates Ukrainian casualties defending Bakhmut as around 20,000 total, including 4,000 killed in action.
Russian casualties mean they have lost around 1,000 men for every square mile of Bakhmut they took.

CapandBall: "Overall then, Russia had been largely successful with demilitarization, and by extension denazification."

Overall, Russians have accomplished nothing in Ukraine except the murders of tens of thousands and the accumulation of war-reparations debts now in the range of half a trillion dollars.

The Russian people will be generations paying off their debts for this orgy of violence they unleashed in Ukraine.
It's totally insane, and cannot end well for Russia.

87 posted on 05/31/2023 5:14:10 AM PDT by BroJoeK (future DDG 134 -- we remember)
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