The US is only capable of producing 250 rockets a year... Ukraine just fired 32 in that Salvo. NATO is hard pressed to replenish them.
Sooner or later Ukraine will have hold back their firing and or lose targeted positions.
The sooner ain’t from Oklahoma... Kiev is going see a massive swing of momentum to Russia, who has now moved an additional 200K combat troops into Ukraine. The high tide will be Backmuts capture for Ukraine as Russia goes over to the offensive.
“ The US is only capable of producing 250 rockets a year... Ukraine just fired 32 in that Salvo. NATO is hard pressed to replenish them.”
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I have no idea if that’s true. But if those were Patriot missiles being fired, they cost about $3 million EACH. You can burn through some serious money real quick at that rate.
It was 300 PAC-3 MSE per year in 2018, now increasing to 500 per year. Since this short war is becoming a long war, everyone is looking to increase production ability. One more reason the sooner this war is over the better.
The other side is the ability of Russia's missiles and their production rate. Russian targeting, missile accuracy and production is not great either. Russia can launch around 30 missiles per month. PAC-3s are needed for Kinzhals and defense against saturation attacks, while Ukraine already has extensive air defenses. There are 30 countries providing weapons and aid to Ukraine. Even low production rates have a chance of keeping up with what Russian can employ.
Russia fired 30 mixed missiles and one Patriot battery took down most if not all of them. That is a lousy return for the millions of Rubles in weapons expended. On top of that, Russia just make made a premier US weapon system look very good.
#2. Bakhmut. https://freerepublic.com/focus/news/4153704/posts?page=41#41. Russia is going on the offensive where they can, Bakmut, Vulhedar, and Avdiivka because they can't attack anywhere else. Russian logistics is as bad as the rest of the Russian military.
Ukraine is slowly withdrawing from Bakhmut for a reason. It is a Russian meat grinder and Ukrainian forces are working the northern and southern flanks. Prigozhin may technically capture Bakhmut, then lose both Bakhmut and Wagner. This is what happens when Wagner and flanking Russian army do not have unified command or purpose.
#3. The 200,000, 300,000 or 500,000 Russian troops? This has been talked about since the first Russian mobilization from last September. There was no expected Russian Winter Offensive (™) that would have made Zhukov proud. Instead untrained conscripts were dumped in front of Wagner and other Russians forces and sacrificed. Many literally froze or starved to death. Unknown thousands of those men are already dead.
The unstated fact is this: Russian losses have to be much higher than Ukrainian losses or Russia would have already won.
Didn’t Lockheed sign a contract in 2019 to increase production to 500 a year?
Lockheed to double Patriot missile production as orders explode
By Jen Judson
Jul 11, 2018
“There is a lot of interest in [PAC-3 MSE], so much so we are doubling our capacity,” which equates to up to 500 of the missiles per year, Delgado said. This will likely mean adding an extra production line, he added.