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U.S. doubts Ukraine offensive will yield big gains, leaked document says
Washington Post MSN ^ | 4/10/2023 | Alex Horton, John Hudson, Isabelle Khurshudyan, Samuel Oakford

Posted on 04/10/2023 3:53:09 PM PDT by marcusmaximus

Ukraine’s challenges in massing troops, ammunition and equipment could cause its military to fall “well short” of Kyiv’s original goals for an anticipated counteroffensive aimed at retaking Russian-occupied areas this spring, according to U.S. intelligence assessments contained in a growing leak of classified documents revealing Washington’s misgivings about the state of the war.

-snip-

The document forecasting only modest success in Ukraine’s forthcoming counteroffensive indicates that Kyiv’s strategy revolves around reclaiming contested areas in the east while pushing south in a bid to sever Russia’s land bridge to Crimea, the peninsula Moscow illegally annexed in 2014 and now uses as a supply route for its forces inside Ukraine. The potency of entrenched Russian defenses coupled with “enduring Ukrainian deficiencies in training and munitions supplies probably will strain progress and exacerbate casualties during the offensive,” the document says.

-snip-

In the weeks since the leaked document was drafted, U.S. officials have held talks with Ukrainian leaders to ensure that Kyiv’s ambitions for the offensive match its capabilities, said U.S. officials who, like others interviewed for this report, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive matter.

-snip-

U.S. officials also have held tabletop exercises with Ukrainian military leaders to demonstrate how different offensive scenarios could play out, and the consequences of spreading forces too thin, one official said. This could stretch supply lines too far, making it difficult to hold retaken territory while trying to push further into occupied areas.

All parties came away from those conversations with a sense that Ukraine was beginning to understand the limitations of what it could achieve in the offensive and preparing accordingly, U.S. officials said. While severing the land bridge is unlikely to happen

(Excerpt) Read more at msn.com ...


TOPICS: Chit/Chat
KEYWORDS: alexhorton; crimea; herecomestheclowncar; isabellekhurshudyan; johnhudson; marcusmaxitroll; russia; samueloakford; ukraine
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To: Kazan

The only thing getting clearer everyday:

Ukraine 1991-2023 RIP, and there is nothing the collective West can do about it.
Ukraine is a fully, 100 percent welfare nation relying on someone else’s money to survive.


21 posted on 04/10/2023 5:47:07 PM PDT by delta7
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To: Uncle Lonny

Ukraine shows determination to “stay the course” since their declaration of independence.

Just as the USA did!


22 posted on 04/10/2023 7:02:35 PM PDT by Does so ( 🇺🇦...................."Who is Ray Epps?" should be overstamped on every piece of currency.)
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To: JonPreston

Zelensky has no one left to pull the triggers.

No, He will use Polish Mercenaries and Americans! Remember, stopping Putin is the most important task in the world today. Mr. Zelenskyy is the most famous man in the world today, he has but to snap his fingers and all the western leaders will do his bidding. Even if Russia wins, Mr. Z. will lead the underground and bleed Russia dry, just as the French Resistance really won WW II over the Nazis.


23 posted on 04/10/2023 7:31:19 PM PDT by Forward the Light Brigade ( Ride to the sound of the Guns!)
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To: Forward the Light Brigade; marcusmaximus; ansel12; tlozo; Timber Rattler; MeganC; Monterrosa-24; ...

I think Ukraine will move to take Crimea. Of course a lot depends on unknown factors like how much underground resistance is there in Crimea, how many airplanes will some of the NATO countries provide the Ukes, how good a supply of drones do they have, etc. The Russians can escape over the bridge, but not take much heavy equipment with them as there are problems with heavy loads on the rail lines, and large numbers of Russian civilians will be trying to flee like mad.

If they do take Crimea, then they can negotiate whether Russia might lease port space for ordinary commerce which is a lot closer to markets than legal RUssian territory. Also they would be able to reclaim the potential gas and oil resources surrounding Crimea in the Black Sea and potentially restart the exploration contracts they had with the 2 US oil companies that were canceled in 2014 when the Russians took Crimea. So many unknowns to factor, but some important benefits to anticipate.


24 posted on 04/10/2023 7:50:22 PM PDT by gleeaikin (Question authority)
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To: gleeaikin

Why do you ping the entire thread to your posts?


25 posted on 04/10/2023 7:55:46 PM PDT by ansel12 (NATO warrior under Reagan, and RA under Nixon, bemoaning the pro-Russians from Vietnam to Ukraine.)
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To: ansel12

Because it is hard to have interesting discussions if only one person is being communicated with. I grew up in a family where lively discussions among 5 or 6 people were the usual.


26 posted on 04/10/2023 8:46:09 PM PDT by gleeaikin (Question authority)
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To: gleeaikin

I think Ukraine cuts off the northern crossings to Crimea and knocks out the Kerch bridge again. But no invasion of Crimea. Ukraine will use most of their resources to cut the land bridge in Zaporizhzhia. That’s the # 1 priority. Cut the land bridge.


27 posted on 04/10/2023 8:54:11 PM PDT by marcusmaximus
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To: ConservativeInPA
There’s two take aways from this war. Russia is a third rate military power and Ukraine is no better despite support from the U.S.

Partner, You have hit a homer.

28 posted on 04/10/2023 9:08:33 PM PDT by TheConservativeTejano (The Business of America is Business)
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To: gleeaikin

The land bridge to Crimea is cut when a big enough stretch of the E58 is under Ukrainian fire control.


29 posted on 04/10/2023 9:11:04 PM PDT by marcusmaximus
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To: gleeaikin

Freepers ask to be put on ping lists, I haven’t asked to be put on your ping list, in fact, I have asked you repeatedly to not include me in your group pings.

It would be nice if you would do that.


30 posted on 04/10/2023 9:14:06 PM PDT by ansel12 (NATO warrior under Reagan, and RA under Nixon, bemoaning the pro-Russians from Vietnam to Ukraine.)
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To: Forward the Light Brigade

Love your sarcasm 👍


31 posted on 04/11/2023 2:20:35 AM PDT by JonPreston
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