> In today’s global situation, it seems to me that China is the most likely country to receive such a surprise defeat… <
If I had to bet today, that’s the way I’d bet. The US has both a technological edge and an experience edge. And probably also better ship and flotilla leadership.
China’s military is untested, but is steadily improving. So 20 or so years from now, who knows?
When was the last time China’s navy ran into a civilian freighter, hm?