Posted on 03/12/2023 8:22:50 AM PDT by Towed_Jumper
It’s impossible to understand the current moment in history without understanding the ongoing spike in violence across America.
And — due to local city politics & broken incentives in documenting crime — the only legitimate national measure of violence is found in Murder data. It’s just not that easy to hide a body.
You’ve surely heard a lot about crime since May 25, 2020. But it can all be summarized with just one number.
This is a comprehensive review on the demographics of murderers and their victims; published here with the goal of educating the public on an under reported topic, and with the hope of improving criminal justice policy in some small way. 4.5%
The number that summarizes the past 2.5 years of post-BLM life in America. But why?
4.5% of Black Males will commit murder in their lifetime as of 2021, if we choose to do nothing about the ongoing epidemic of violence.
4.4% to 7.2% of yearly Black Male deaths are homicides every single year, with no exceptions, since at least 1968. Over 90% of these are Black Male-on-Black Male.
4.35% is the backward-looking 60-year murder victimization rate of Black Males age 15-74, based on the 410,000 actual murder victims since 1968.
These are the low-end of what the rates could be in reality, given the large number of “unknowns” in the FBI data and the large number of “indeterminate” violent deaths coded by the CDC.
What about repeat offenders, you ask? The most extreme assumptions can bring the 4.5% down to as low as 3.3%. I ask: does that change our conclusions? Do we continue decarceration on the off-chance that only 3.3% will commit murder?
4.5% of Black Males will commit murder in their lifetime as of 2021
(Excerpt) Read more at datahazard.substack.com ...
WILL COMMIT MURDER, percent who will be murdered, according to this analysis, is much higher.
Concur, that was the headline and used in the summary. Then the words deeper in the report seemed to switch to the passive voice with a different meaning: “will be murdered”.
But, if in a street fight 5 are shooting at 5, and 2 die, were not all 10 attempting to murder? All 25 in the two gangs?
belay that, wrong thread... damnit Waaagh
+10!
Scott Adams was right.
The Bell Curve is also right.
you are assuming the 95.5% don’t commit violence or attempt murder but don’t actually kill someone, just injure them
by the doj crime stats that would be a bad assumption on your part.
“Annnnnd Jan 6th was the dem version of the nazis Reichstag fire.......”
Eerie similarities, don’t you think?
I don’t think any of this is supposed to be part of the “national conversation on race” that we’ve been told we need!
It is scary how close the dem party is resembling the N azi version of power grabbing....I truly think they are following the Nazi playbook on how to grab total power....
It appears that way.
That’s a valid observation. Based on the doj crime stats you refer to, what percentage of Black Men will commit either murder and/or attempted during their lifetime? Same, for violence and/or murder and/or attempted murder combined?
Also note that the crime problem isnt just black men, per the related article chart. Black women are significantly more dangerous than white men.
Absolutely, though not in the most technical sense as in “determined ahead of time to kill someone.”
Good catch. I missed that when I originally read through this material.
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