There was no grand plan, there was no “bait”. There is no grand conspiracy (there ARE conspiracies, but the real ones are remarkably petty). There is no cabal of masterminds.
These things are emergent phenomena of greater social forces that are hard to control, or even understand, or they sometimes hang on a random decision or act of an individual. Putin’s decision was a personal one of his own. People cannot be trusted to perform as planned.
I believe in chaos theory to a significant degree too. But I can assure you that NATO has and has had very well developed and constantly evolving plans for engaging RF. NATO by its very nature is a conspiracy. Multiple entities working together to execute on an objective and effect an outcome.
Some comments from Peter Zeihan you may find interesting.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jiyl4wb-wXE
Watch the video.
There are conspiracies, they aren't small, and they have devastating consequences
Or do you believe that climate change is a real problem, and that it is a problem that humans can solve? If so, you are a dreamer.