Posted on 01/17/2023 5:43:08 PM PST by UMCRevMom@aol.com
Update from Ukraine | Ruzzia wants to Encircle Bakhmut | Ukraine should act FAST to defend it https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FPCfrypVCf4
Follow on Instagram up to date uploads. https://www.instagram.com/denys_pilot/
SUMMARY Military MAPS & COMMENTS here: https://militaryland.net/news/invasion-day-328-summary/ https://militaryland.net/maps/deployment-map
Hmmm, “comme ci, comme ça”
Your opinion is “I may limit or destroy usefulness of my post with multiple comments.” I thank you for your concern & appreciate your point of view.
However, others would disagree with your assumption. I receive Freepmail, or even comments to post, by Freepers sharing their appreciation and encouragement to continue. Actually, Freepers share additional info or use articles sited to document their personal research.
The direct purpose is to share information while delaying the off topic irrelevant, snarky comments. Also, those with opposing views are actually posting more relevant comments. :)
It is normally done by radar, but the downside is that draws fire on itself by emissions. The advantage of the new system is that it doesn’t.
INTERESTING COMMENTARY
“How the War in Ukraine Could End Sooner Than Expected”
by Peter A. Wilson and William Courtney
January 17, 2023
https://thehill.com/opinion/international/3816271-how-the-war-in-ukraine-could-end-sooner-than-expected/
There are predictions aplenty that Russia’s war on Ukraine will persist. But it could also end soon. Kremlin regime change, a Russian army collapse, or a Ukrainian win are possible. None of these contingencies should be ruled out.
The West has crossed many self-imposed red lines. It was once reluctant but now provides Ukraine with Stinger and IRIS-T low-altitude anti-air missiles, HIMARS rocket artillery, and Patriot high-altitude air defenses. The United States and Germany have said they will supply infantry fighting vehicles.
Despite this generous Western support and Ukraine’s plucky military gains, pessimists are legion. Some foresee a frozen conflict. Some worry that Russian President Vladimir Putin will dig in his heels, viewing the fight as existential and denying Ukraine’s identity. Some say he plans a long war or predict no one will win.
The conflict has lasted longer than many regional wars, and no victory or retreat is in sight.
The doubters may be right. The conflict has lasted longer than many regional wars, and no victory or retreat is in sight. Predictions merit only guarded confidence when so many have proven wrong, e.g., that Kyiv could fall within days or Russia would quickly gain air superiority over Ukraine.
Policymakers might be prudent, however, to consider not only possibilities of a long war but also how it might end sooner.
Putin Could Fall
Putin’s ex-KGB cohort in the Kremlin could be in trouble. A surprise, poorly executed draft of several hundred thousand men has been unpopular. Defeats in Ukraine have sparked a torrent of hardline pro-war criticism. Some Kremlin insiders may be experiencing growing discontent. Putin could be pressured or ousted by renegade security forces, such as those led by hardliners Yevgeny Prigozhin (Wagner Group) or Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov.
Abrupt regime change could be risky. Russia might become ungovernable. If Moscow persisted in its war, the West may continue to arm Ukraine, enforce biting sanctions, and control some $300 billion in Russian financial assets. Only liberalizers who withdrew forces from Ukraine might relieve the pressure.
Russia’s Army Could Collapse
In World War I, a poorly motivated and provisioned Russian army collapsed, helping bring down an out-of-touch czar. Today, Russia might face a similar risk. While Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visits frontline troops, Putin is mostly hidden from view far from any fighting. No surprise that morale of Ukrainian soldiers is strong and that of Russians is weak. In some instances, enforcers shoot those who refuse to fight.
In October, a British intelligence chief said Russian forces in Ukraine were overstretched and exhausted. Troops train at dilapidated bases, fight with obsolete equipment,and lack medical supplies. Soldiers complain of being sent into a meat grinder. Some mutiny. During this winter some might freeze without warm clothing.
Ukraine’s Army Could Win
It repelled early Russian lunges to seize Ukraine’s three largest cities—Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Odessa. Recently, Ukrainian forces took back half the land in eastern and southern Ukraine, which Russians seized in the second invasion launched on February 24, including the only regional capital taken since then, Kherson.
If the ground freezes deep and long enough, Ukraine’s army might conduct combined arms operations to push deeper into occupied areas. Even Crimea could be vulnerable if Ukrainians seized the rail hub of Melitopol. Such initiatives might take place before the Russian army could train and equip a large second echelon force, with the aim of conducting a renewed offensive against Kyiv or Kharkiv.
Policymakers ought not overlook contingencies that might seem unlikely but could end the war earlier.
Finally, there remains the specter that a desperate Kremlin might escalate the war, such as by direct attacks on supply and training bases in nearby NATO countries or even limited use of nuclear weapons. The former option might be unattractive because of NATO reinforcement of its eastern European flank and a lack of Russian long-range precision attack munitions. The latter might be deterred in part by NATO nuclear maneuvers or by Chinese, Indian, or other international opposition.
How this war ends remains uncertain. It does seem the West will continue to ensure that Ukrainian forces retain their qualitative lead in arms and access to Western intelligence information. A Russian mobilization of more conscripts, even if ill-trained and poorly equipped, could shore up Russian defenses.
The stage might be set for drawn-out attritional warfare. But policymakers ought not overlook contingencies that might seem unlikely but could end the war earlier.
You even sent me freepmail, a freepmail that is totally different from your public post to me, one face in private and a very different face you show in your public communication.
There is a passive-aggressive thing you do that really sets the trolls against you, and it shows in the way you do your threads, posts, and freepmails.
Freepmail did contain additional info from board comment. However, I did not reveal names in either comments
Wagner Fighter Reveals What Made Him Flee His Unit: ‘Shocked to the Core’
By Andrew Stanton
1/17/23 at 12:25 PM EST
https://www.newsweek.com/wagner-group-fighter-andrei-medvedev-reveals-what-made-him-flee-1774420
Wagner Group Commander Andrei Medvedev revealed the reason he fled his unit in the mercenary army, which continues to assist Russia in its ongoing invasion of Ukraine.
Russian President Vladimir Putin launched the Ukraine “special military operation” on February 24, 2022, aiming for a quick victory against his Eastern European neighbor, whose military was perceived as much smaller than his own. However, after nearly 11 months of combat, Russia has struggled to achieve substantial military gains, allowing Ukraine to retake control of key areas throughout the fall and winter.
Amid mounting losses, Putin has relied on the Wagner Group to bolster his military, sending the paramilitary organization into key battles in hopes of turning the tide of the war in his favor.
The Wagner Group, founded by Putin ally Yevgeny Prigozhin, has been viewed as being aligned with Putin for years—though the Kremlin has sought to distance itself from the group, which is known for allegedly disregarding human rights. In recent weeks, they have made headlines for leading Russian advances in Soledar and Bakhmut.
Wagner Group commander explains why he fled
Medvedev, who served in a leadership post in the organization, has fled the Wagner Group and is now seeking asylum in Norway. He crossed the border last Thursday and is reportedly prepared to testify against Prigozhin. In a newly published interview with The Guardian, Medvedev explained his reasons for leaving the group.
He told the British newspaper he “grew disaffected” with the organization after witnessing at least 10 killings of pro-Russia soldiers who allegedly disobeyed commands, as well as the treatment of Russian prisoners.
“The commanders took them to a shooting field and they were shot in front of everyone. Sometimes one guy was shot, sometimes they would be shot in pairs,” he told the publication.
Medvedev said the alleged abuse “shocked us to the core.”
Read more
“The prisoners are used as cannon fodder, like meat. I was given a group of convicts. In my platoon, only three out of 30 men survived,” Medvedev said. “We were then given more prisoners, and many of those died too.”
He said he decided to flee last July after his contract was renewed without his consent and that he is “scared for [his] life” for speaking out against the mercenary group.
Sean McFate, a senior fellow for the Atlantic Council, told Newsweek on Tuesday that he was unsurprised to see Medvedev flee, as troops have realized they are “cannon fodder” for the Russian military, as well as amid growing concerns about how Wagner troops are disciplined.
“The way Wagner maintains discipline in the ranks is not by court marshal or a counseling statement,” he said. “They do it via sledgehammer—literally.”
Medvedev Could Face Threat if More Wagner Troops Follow: McFate
Amid Medvedev’s concerns that he could be at risk due to his public defection from Wagner, McFate said he has a “legitimate concern,” though he isn’t certain Wagner will “go after” Medvedev. He said a response could be triggered if more fighters follow suit.
“If this guy’s defection—which is now very international news—inspires other people in Wagner to do the same thing, then it’s possible Wagner might send a team to kidnap him, drag him back in and explode his head via sledgehammer as a message that you can run, but you can’t hide,” McFate said.
While McFate expects that Norway could make a deal requiring Medvedev to cooperate with international war crime trials, he cast doubt that Russia would care about any rebuke to his testimony, as they generally disregard international law.
“But he’s going to make some noise,” he said. “And it’s not for nothing either.”
Javed Ali, a University of Michigan professor specializing in international policy and diplomacy, told Newsweek he was also unsurprised by Medvedev’s remarks, pointing to “the level of recklessness and brutality of the Wagner Group.”
“The Wagner Group’s paramilitary nature and disregard of international human rights and acceptable standards of military conduct also demonstrate the depths Putin’s regime will pursue, regardless of the destructive nature of their actions,” he wrote in a statement to Newsweek.
Newsweek reached out to the Russian Ministry of Defense for comment.
Sounds like the bunker scene at end of third reich .........
Silly comment: tone, personality style? LOL
No what really sets off “trolls” as you call them is my consistency to support the suffering people of Ukraine & Russia.
Pro-Putin Pushers become agitated if there is no defensive response. I understand, no one want to be ignored.
“Sounds like the bunker scene at end of third Reich”
Absolutely agree.
Both the Russian and Ukrainian people are both entrapped in this “Transnistrian” policy of Putin. He uses this pattern of created separatist conflicts to create corruption and criminality as ‘Trojan horses’ to block progress in reform-minded periphery countries.
These tactics of Putin is part of his geopolitical strategy to creat conflict zones to prevent countries from entering NATO and integrating into the European Union. Of course, this totally CONFLICTS with Putin’s imperialistic plan and legacy to regain strategic points of Russia’s lost empire.
When you have nothing to post but petty and faggy insults it is best to just shut up. A lot of us are grateful for links provided by UMCRevMom. She has class.
Yesterday in Kherson region, 5 fires occurred as a result of enemy shelling
• The first fire after enemy shelling occurred at noon, a residential building burned in one of the neighborhoods of Kherson city. 3 units of equipment and 12 rescuers were involved in the extinguishing.
• In one of the villages of Berislav district, the roof of the school premises burned down after firing with incendiary shells by the occupier. Rescuers eliminated the fire in the area of 30 sq.m. m.
• Already in the evening, the enemy shells entered the territory of one of the city’s businesses, because of this, the warehouse premises in the area of 1300 sq.m. m. Units had to leave the scene several times and return to extinguishing due to continuous shelling. The fire was eliminated early in the morning. There were 5 units of equipment and 24 man personnel at the scene.
I didnt know Azovs were Christian.
... interesting ‘rest of the story’ information provided by author Andres Kasekamp, professor of Global Affairs at University of Toronto giving insight into Russian Federation [read Putin] military and ‘deep-state’ Ukrainian political involvement.
Key people directly involved in the formation of the Azov battalion had both the dubious history of: 1- cooperating with pro-Russian forces in Ukraine and 2- Russian political propagandists.
Also, Ukrainian battalions did little to screen military volunteers including those from Russia. This created the extreme potential security risk for Russian operatives to seize control turning of Azov and other battalions into anti-Ukrainian forces!!!
Also, the far-right political parties in Ukraine actually failed to gain an electoral niche. The parliamentary election in Ukraine instead resulted in the extreme right to receive less than 3% of the popular vote or no representation in parliament! Instead, the Jewish President Zelensky was elected with an overwhelming majority.
Yet to this day, Putin psych-ops continues the spread of his deceitful propaganda.
“If a lie is only printed often enough, it becomes a quasi-truth, and if such a truth is repeated often enough, it becomes an article of belief, a dogma, and men will die for it.” from the book The Crown of Life written in 1869
Which in summation: “A lie can go around the world while the truth is getting it’s boots on.”
Update on the conflict in Ukraine for January 18, 2023. - Bakhmut faces encirclement by Russian forces;
- The Netherlands is considering sending Patriot missile systems after West blames Russia for residential building strike;
- Ukrainian presidential adviser Arestovich has resigned after suggesting the building was hit because of a failed Ukrainian interception of a Russian cruise missile;
- The building strike appears to be serving as a pretext for a planned escalation by the US and its allies;
- Ukraine also lost its interior minister to a helicopter crash;
- The Western media admits current aid to Ukraine is not sufficient, although suggested increases will unlikely turn the tide;
- The US and its allies are preparing for their monthly meeting discussing expanded military aid to Ukraine on January 20, 2023;
https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/4124223/posts The bill bans hate speech and incitement based on sexual orientation and gender identity.
Sorry. I cannot open your link.
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