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To: Missouri gal
thread: There are 20 house races currently undecided. The democrats need 14 to keep control of the house. So lets do a deep dive into what is left. Can democrats still win?

Alaska's ranked choice system makes it much more complicated, but all signs are pointing to Peltola. 13 left. AZ District 1 looks good for dems. 2500 vote lead with 90% in, and they've voted blue since 2013. 12 left.

AZ District 6 has Engel down by 1382, but with the majority of what's left coming from blue Pima county. 11 left. Why does CA take so long? Mail in ballots - which always lean blue (especially in California). CA-3 was solidly blue in 2020, and the majority of what's left are split between Nevada and Sacramaneto counties, which both went blue in 2020. 10 left.

CA 9 is a district that leans very heavily blue. Only 36% of the votes are in, which is why it hasn't been called. But Harder is leading by 13%, and over 90% of the votes left come from very blue San Joaquin county. 9 left.

CA 13 is literally one of the bluest districts in America. They haven't voted for a republican representative, senator, governor, or president in my lifetime. While there has been some redistricting, I don't see it happening. 8 left.

Since 2012, every president, senator, governor, and congressman CA-41 elected has been blue. Redistricting brought the incumbent Calvert over from CA-42 & Calvert won in the primary with a split dem vote - BEFORE Roe. Calvert is only up by 2100, with half the vote left. 7 left.

CA 47 features one of the most watched races: Katie Porter. She's up by 5300 with 72% of the vote in, and the majority of what's left are mail-in ballots. 6 left.

CA 49 leans slightly blue. Levin is up by almost 11,000 with 75% in and the majority of what's left are mail-in votes. 5 left.

CO 8 could go either way. But currently Caraveo is up by 1691 votes, and 97% is already in. Yes, it is possible for Kirkmeyer to regain the lead, but it doesn't look good. The remaining votes would have to skew VERY differently than they've already been coming in. 4 left.

ME 2 has incumbent Golden leading by over 15K with 88% of the vote in. Many towns haven't reported AT ALL, which makes this harder to predict. Much of the votes left are in Lewiston, Bangor, and Auburn - the only three cities in the district above 10K people. 3 left.

NM 2 sees Vasquez up over the incumbent Herrell by just 1300 votes with 99% reporting. What's left? Mainly Bernalillo and Dona Ana, where Vasquez has a sizeable lead. 2 left.

OR 6 has a 4400 vote lead for Salinas with 80% in. The majoprity of what's left comes from Washington County, where Salinas leads by 24 points. Erickson will pick up significant votes in Marion and Yamhill. But it won't be enough. 1 left.

That leaves these toss-ups: CA 21, CA 22, CA 27, CA 45, CO 3, NY 22, and OR 5. If all of the previous holds and the democrats win ONE of these toss-ups, that's the ballgame. If it's Colorado 3 (Lauren Boebert's district), that would be just perfect.

9 posted on 11/13/2022 11:29:46 AM PST by janetjanet998
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To: janetjanet998

So Bottom line we can stop watching this. It’s over, the rats keep the House, Senate and full control of a few states for the first time. This while the country had been turned into a dumpster fire by these same people.


10 posted on 11/13/2022 11:39:04 AM PST by gibsonguy ( )
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To: janetjanet998

Oh, l left out the rats are wrapping stealing the most important Governor’s race in the country.


11 posted on 11/13/2022 11:40:59 AM PST by gibsonguy ( )
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