Midterm House Benchmark - Seats Controlled, not Seats Won

[cotton1706]

Republicans currently have 212 seats in the House of Representatives, so even a 20 seat gain would about equal the House majorities of 1994 (Republican), 2002 (Republican), 2006 (Democrat) and 2018 (Democrat) - see below historical figures.

A 25-30 seat gain (the average midterm gain) would exceed those figures. And a 35-40 seat gain would equal or exceed the 2014 majority high mark.

2018 - 235 seat Democrat majority (D +41)

2014 - 247 seat Republican majority (R +13)

2010 - 242 seat Republican majority (R +63)

2006 - 233 seat Democrat majority (D +31)

2002 - 229 seat Republican majority (R +8)

1998 - 223 seat Republican majority (D +5)

1994 - 230 seat Republican majority (R +54)

1990 - 267 seat Democrat majority (D +7)

1986 - 258 seat Democrat majority (D +5)

1982 - 269 seat Democrat majority (D +26)

1978 - 277 seat Democrat majority (R +14)

1974 - 291 seat Democrat majority (D +49)

1970 - 255 seat Democrat majority (D +12)

1966 - 248 seat Democrat majority (R +47)

1962 - 258 seat Democrat majority (R +1)

[cotton1706]

And as a bonus, a 2022 House majority will be FAR more conservative than the Republican majorities of the past, since most of the old Boehner Boys are gone (dead, retired or defeated).

[bert]

In truth, Republican control of the House is important but not of great legislative import.

Absent 60 votes to control the Senate, the House is sort of irrelevant.

Nancy Pelosi can tell you all about that. She was Speaker and accomplished almost nothing

[TornadoAlley3]

If we have near 94 numbers in the house, we’ll have the senate. And governorships, mayors, DAs …..

[napscoordinator]

The only reason more damage was stopped was two democrat senators. Otherwise, a lot more crap would have passed.

[bert]

But alas, we will not have the honorary ‘94 congressman Rush Limbaugh this time around

[ScottinVA]

“Absent 60 votes to control the Senate, the House is sort of irrelevant.”

Not really… without House support, Biden’s agenda is as dead as Fetterman’s brain.

[Dan in Wichita]

And as a bonus, a 2022 House majority will be FAR more conservative than the Republican majorities of the past, since most of the old Boehner Boys are gone (dead, retired or defeated).

An extremely important point!

[georgiarat]

The 1994 majorities were undermined by Bob Dole and the RINO’s . The 2010 majority was undermined by the fact McConnell and Rove actively worked against three Republican Senate candidates that would have challenged the status quo leaving the Senate in the hands of the Democrats. The 2014-2018 majorities were wasted because of McConnell, Boehner and Ryan. They did not want to support legislation the base wanted to see passed

. If we prevail in have majorities this year will McConnell and McCarthy do the same? My guess they are already scheming how to diffuse efforts to hold govt accountable and will pigeonhole any legislation desired by the base.

[bert]

Which begs the possibly irrelevant question...... what is the Biden agenda?

What I see is Speaker Pelosi ripping up President Trump’s State of the Union speech, impeaching him twice and actually accomplishing very little in the form of Progressive legislation.

Biden accomplishments that survive court challenges are by Executive Order.

[Roadrunner383]

I put a little bit more faith in Real Clear Politcs because they use an average of several polls, and they include Traflagar a lot of times.

Pretty bad numbers for Dems.

Toss Up Seats:
28 Dem
4 GOP

‘Leans’ Seats do not include Toss Ups

Leans GOP - 18 Dem Seats
Leans Dem - 0 GOP Seats

So, no GOP seats are leaning Dems, and only 4 GOP seats are tossups.

RCP has GOP at 228 seats including leans, and the possibility of flipping another 28 Dem tossup seats.

[ScottinVA]

I’m thinking more along the lines of further budget-busting legislation. Biden’s unfettered access to the federal piggy bank will largely come to an end.

[Dr. Franklin]

In truth, Republican control of the House is important but not of great legislative import.
Absent 60 votes to control the Senate, the House is sort of irrelevant.
Nancy Pelosi can tell you all about that. She was Speaker and accomplished almost nothing

The House can use the power of the purse to shut down the federal government. Newt Gingrich did that, but it was unpopular. It certainly can be done again, and if it is targeted to avoid popular things, like Social Security, it could work. Who the Speaker is matters. It must not be McCarthy, or we will get the same old same old RINO enabling of the Dems, no real action like impeachments, decertification of the 2020 Big Steal, or even a meaningful investigation of that sham.

[bert]

You are correct of course.

However, I do not believe there will be the political fortitude in the House to say induce the complete withering of the EPA or Department of Education. It seems that the very existence of the purse is more powerful than the strings

Already, there are Republican congressmen speaking of the hearings they will hold. That means to me that they already know that hearings are about all they can really do.

[EQAndyBuzz]

“RCP has GOP at 228 seats including leans, and the possibility of flipping another 28 Dem tossup seats.”

Just want to get a Republican legislature and as many Republican pickups in NY as possible. If Zeldin wins, I would love to see LoQueesha James frog marched somewhere where it is nice and cold.

[djpg]

“ And as a bonus, a 2022 House majority will be FAR more conservative than the Republican majorities of the past, since most of the old Boehner Boys are gone (dead, retired or defeated).”.

Unfortunately, Boehner, himself, along with Ryan, did not run as what we now know as a Boehner boy. They both ran as conservatives but didn’t do as they said. I hope that that doesn’t happen with the new ones.

[bantam]

Correct—McCarthy CANNOT ABE speaker. Only a MAGA friendly if we the people want to see changes for the positive
Jim Jordan for Speaker!!!!!

[Mr. N. Wolfe]

Agree 100%.

Huge majorities mean nothing if McConnell and McCarthy use their leadership positions to stifle conservatives.

[napscoordinator]

Hopefully the debt limit will be completed in the lame duck. Last thing we need is too fight out the gate.

[napscoordinator]

Every damn present has added to the debt. It’s annoying, 32 trillion for what? I say we focus on paying that off as much as we can. I don’t care if we have to sell everything that Debt is gonna be crashing someday.

[GOPJ]

Democrats are pushing the lie about ballot splitting.

In an election this polarized no one is going to split a ticket unless they’re related to a person in the other party and that person votes with them.

It’s a set up to explain why a Republican Governor wins big (too big for dems to cheat) and the ‘within the margin of error’ down ticket Republican loses.

I’m not an ‘election denier’ I’m a person who believes democrats cheat the vote and have for decades.