Posted on 11/03/2022 10:53:46 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
European natural gas inventories rose by +42 BCF over past week.
EU nat gas storage 95% full.
Current inventories at 3651 BCF.
26.2% higher than 1 year ago.
EU goal is at least 80% full by Nov 1st for winter.
Current projection is for EU to reach 95% by Nov 1st.
(Excerpt) Read more at celsiusenergy.net ...
Does that mean there’s enough for home, commercial, restaurants, manufacturing, etc?
Everything will be fine as long as it doesn’t get cold this winter. Then Speedy’s chart gets thrown in the garbage and chaos will reign supreme.
https://www.politico.eu/article/chance-of-a-very-cold-snap-in-december-climate-experts-warn/
EU goal is at least 80% full by Nov 1st for winter. …Winter? What winter? Thought climate change eliminated winter.
The biggest corporate victim of Europe’s energy crisis may be a $93 billion chemical giant whose flagship plant uses as much gas as Switzerland
BASF, the world’s largest chemicals producer, this month announced heavy cost-cutting measures to deal with Moscow’s gas cutoff. If a cold winter forces Germany into gas rationing, BASF says it could also find itself having to shutter its flagship plant, which employs 39,000 people. And even if that doesn’t happen, analysts warn, high gas prices will likely still force the firm—and many of its regional peers—to close key operations next year, leaving European customers more reliant on American and Asian suppliers for chemicals used in everything from fertilizer and disinfectants to food and packaging.
https://fortune.com/2022/10/25/basf-russia-gas-ukraine-europe-energy-crisis/?dm7yhj
No fertilizer, half the food.
The ‘five year average” is based on having full pipeline supplies from Russia et al, and the storage as a seasonal supplement. How will that look when storage is the greatest majority of supply instead of a supplement.
Which will pull nat gas out of our market driving prices up.
fireman, the storage is to last the entire winter, that’s the calculation for each country.
The countries still need to be thrifty with their usage as they need to now think ahead for 2023
Fertilizer imported from the USA and Asian manufacturers instead...
Its hard to imagine there won’t be enough nat gas for home use.
Countries would restrict industrial use to free up nat gas for people’s heating.
Will there be enough for “home, commercial, restaurants, manufacturing, etc”?
We will see. But remember the nat gas in storage is not the primary source, it is the supplement.
EU will need continued piped nat gas (norway, algeria, etc) plus lots of LNG.
What you said is very, very far from being true.
“The UK’s stores hold enough gas to meet the demand of four to five winter days”
“Its hard to imagine there won’t be enough nat gas for home use.”
Correct. The high margin needs for NG like home use and chemical production that will have no problems going.
The main challenge is with the high consumption/low margin industrial uses. The biggest being fertilizer using the Haber process.
Germany can go back to using coal for the Haber process, but that will take time to reconfigure the plants.
“The UK’s stores hold enough gas to meet the demand of four to five winter days”
Sure, but the UK has no pipeline from Russia. This is purely due to the incompetency of their recent PMs.
LOL!!! The "calculation" is as good as the weather forecasts that it is based on. A month ago they were predicting a colder than normal winter in Europe. Two weeks later they were predicting a warmer than normal winter. One cold snap and it all goes out the window. This prediction is based on nothing more than wishful thinking. I hope they are right this time; where my wife and I live, they get it wrong around 99% of the time when it comes to predicting any unusual weather pattern.
If someone is 25 without much life experience, I do not blame them for going along with this. But most of us on this forum are old enough to know better.
You do remember that 2023 starts in January?
That article is over a year old and well outdated.
For instance here is more current info.
“Centrica has reopened the UK’s Rough gas storage facility having completed engineering upgrades over the summer and commissioning over early autumn, the company said Oct. 28.
The first injection of gas in over five years has been made, with the site in a position to store up to 30 Bcf (850 million cu m) of gas over winter 2022-23.
“The work done so far means that Rough is operating at around 20% of its previous capacity this winter, immediately making it the UK’s largest gas storage site once again and adding 50% to the UK’s gas storage volume,” Centrica said.
“The company restated that its long-term aim was to turn the Rough gas field into the largest long-duration energy storage facility in Europe, capable of storing both natural gas and hydrogen.
The UK has some of the lowest levels of gas storage in Europe at nine days, compared to Germany at 89 days, France at 103 days and the Netherlands at 123 days.”
“These approvals followed a flurry of other required permissions during the summer, including the facility’s reclassification as a storage site from a production field, which have now culminated in its reopening.
As the crisis in European natural gas unfolded, both the UK government and Centrica confirmed that they were in ‘exploratory talks’ about the future of Rough.”
I am wondering about your reply.
Your first sentence says the article I posted is “well outdated”. It stated that the UK has 5 days of storage.
But then you follow it up with an article that confirms the UK has such low storage. OK, yours says 9 days.
So these are the possibilities I am left with.
1) You did not read your own article. You pretended my article was badly out of date but yours confirms the UK has a shockingly low level of storage.
2) Another possibility is that your reading comprehension level is poor. You read the article, but could not see that it confirms the gist of my comment that the UK has a shockingly low level of storage.
3) A third possibility is that you knew your article confirmed the point I was making, but you decided to declare that it was contradicted by new information, as a kind of trolling exercise.
The UK is not the only country in Europe that doesn’t have enough storage to last the winter.
Many people reading this thread will make the same false assumption that Cronos made — that “supplies at 100% capacity” means they have enough for the winter.
But that isn’t close to true at all.
You were responding to a post and an article about Europe in general and you focused on the UK instead, and then used a very old article telling us about the 2017 Rough storage facility and UK’s five days, I suppose to give a misleading impression of Europe’s gas storage situation.
The current article I posted described the reopening of Rough, the already doubling of storage, and with much more to come for the UK, and it also mentioned the abundance of storage in a number of European nations.
You did make the effort to be insulting, and it seems you didn’t read the entire article.
The information in the article I posted is what people need to know if they are to know what the situation for the UK is, your outdated, pre-Ukraine article is of little use to the conversation.
Your pretending that there is a huge difference between 5 days of storage and 9 days of storage for the UK is the equivalent of screaming “I AM AN IDIOT!!” on this forum.
Many pretend and assume that Europe reaching “100% of storage capacity” means that they have enough for the whole winter.
The reality is the opposite.
Most European countries do not have enough storage to survive the winter if supplies are interrupted.
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