Russia is our competitor on the global stage, and today areas historically allied with them such as Syria, Libya... are contested. Even Venezuela (also a major oil producer), allied with them, we would love to do regime change in (of course for democracy, freedom, human rights and sovereignty).
At this point, forget Ukraine, that’s not what this war is about.
By fueling a bitter war like Ukraine, we are depleting a competitor. Russia is diverting resources from their frontier areas to Ukraine.
Example: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-russia-exclusive-idUSKCN1PJ22M (from a few years past).
Their military forces are under enormous stress with their FSB being laregly engaged in Ukraine, as are their airborne forces, special forces, mercenary group (comparable to what we called Blackwater years ago)... Even Russia’s allies who are not entirely internally stable such as Chechnya are sending troops in large numbers to Ukraine. There is substantial material depletion.
We put Russia in an aweful position where war with Ukraine was very likely in October 2021. NATO membership by Ukraine would have been a security disaster for them and that is exactly what we did: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-president-zelenskiy-holding-talks-with-biden-adviser-says-2021-12-09/. Not sure why people were shocked or surprised when Russia invaded.
Ukraine is not going to take back what was lost. They lost this war already by both political and military measures. Politically Ukraine is not going to be a NATO member, what this war is about. And even EU membership which was in scope is today no longer feasible. Likewise, it was always known that Russia would seize the ethnic Russian areas if they invade, and that they did. They took most of what they wanted and that includes a major port city and industrial area.
Keeping this war going today is our call, just like offering NATO membership to Ukraine and causing it in the first place was. So what would be the point of keeping this going even though Russia already attained their military and political objectives, if there is no reasonable hope of Ukraine taking back the lost land? Attrition and pressure.
At this point it’s about keeping the pressure on. Stretching the Russians thin, putting their armed forces under operational stress, depleting their material, redirecting their forces, security forces and Intel from their frontier (Syria, Libya, Venezuela...). The Russians are simply not that big as a conventional force: ~55% our Army 43% our USN, and 47% or our USAF. Going in with ~190,000, and now maintaining about 150,000 troops in Ukraine + Intel, police, etc is putting a HUGE stress on their armed forces.
Ukraine has put Russia in a very weak position on the world stage, something we benefit from. In a global context, for us, Ukraine is a battle, not a war. The Russians may have won that battle, but they are going to lose the war.
Ukraine was a win-win for us. We win if Russia acquiesce and let’s Ukraine in NATO, we still win even if Russia invades - we just win elsewhere.
Interesting post and I agree with you on a lot of it. But, I disagree on the conclusion you reach...
“Ukraine has put Russia in a very weak position on the world stage, something we benefit from. In a global context, for us, Ukraine is a battle, not a war. The Russians may have won that battle, but they are going to lose the war.
Ukraine was a win-win for us. We win if Russia acquiesce and let’s Ukraine in NATO, we still win even if Russia invades - we just win elsewhere.”
The United States government (currently known as Deep State) are the HUGE losers here which will be a big win for the American people whose biggest current enemy is that government’s “new world order” “one world government” “globalization” which is already destroying this country and has additional fascist plans for us if they maintain power.
As far as being in a “weak position on the world stage” we Americans have got to get over the idea that the West is the world stage. Truth is a large part of the actual world is sick of our demanded hegemony (750 U.S. military bases in 80 countries) and in ever increasing numbers is signing on to a multipolar world. The number of BRIC+ applicants is increasing on a monthly basis. Africa firmly supports Russia, even South America does. China, India, Turkey, most of Asia.
It’s true that the U.S. purpose for instigating this war was to weaken, destabilize Russia and bring about regime change. That foreign adventure turned out to be another Biden failure. Europe is in the process of being destroyed economically. The U.S. is severely weakened economically. Russia is doing fine. They have what the world needs; we have “vapor paper.”
This ain’t winning...:-)