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It is hard to understate the incredible shock the Russian war in Ukraine has had on the CCP. They already knew that getting across the largish anti-tank ditch that is the Taiwan strait was going to be harder than they thought but now they KNOW that their army, navy, and air force will likely fare little better than the Russians have.

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The Russians are doing a lot better than the Ukrainian military so far, and now with a new commander of the operation, focus has changed and it’s pedal to the metal on the RF side. Ukraine will lose, is losing, and is only still twitching because the US $$$$ and equipment still flowing in, horrible.

I must disagree with you there. The Russians are steadily losing ground to the Ukrainians at the moment. Over the past two months the Russian equipment they have captured exceeds all the support the West has sent them.

As bad as it has been for Ukraine, and it has been VERY bad, for the Russian armed forces it has been an overly long nightmare they can't seem to wake up from.

Their hardware works worse than the British Battle-cruisers at Jutland. They lost the flagship of the Black Seas fleet, the Moskva, ex-Slava. They took snake island from the Ukrainians and then had to withdraw their troops because they couldn't keep them supplied. Their great drive on Kyiv ran out of food and fuel got crushed.

Now they have had to start calling up young men. This has been nothing an unmitigated disaster. Every plane leaving Russia has been booked solid since the announcement. It is estimated that 320K+ young men have left the country. This is the size of the call-up. Russia only has 6.5M young men in their 20s. This would be like 735K+ young Americans fled the country over a three week period.

Don't get me wrong, I don't like either side in this fight. It is looking like both sides will be much poorer when this is over. (With the possible exception of their respective national leadership.)

WWG1WGA

Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)
LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)