Climate models accurately simulate Pacific Northwest weather patterns, study finds

Phys.org ^ | October 12, 2022 | by Portland State University

[Oldeconomybuyer]

A new study led by Graham Taylor, a Ph.D. student in Portland State's Earth, Environment, and Society program and Paul Loikith, associate professor of geography at PSU, tested how well climate models represent large-scale weather patterns over the Pacific Northwest.

Since all computer models have different strengths and weaknesses based on differences in physics, scientists often use the output from many different climate models to assess projections of future climate change. For this study, the researchers used data from the state-of-the-art sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to test how well 26 different climate models could simulate the range of large-scale patterns of atmospheric circulation (like wind and pressure) found over the Pacific Northwest.

To test the models, the team used a machine learning technique called self-organizing maps to group daily weather patterns simulated by the climate models into a set of 12 categories. They did the same for historical observed weather data. They then compared the two sets of data to see how well they lined up.

The researchers found that the climate models generally simulated the observed wind and pressure patterns very well and that the temperature and precipitation patterns created by the models closely matched the correct patterns found in the historical data.

These results are important because they suggest that current climate models represent large-scale weather patterns reasonably well in the Pacific Northwest.

[hinckley buzzard]

yup.

[logi_cal869]

The researchers found that the climate models generally simulated the observed wind and pressure patterns very well and that the temperature and precipitation patterns created by the models closely matched the correct patterns found in the historical data

I read '1984'...

[butlerweave]

Check out Zoom Earth and you can see weather for yourself from space ,LOL

[ConservativeInPA]

What amazes me is that the climatologists should know this, unless they really don’t understand the mathematical nature of the equations they are trying to solve.

I suspect, but I am not positive, that most climatologists are not mathematicians or programmers. They “consult” others for those details. There were a number of times in my own career that I programmed complex mathematical equations that I really didn’t understand, even though I have a decent math background. I did rely on mathematicians to test and verity the accuracy of my work, but they had no idea what I programmed. It was a black box to them. I suspect there are a lot of black boxes involved in climatology and no one person understands what’s inside all of them.

[PIF]

The researchers found that the climate models generally simulated the observed wind and pressure patterns very well and that the temperature and precipitation patterns created by the models closely matched the correct patterns found in the historical data.

generally ... closely ....

[zeestephen]

For the last five years or so, the European computer model for the Pacific northwest has worked much better than the USA Weather Service model.

At least one Seattle TV news station actually publishes the European model forecast if there is a significant disparity between that and the USA forecast.

The European model is almost always correct!

Current weather in Seattle has been very dry in September and October, which is the traditional start of our rainy season.

We also have an arson related wild fire in the Cascade foot hills that has destroyed our air quality for weeks.

This will be our third La Nina (unusually cold Pacific Ocean temps) winter in a row, which typically creates drought. In 2019 and 2020, that drought stayed south of Seattle. This year, we are catching it, too.

[Don Corleone]

Take 20,000 year old ice cores into account then talk to me you self serving, must publish or perish, morons.

[dsrtsage]

They programmed them to rain every day, just like their breakthrough programming to make San Diego sunny and 70 degrees every day

[rigelkentaurus]

If they are so accurate, then where is the on the record list of specific forecasts that then happened?

[pfflier]

The researchers found that the climate models generally simulated the observed wind and pressure patterns very well and that the temperature and precipitation patterns created by the models closely matched the correct patterns found in the historical data.

These results are important because they suggest that current climate models represent large-scale weather patterns reasonably well in the Pacific Northwest.

This says a lot of nothing. It doesn't describe what they used as parameters for modeling. For what it's worth, they could have used 20 years of actual measurements and concluded that history is repeating itself when it comes to weather. In simple terms, nothing changed from the norm.

Still we are left with the impression that the white coated "scientists" are demi gods when it comes to climate prediction and we should listen to all of their predictions based on this.

[William Tell]

”Right up until they don’t. “

Exactly. If you have dozens of models, one of them will predict the past better than the others. Then when one attempts to predict the future one finds that the model chosen is no better at predicting the future than the others.

[EEGator]

It’s impossible to account for every variable, thus the models are GIGO.

[minnesota_bound]

The prediction is: Cloudy skies then rain and then cloudy skies then rain etc. 100% accurate.