Iran Update, June 10, 2024
The Iranian Guardian Council approved a pool of six candidates that included mostly hardliners for the upcoming 2024 presidential election. The six approved candidates include five hardliners and one reformist on June 9 for the upcoming presidential election.[1] The Iranian regime likely approved the sole reformist candidate to feign political diversity and therefore increase voter participation. Iranian officials have emphasized the need for “competitive” and “participatory” elections.[2] Iran recorded record low voter turnout in its March 2024 parliamentary election, though the real voter turnout was likely even lower than the officially recorded turnout.[3] The Guardian Council approved the following individuals to run for president:
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf (Hardliner). Ghalibaf is a hardline politician who has served as Iran's parliament speaker since 2020.[4] Parliamentarians recently re-elected Ghalibaf as parliament speaker on May 28.[5] Ghalibaf is a long-time member of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), having served as the IRGC Air Force commander between 1997 and 2000.[6] He is a very well-connected politician who maintains close personal relationships with the highest echelons of the IRGC dating back to the Iran-Iraq War.[7] Ghalibaf also served as Iran's police chief between 2000 and 2005.[8] This marks Ghalibaf’s fourth bid for the presidency.[9]
Saeed Jalili (Hardliner). Jalili is a hardline politician and diplomat who currently serves as a member of the Expediency Discernment Council.[10] Jalili previously served as the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) and chief nuclear negotiator from 2007 to 2013.[11] Jalili currently serves as the Supreme Leader's representative to the SNSC.[12] This marks Jalili’s third bid for the presidency.[13]
Amir Hossein Ghazi Zadeh Hashemi (Hardliner). Hashemi is a hardline politician who has served as vice president and the head of the Martyrs and Veterans Affairs Foundation in the Raisi administration from 2021 to the present.[14] Hashemi served as a representative for Mashhad in parliament from 2008 to 2021.[15] Hashemi ran for president and lost in 2021.[16]
Ali Reza Zakani (Hardliner). Zakani is a hardline politician who has served as the mayor of Tehran since 2021.[17] The Guardian Council barred Zakani from running in the 2013 and 2017 presidential elections.[18] Zakani competed in the 2021 presidential election but ultimately withdrew his candidacy in support of Raisi.[19] Zakani previously headed the Student Basij Organization during the crackdown on student protesters in July 1999.[20]
Mostafa Pour Mohammadi (Hardliner). Pour Mohammadi is a hardline politician and cleric from Qom.[21] Pour Mohammadi served as the Justice Minister under President Hassan Rouhani from 2013 to 2017.[22] Pour Mohammadi notoriously served with former President Ebrahim Raisi on the 1988 “Death Commission,” which approved the executions of thousands of political prisoners.[23]
Masoud Pezeshkian (Reformist): Pezeshkian is the sole reformist politician the Guardian Council permitted to run in the 2024 presidential election. Pezeshkian is an ethnic Azeri who has represented Tabriz, near the Iran-Azerbaijan border, from 2008 to present.[24] Pezeshkian was initially disqualified from running in the 2024 parliamentary elections, but the Guardian Council later permitted him to run. Pezeshkian has criticized the Iranian government over the issue of hijab enforcement.[25] Pezeshkian announced that Mohammad Javad Zarif would serve as his foreign minister should he be elected president.[26]
The candidacy of five Iranian hardliners risks an electoral challenge for the hardline camp, wherein the hardline votes could be split among the five candidates. The hardline camp may split its votes amongst the five hardline candidates, which would benefit the sole reformist candidate.[27] It is likely that some hardline candidates will withdraw from the election to prevent the vote from splitting. The moderate-reformist camp, by comparison, appears relatively united. Reform Front Spokesperson Javad Emam stated on June 8 that reformist politicians would not participate in the upcoming presidential election unless one of their candidates—including Masoud Pezeshkian—was approved.[28] Multiple elements of the reformist camp expressed support for reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian on June 10.[29]
The Guardian Council did not approve the candidacy of some high-profile politicians, including former Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani and adviser to the supreme leader Vahid Haghanian.[30] The disqualification of Larijani illustrates the increased isolation of the once-prominent Larijani family from the regime.[31] The Guardian Council also disqualified a close aide to supreme leader, Vahid Haghanian.[32] The disqualification of Haghanian illustrates that the regime is going as far as to reject elements of its own government that it has trusted for decades. These disqualifications emphasize the regime's commitment to engineering who will be the next president by limiting the pool of approved candidates.
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf’s advisers have spoken to Western diplomats in recent weeks, possibly to set conditions for the resumption of nuclear negotiations if he becomes president. An Iranian opposition outlet reported on June 10 that Ghalibaf’s advisers have talked to US and European diplomats over the past two weeks, citing an unspecified European diplomat.[33] The advisers have emphasized Ghalibaf’s willingness to “improve Iran's relations with the rest of the world” and to “cleanse” the Iranian regime of “radical elements” during the advisers’ conversations with foreign officials.[34] The advisers have also emphasized that Ghalibaf would play a significant role in stabilizing the Iranian regime following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s death.[35] Ghalibaf is one of six candidates the Guardian Council approved to compete in the June 28 presidential election.[36] Ghalibaf is a pragmatic hardliner who has previously called for limited political and economic reforms within the framework of the Islamic Republic.[37] Ghalibaf may be trying to signal to Western governments that his administration would be more willing than the hardline Ebrahim Raisi administration to conduct nuclear negotiations and conclude a new nuclear deal.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-june-10-2024
Iran Update, June 11, 2024
Iranian reformist presidential candidate Masoud Pezeshkian is trying to balance his relatively moderate agenda with his need to maintain the approval of the Iranian supreme leader. Pezeshkian emphasized the Iranian president's subordination to the supreme leader in his first televised interview on June 10, stating that “the general policies of the supreme leader are clear, and any administration that governs must implement [these general policies].”[22] Pezeshkian made these comments in the context of implementing Iran's next five-year development plan. Iran's five-year development plan is a document that outlines Iran's budget and development policies throughout a five-year period. Pezeshkian separately promoted reformist ideas in an interview with a reformist newspaper on June 11, illustrating the precariousness with which Pezeshkian must balance his subordination to the supreme leader and his reformist agenda.[23] Pezeshkian defended Iranians’ right to protest, noting that “all protests stem from injustice. . . you can't take the rights of an individual away and tell them to be quiet” and advocated for a less aggressive veiling enforcement policy. Pezeshkian’s June 10 comments stressing the supreme leader's role in setting Iran's policies are not uncharacteristic of a reformist candidate.
Most—if not all—actors in the Iranian political spectrum are ultimately dedicated to preserving the Islamic Republic and serving its supreme leader. Pezeshkian likely seeks to generate support by discussing popular reforms supported by Iranian youth, including economic engagement with the West and mandatory veiling. Pezeshkian—and any other reformist—must work within the system to implement reforms, all of which would need to be approved by the supreme leader. This means that the reformist camp works from an inherent disadvantage because reforms promised by a presidential candidate will not be implemented unless the reforms have the supreme leader's approval, and he is less likely to grant reformist policies. Hardliners do not have the same restrictions because their policies are more likely to be green lit by the supreme leader.
Voter participation in Iranian presidential elections has significantly decreased in recent years due to decreased political representation and election engineering.[24] It is unclear if Pezeshkian, the sole reformist candidate, will instill greater confidence in the integrity of the regime's electoral system and improve voter turnout. The Guardian Council—the regime entity responsible for vetting and approving presidential candidates—boasted on June 11 that the “unpredictable” list of approved candidates demonstrated the equity with which candidates were reviewed.[25] The council heavily engineered the 2021 presidential elections to favor former President Ebrahim Raisi.[26] It is unlikely that Pezeshkian’s participation in the 2024 elections will repair the damage done by the 2021 election engineering or improve voters’ trust and subsequent participation in the process.
Source: Syracuse University Iran Data Portal, 2009-2021 presidential election voter turnout rates
Presidential candidates are measuring their campaigns against the former Raisi administration. Hardline presidential candidate and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf stressed in an interview on June 10 that he would retain Raisi administration officials if he were to win the presidency.[27] Pezeshkian conversely criticized the Raisi administration's economic policy on June 11.[28]
UK-based outlet Amwaj Media reported that multiple regime officials worked to disqualify prominent moderate Iranian politician Ali Larijani from the 2021 presidential elections.[29] A June 10 Amwaj Media report cited an Iranian hardline source who said that former Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Intelligence Organization Chief Hossein Taeb spearheaded efforts to disqualify Larijani in 2021.[30] Taeb maintains close ties to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei.[31] The hardline source told Amwaj Media that unspecified individuals “forced” Larijani’s personal doctor to testify to the Guardian Council that Larijani was physically unfit to be president.[32] Former Law Enforcement Commander Brigadier General Hossein Ashtari separately accused Larijani of nepotism.[33] These claims and accusations led the Guardian Council to disqualify Larijani in 2021.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-june-11-2024