Iranian reformist presidential candidate Masoud Pezeshkian is trying to balance his relatively moderate agenda with his need to maintain the approval of the Iranian supreme leader. Pezeshkian emphasized the Iranian president's subordination to the supreme leader in his first televised interview on June 10, stating that “the general policies of the supreme leader are clear, and any administration that governs must implement [these general policies].”[22] Pezeshkian made these comments in the context of implementing Iran's next five-year development plan. Iran's five-year development plan is a document that outlines Iran's budget and development policies throughout a five-year period. Pezeshkian separately promoted reformist ideas in an interview with a reformist newspaper on June 11, illustrating the precariousness with which Pezeshkian must balance his subordination to the supreme leader and his reformist agenda.[23] Pezeshkian defended Iranians’ right to protest, noting that “all protests stem from injustice. . . you can't take the rights of an individual away and tell them to be quiet” and advocated for a less aggressive veiling enforcement policy. Pezeshkian’s June 10 comments stressing the supreme leader's role in setting Iran's policies are not uncharacteristic of a reformist candidate.
Most—if not all—actors in the Iranian political spectrum are ultimately dedicated to preserving the Islamic Republic and serving its supreme leader. Pezeshkian likely seeks to generate support by discussing popular reforms supported by Iranian youth, including economic engagement with the West and mandatory veiling. Pezeshkian—and any other reformist—must work within the system to implement reforms, all of which would need to be approved by the supreme leader. This means that the reformist camp works from an inherent disadvantage because reforms promised by a presidential candidate will not be implemented unless the reforms have the supreme leader's approval, and he is less likely to grant reformist policies. Hardliners do not have the same restrictions because their policies are more likely to be green lit by the supreme leader.
Voter participation in Iranian presidential elections has significantly decreased in recent years due to decreased political representation and election engineering.[24] It is unclear if Pezeshkian, the sole reformist candidate, will instill greater confidence in the integrity of the regime's electoral system and improve voter turnout. The Guardian Council—the regime entity responsible for vetting and approving presidential candidates—boasted on June 11 that the “unpredictable” list of approved candidates demonstrated the equity with which candidates were reviewed.[25] The council heavily engineered the 2021 presidential elections to favor former President Ebrahim Raisi.[26] It is unlikely that Pezeshkian’s participation in the 2024 elections will repair the damage done by the 2021 election engineering or improve voters’ trust and subsequent participation in the process.
Source: Syracuse University Iran Data Portal, 2009-2021 presidential election voter turnout rates
Presidential candidates are measuring their campaigns against the former Raisi administration. Hardline presidential candidate and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf stressed in an interview on June 10 that he would retain Raisi administration officials if he were to win the presidency.[27] Pezeshkian conversely criticized the Raisi administration's economic policy on June 11.[28]
UK-based outlet Amwaj Media reported that multiple regime officials worked to disqualify prominent moderate Iranian politician Ali Larijani from the 2021 presidential elections.[29] A June 10 Amwaj Media report cited an Iranian hardline source who said that former Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Intelligence Organization Chief Hossein Taeb spearheaded efforts to disqualify Larijani in 2021.[30] Taeb maintains close ties to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei.[31] The hardline source told Amwaj Media that unspecified individuals “forced” Larijani’s personal doctor to testify to the Guardian Council that Larijani was physically unfit to be president.[32] Former Law Enforcement Commander Brigadier General Hossein Ashtari separately accused Larijani of nepotism.[33] These claims and accusations led the Guardian Council to disqualify Larijani in 2021.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-june-11-2024