The Iranian Guardian Council approved a pool of six candidates that included mostly hardliners for the upcoming 2024 presidential election. The six approved candidates include five hardliners and one reformist on June 9 for the upcoming presidential election.[1] The Iranian regime likely approved the sole reformist candidate to feign political diversity and therefore increase voter participation. Iranian officials have emphasized the need for “competitive” and “participatory” elections.[2] Iran recorded record low voter turnout in its March 2024 parliamentary election, though the real voter turnout was likely even lower than the officially recorded turnout.[3] The Guardian Council approved the following individuals to run for president:
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf (Hardliner). Ghalibaf is a hardline politician who has served as Iran's parliament speaker since 2020.[4] Parliamentarians recently re-elected Ghalibaf as parliament speaker on May 28.[5] Ghalibaf is a long-time member of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), having served as the IRGC Air Force commander between 1997 and 2000.[6] He is a very well-connected politician who maintains close personal relationships with the highest echelons of the IRGC dating back to the Iran-Iraq War.[7] Ghalibaf also served as Iran's police chief between 2000 and 2005.[8] This marks Ghalibaf’s fourth bid for the presidency.[9]
Saeed Jalili (Hardliner). Jalili is a hardline politician and diplomat who currently serves as a member of the Expediency Discernment Council.[10] Jalili previously served as the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) and chief nuclear negotiator from 2007 to 2013.[11] Jalili currently serves as the Supreme Leader's representative to the SNSC.[12] This marks Jalili’s third bid for the presidency.[13]
Amir Hossein Ghazi Zadeh Hashemi (Hardliner). Hashemi is a hardline politician who has served as vice president and the head of the Martyrs and Veterans Affairs Foundation in the Raisi administration from 2021 to the present.[14] Hashemi served as a representative for Mashhad in parliament from 2008 to 2021.[15] Hashemi ran for president and lost in 2021.[16]
Ali Reza Zakani (Hardliner). Zakani is a hardline politician who has served as the mayor of Tehran since 2021.[17] The Guardian Council barred Zakani from running in the 2013 and 2017 presidential elections.[18] Zakani competed in the 2021 presidential election but ultimately withdrew his candidacy in support of Raisi.[19] Zakani previously headed the Student Basij Organization during the crackdown on student protesters in July 1999.[20]
Mostafa Pour Mohammadi (Hardliner). Pour Mohammadi is a hardline politician and cleric from Qom.[21] Pour Mohammadi served as the Justice Minister under President Hassan Rouhani from 2013 to 2017.[22] Pour Mohammadi notoriously served with former President Ebrahim Raisi on the 1988 “Death Commission,” which approved the executions of thousands of political prisoners.[23]
Masoud Pezeshkian (Reformist): Pezeshkian is the sole reformist politician the Guardian Council permitted to run in the 2024 presidential election. Pezeshkian is an ethnic Azeri who has represented Tabriz, near the Iran-Azerbaijan border, from 2008 to present.[24] Pezeshkian was initially disqualified from running in the 2024 parliamentary elections, but the Guardian Council later permitted him to run. Pezeshkian has criticized the Iranian government over the issue of hijab enforcement.[25] Pezeshkian announced that Mohammad Javad Zarif would serve as his foreign minister should he be elected president.[26]
The candidacy of five Iranian hardliners risks an electoral challenge for the hardline camp, wherein the hardline votes could be split among the five candidates. The hardline camp may split its votes amongst the five hardline candidates, which would benefit the sole reformist candidate.[27] It is likely that some hardline candidates will withdraw from the election to prevent the vote from splitting. The moderate-reformist camp, by comparison, appears relatively united. Reform Front Spokesperson Javad Emam stated on June 8 that reformist politicians would not participate in the upcoming presidential election unless one of their candidates—including Masoud Pezeshkian—was approved.[28] Multiple elements of the reformist camp expressed support for reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian on June 10.[29]
The Guardian Council did not approve the candidacy of some high-profile politicians, including former Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani and adviser to the supreme leader Vahid Haghanian.[30] The disqualification of Larijani illustrates the increased isolation of the once-prominent Larijani family from the regime.[31] The Guardian Council also disqualified a close aide to supreme leader, Vahid Haghanian.[32] The disqualification of Haghanian illustrates that the regime is going as far as to reject elements of its own government that it has trusted for decades. These disqualifications emphasize the regime's commitment to engineering who will be the next president by limiting the pool of approved candidates.
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf’s advisers have spoken to Western diplomats in recent weeks, possibly to set conditions for the resumption of nuclear negotiations if he becomes president. An Iranian opposition outlet reported on June 10 that Ghalibaf’s advisers have talked to US and European diplomats over the past two weeks, citing an unspecified European diplomat.[33] The advisers have emphasized Ghalibaf’s willingness to “improve Iran's relations with the rest of the world” and to “cleanse” the Iranian regime of “radical elements” during the advisers’ conversations with foreign officials.[34] The advisers have also emphasized that Ghalibaf would play a significant role in stabilizing the Iranian regime following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s death.[35] Ghalibaf is one of six candidates the Guardian Council approved to compete in the June 28 presidential election.[36] Ghalibaf is a pragmatic hardliner who has previously called for limited political and economic reforms within the framework of the Islamic Republic.[37] Ghalibaf may be trying to signal to Western governments that his administration would be more willing than the hardline Ebrahim Raisi administration to conduct nuclear negotiations and conclude a new nuclear deal.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-june-10-2024