IRAN CRISIS UPDATE, OCTOBER 10
Ongoing, anti-regime protests could interact with and feed off of preexisting insurgencies in Iran in ways that could prolong, reinvigorate, and exacerbate the unrest.
Iranian security forces have launched a brutal crackdown on protestors in Sanandaj, Kurdistan Province.
Thousands of oil workers reportedly participated in strikes and anti-regime protests on October 10, which could pose a significant threat to the regime’s oil production if prolonged.
Protest activity will likely increase in size and scale on October 12.
Judiciary Chief Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejei adopted a conciliatory tone toward protesters on October 10, breaking with the pattern of regime senior leader statements since Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s speech on October 3.
Supreme Leader Succession
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-crisis-update-october-10
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
More than 1,000 Iranian oil workers have joined in nationwide protests over the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini, who was detained over an alleged Islamic dress code violation and died in custody.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m_yjJoPkFFA
video
IRAN CRISIS UPDATE, OCTOBER 11
The concentration of security forces in Kurdistan Province could exacerbate Iranian security forces’ bandwidth issues—a key vulnerability in the regime’s internal security apparatus. The regime relies on a small number select, highly ideological units from the IRGC, Basij, and LEC to crack down on unrest and thus does not have enough manpower to cover the entire country.[9] The regime shuffles its forces to where they are needed most—typically the restive border regions—when protests erupt.[10]
Simultaneous protests in the border areas and major cities strain these forces—a vulnerability that protesters and other anti-regime groups may seek to exploit. Anti-regime, Persian-language social media accounts have called for protester solidarity with the demonstrators in Sanandaj and Zahedan.[11] Deadly clashes erupted between protesters and security forces in Zahedan on September 30.[12]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-crisis-update-october-11