IRAN CRISIS UPDATE, OCTOBER 11
The concentration of security forces in Kurdistan Province could exacerbate Iranian security forces’ bandwidth issues—a key vulnerability in the regime’s internal security apparatus. The regime relies on a small number select, highly ideological units from the IRGC, Basij, and LEC to crack down on unrest and thus does not have enough manpower to cover the entire country.[9] The regime shuffles its forces to where they are needed most—typically the restive border regions—when protests erupt.[10]
Simultaneous protests in the border areas and major cities strain these forces—a vulnerability that protesters and other anti-regime groups may seek to exploit. Anti-regime, Persian-language social media accounts have called for protester solidarity with the demonstrators in Sanandaj and Zahedan.[11] Deadly clashes erupted between protesters and security forces in Zahedan on September 30.[12]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-crisis-update-october-11
IRAN CRISIS UPDATE, OCTOBER 12
Iranian leadership is still largely speaking to itself rather than to the Iranian people.
Anti-regime protests occurred in at least 29 cities in 18 provinces.
Protesters continue to demonstrate their capability to coordinate large-scale demonstrations despite expanding regime censorship and increasingly violent suppression.
Commercial and industrial groups are increasingly attempting to coordinate protests and strikes between cities.
Iranian proxy media channels in Iraq and Lebanon emphasized anti-West messaging from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s October 12 speech.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-crisis-update-october-12