Iran Update, August 5, 2024
Iran’s identification of targets in Israel does not independently verify CTP-ISW’s assessment of a likely Iranian strike because it is more likely intended to achieve informational effects rather than to specify the precise targets to be struck. Iran’s messaging does align with CTP-ISW’s assessment that Iran and its Axis of Resistance will most likely conduct a coordinated, large-scale drone and missile attack on Israel, however.[6] The operation could involve Lebanese Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iranian-backed Iraqi militias conducting coordinated strikes on Israel at the same time as Iranian forces. Hezbollah, the Houthis and Iraqi militias have all expressed an intent to attack Israel.[7] CTP-ISW has observed unconfirmed reports that additional groups, such as Iranian-backed militias in Syria and Palestinian fighters in the West Bank may participate in an Iranian-led attack.[8]
More: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-august-5-2024
The full inside story of how Israel assassinated Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran – minute by minute
Hamas boss Haniyeh’s assassination, which was decided on after October 7, necessitated a complicated set of arrangements from a network of Mossad spies
Reports have suggested that the device was placed in Haniyeh’s room weeks or months before the explosion. This is wrong. Security cameras show it was placed on the day of the explosion, at 4:23 pm - some nine hours before it was activated when Haniyeh entered his room. The explosion, which was set off remotely by a robot, took place after midnight, at exactly 01:37am local time.
To prevent possible detection, the Mossad planted a flat brick explosive, 3 inches wide by 6 inches long, that was fastened to the bottom of the bed. To minimise harming innocent civilians, they used a bomb known for its precision which targeted only Haniyeh’s room. As a result, only one specific area of the building was damaged (see the image on this page).
Iran Update, August 6, 2024
Unspecified US officials told Axios on August 5 that the US intelligence community expects Iran and its Axis of Resistance to conduct two waves of attacks in its retaliation against Israel for the death of Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31.[1] US intelligence officials reportedly briefed a potential scenario to US President Joe Biden and US Vice President Kamala Harris in which Hezbollah would conduct an attack on Israel in a wave separate from another Iranian and Axis attack. Intelligence officials noted that it is not clear whether Iran and the Axis or Hezbollah would launch the first attack. One unspecified US official cited by Axios said that intelligence reports suggest Iranian and Hezbollah planning is a “work in progress.”
Iran and its Axis of Resistance would likely use the first wave of the attack on Israel to assess Israeli air defenses in preparation for the second wave of the attack. The April 2024 attack consisted of only one large volley of drones and missiles fired from Iran.[2] CTP-ISW noted on August 4 that Iran and its allies could use multiple attacks targeting Israel to learn and adjust their attacks as they observe how successful they are.[3] Iran and the Axis could adjust the volume or type of projectiles fired at Israel, targets, and launch locations.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-august-6-2024