I’ll make four observations:
1. Nord Stream 1/2 are fixable, and the Russians might hint this. However, if you ask me...they really only want to fix Nord Stream 2 (bigger output capability), and the Germans will only agree to operate Nord Stream 1. So, don’t expect the older pipe to be repaired.
2. Everybody, from small bakeries and bars....to major industry in Germany is currently freaked-out. The natural gas bills put upon them are outrageous. Some bakers are indicating they can survive for about two months before insolvency has to be discussed. Not enough carbonation? Well....the breweries and soda industry admit that their cost is reaching a level where production is impossible.
3. Indoor pools, fitness studios, and theaters are gauging the amount of time they have left before the cost for heating is too much.
4. The 200 Billion Euro ‘fund’ to save everyone from electrical and natural gas bills? Well...you end up paying for it via income or sales taxes. It’s not free, and you can forecast 2023/2024 as being massive inflationary years for the nation.
You can go back and blame ‘ostpolitic’ over the past fifty years and the various parties (left and right) that got deep into Russian natural gas sales. They all contributed to this moment, and there is no way out...other than massive fracking (nearly impossible to get them to realize this).
It will be interesting to see how home heating oil prices in the US impact the northeast; it is a Dem bastion but this will be felt by many people here. On top of the general inflation, I don’t see how this doesn’t hurt them badly.
Generally they take comfort in relying on voter who pay for nothing on their own, but spend taxpayer dollars instead; the problem with this inflation is that retirees and welfare queens are getting hit like everyone else (the dollars, regardless of the source, are buying less).
This has been going on for a long time, Germany has always had uncompetitive energy rates. This has helped create a dispersion of manufacturing, which really is nothing new.
This is a crisis, for now, but the policies that led to this have been baked in for decades. The worst of it was the “green” replacement of coal and nuke. And it was to be replaced by whimsical “renewables”, and Russian gas.
A more idiotic policy cannot be imagined. The Germans are prone to romantic, fantastical thinking. Its a bit odd to think that a people given to such precise engineering standards and craftsmanship have such a bizarre weakness, but there we are.
Fracking won’t get them out of this. Takes too long to explore, do the engineering, drill, etc.
LNG will certainly tide them over. There is a massive wave of LNG incoming.
Add - coal, electric imports (everyone in Europe who can, is scrambling to increase generation to fill German demand).
No gas or super expensive gas will hit every wallet.
Here is my thought. As soon as Biden says we are opening up Keystone and the US will resume oil and gas production immediately, all of this ends, including the war in Ukraine.
I had thought that Trump showed the way, not long ago.
There IS massive fracking, but it is in the US. Energy is fungible and it is a global market. OPEC will go back to their goats and Russia will sell Germany all if the LNG it needs at rock-bottom prices through a pipe that’s already built.
What no one seems to want to see is that Russia won’t make much doing this, and won’t have the money for military ventures.
Heck, peace could break out and the NATO leadership in Brussels could go back to chasing little boys.
There was nothing inherently wrong or dumb about purchasing Russian gas. The problem comes when you start menacing your supplier at the same time. Germany helps a Nazi coup and a Nazi army, supports NATO killing their men, confiscates Russian currency and gold , and supports massive financial sanctions…. When the gas cuts off, they are horrified and conclude Russia was unreliable.
If I go into to McDonald’s and flip the tables and assault the counter workers, I would be refused service. It doesn’t make McDonald’s unreliable. It makes me a jerk.
“You can go back and blame ‘ostpolitic’ over the past fifty years and the various parties (left and right) that got deep into Russian natural gas sales. They all contributed to this moment, and there is no way out...other than massive fracking (nearly impossible to get them to realize this).”
How many elite hack politicians got large bribes from Moscow? To build gaz pipelines. To get addicted to cheap Russian gaz that Germany only paid the equivalent of $20/barrel of oil?
Gerhard Scroeder was the most prominent hack/traitor who earned tens of millions getting Germany addicted to Putin gaz